This article refers specifically to OTC’s projection for the 2021 NFL Draft’s compensatory picks. For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article. Note that this projection does not include compensatory picks awarded via 2020 Resolution JC-2A, of which, per Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk, are awarded separately.
To understand how this projection is generated for each team, please reference the compensatory picks cancellation charts here.
Team | Round | Compensated Departure | APY |
---|---|---|---|
NE | 3 | Tom Brady | $27,375,000 |
LAC | 3 | Philip Rivers | $25,000,000 |
NO | 3 | Teddy Bridgewater | $21,000,000 |
DAL | 3 | Byron Jones | $16,500,000 |
TEN | 3 | Jack Conklin | $14,000,000 |
LAR | 3 | Dante Fowler Jr. | $15,000,000 |
DAL | 4 | Robert Quinn | $14,000,000 |
NE | 4 | Kyle Van Noy | $12,750,000 |
LAR | 4 | Cory Littleton | $11,750,000 |
PIT | 4 | Javon Hargrave | $13,000,000 |
GB | 4 | Blake Martinez | $10,250,000 |
MIN | 4 | Trae Waynes | $14,000,000 |
KC | 4 | Kendall Fuller | $10,000,000 |
NE | 4 | Jamie Collins | $10,000,000 |
GB | 5 | Bryan Bulaga | $10,000,000 |
DAL | 5 | Randall Cobb | $9,000,000 |
KC | 5 | Emmanuel Ogbah | $7,500,000 |
ATL | 5 | Vic Beasley | $9,500,000 |
SF | 5 | Emmanuel Sanders | $8,000,000 |
ATL | 5 | De’Vondre Campbell | $7,000,000 |
BAL | 5 | Michael Pierce | $9,000,000 |
CAR | 5 | Vernon Butler | $7,625,000 |
TB | 5 | Breshad Perriman | $6,500,000 |
ATL | 6 | Wes Schweitzer | $4,500,000 |
CHI | 6 | Nicholas Williams | $5,000,000 |
PHI | 6 | Jordan Howard | $4,875,000 |
GB | 6 | Kyler Fackrell | $4,600,000 |
MIN | 6 | Mackensie Alexander | $4,000,000 |
CAR | 6 | Daryl Williams | $3,350,000 |
CHI | 6 | Chase Daniel | $4,350,000 |
PIT | 6 | Sean Davis | $4,000,000 |
DAL | 6 | Jeff Heath | $3,375,000 |
Compensation over 34-pick limit; not awarded | |||
PHI | 6 | Ronald Darby | $3,000,000 |
CHI | 6 | Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix | $3,750,000 |
PIT | 6 | Tyler Matakevich | $3,575,000 |
TB | 6 | Beau Allen | $3,500,000 |
CHI | 6 | Kevin Pierre-Louis | $3,000,000 |
ATL | 7 | Adrian Clayborn | $2,875,000 |
PHI | 7 | Kamu Grugier-Hill | $3,000,000 |
MIN | 7 | Andrew Sendejo | $2,250,000 |
IND | 7 | Devin Funchess | $2,500,000 |
NE | 7 | Elandon Roberts | $2,125,000 |
IND | 7 | Joe Haeg | $2,300,000 |
MIN | 7 | Jayron Kearse | $2,000,000 |
BAL | 7 | Patrick Onwuasor | $2,000,000 |
Note that although there are 45 eligible compensatory picks listed in this projection, each year only exactly 32 picks are awarded. Therefore, the picks that rank 33rd and lower are not awarded, although the official release will typically acknowledge presence of any comp picks in excess of 32, as this list does with strikethrough text.
Typically, the official release comes out on the Friday before the NFL Scouting Combine. However, since a traditional combine will highly likely not take place this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there may be no reliable date to expect this release. Thus, expect the release to be some time after the Super Bowl (February 7) but before the start of free agency (March 17).
Last year was my most successful projection, correctly identifying all eligible compensatory picks to each team, and being off by one round on only three picks. However, this year I do not expect to be anywhere near close to that accurate, due to significant changes in the compensatory formula, as well as sui generis factors due to the pandemic.
The 2020 CBA revealed, via Appendix V, how the compensatory formula is governed. Notable explicit changes and revelations are as follows:
In addition, there are a few changes not explicitly written but may be implicit:
In addition to these long term changes in the CBA, on August 3, 2020 the owners and players agreed to a short term agreement that alters operations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Those changes included a Reserve/COVID-19 list where players were placed upon should they have contracted the virus, or been in close contact with someone who has contracted it, and also included an opt-out mechanism for players who did not want to play during the pandemic.
This agreement made no mention of how it would affect the compensatory formula, so we are left to try to piece that part of the puzzle for ourselves:
On that note, let’s address that most difficult part of projecting the compensatory picks–accurately identifying where these cutoffs lie. That is because the larger subset of the leaguewide players of which the smaller subset of compensatory free agents are judged against is never the same size, and requires accurately tracking roster transactions for thousands of players–a feat that will always have a margin of error.
At the end of the 2020 regular season, OTC’s database identified a total of 2,158 players that were either on the active roster or reserve lists. This number includes 64 players that were on the Reserve/COVID-19 list at that time. If 2,158 is an accurate number, this is what the cutoffs would look like:
Round | Percentile | Overall Rank | Representative Player |
3rd/4th | 95th (top 5%) | 109 | Derrick Henry |
4th/5th | 90th (top 10%) | 217 | Rob Gronkowski |
5th/6th | 85th (top 15%) | 325 | Saquon Barkley |
6th/7th | 75th (top 25%) | 541 | DJ Moore |
7th/Qualify | 65th (top 35%) | 756 | Christian Kirk |
However, if the Reserve COVID/19 players are not counted, the number would be 2,094, and the cutoffs would look like this:
Round | Percentile | Overall Rank | Representative Player |
3rd/4th | 95th (top 5%) | 106 | Eric Fisher |
4th/5th | 90th (top 10%) | 210 | Alex Mack |
5th/6th | 85th (top 15%) | 315 | Laken Tomlinson |
6th/7th | 75th (top 25%) | 525 | Derek Wolfe |
7th/Qualify | 65th (top 35%) | 734 | Andy Janovich |
The difference is subtle, but in a few cases may change the projection of certain comp picks.
While it is my hope that my projection of where the cutoffs lie is correct, there is enough of a margin of error that the players that are very close to them may fall on the opposite side of where I have them projected. In most cases, if I’m wrong it means that the team in question will still get a comp pick for that player, but that it may be in a round higher or lower. But in a few cases (those are bolded), it could change cancellations, possibly taking away or greatly devaluing a projected comp pick—or possibly adding or greatly upgrading a comp pick.
As mentioned above, CFAs who were cut before the regular season ended are believed to still remain CFAs in the compensatory formula. But just in case, those specific players this year were Gerald McCoy, Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, Sean Davis, Seth Roberts, Vic Beasley, and Jordan Howard.
Similarly, it is believed that players who opted out of the 2020 season will also count in the formula. The only two relevant CFAs in this group would be Michael Pierce and Devin Funchess.
On top of all this, the most unusual contract signed this offseason for purposes of CFA qualification was that of Jameis Winston. I’ll quote what I said back in April on this subject:
Most would have guessed that even as a backup quarterback, Winston would sign a contract that would be CFA eligible, provided he signed before April 27. On April 26, Charles Robinson reported that Winston was finalizing a contract with the Saints. Soon after, Katherine Terrell, the Saints reporter for The Athletic, said that the deal would not be officially processed until after the comp pick deadline passed. However, by the end of the day, Greg Auman, also at The Athletic reporting on the Bucs, said that teams aren’t allowed to circumvent this deadline, thus that Winston might qualify anyway even if the official processing was after April 27.
Proof of this may reside in the NFL’s two official transaction wires on April 28. On the AM wire, it contained a long list of UFAs that did not receive the UFA Tender from their former teams, and “[a]s a result, such players are not compensable free agents under the Compensatory Draft System.” However, Winston, as well as a few other players, were not on this list. Then, on the PM wire, while there were dozens of free agent signings listed, Winston was one of three players listed in a separate subsection as signed under the “Free Agency System Signings”.
In my opinion, this is strong evidence to suggest that the NFL Management Council is declaring that Winston will be a CFA on the basis of the deadline. If so, that’s potentially a blow against the Saints, who would lose a 6th rounder for the departure of AJ Klein, with the signing of Winston canceling out that departure. It would also raise questions on how the NFL Management Council would come to this conclusion. Had the Saints and Winston kept negotiations secret until after April 27 at 4 PM ET, would they have secured that Winston wouldn’t have qualified as a CFA?
However, there’s another wrinkle that may still disqualify Winston from becoming a CFA. That is that he signed for far less than most expected. According to Field Yates, the base value of Winston’s contract is $1.1 million, which is far too low to qualify on its own. But $3.4 million in incentives were also part of the contract. Under the new CBA, incentives that are considered Likely To Be Earned count in the compensatory formula. Tom Pelissero later reported the breakdown of his incentives: based on playtime in both the regular season and playoffs, and the Pro Bowl. Since in 2019 the Bucs did not make the playoffs and Winston was not named to the Pro Bowl, those incentives will be NLTBE. However, since Winston played over 99% of the snaps in 2019, there’s a good chance that the $1.76 million incentive for regular season playtime will be LTBE. If that is correct, Winston’s APY for comp pick purposes would be $2.86 million, and even if he didn’t play a snap in 2020, that should be enough for him to qualify as a CFA.
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