When May 7th passed, the second Tuesday after the 2019 NFL Draft, it also closed out the addition of compensatory free agents (CFAs) into the formula for the 2020 NFL Draft. After waiting to gain knowledge of relevant contracts, we can now take a look at the 2020 compensatory picks list, with only CFA subtractions now possible due to cuts or too low of a salary.
Interest in comp pick accumulation continues to rise, as has been discussed frequently this offseason. 19 of the 32 comp picks slated to be awarded are in the 3rd or 4th round range, a high number in the entire history of compensatory picks, but a number that’s becoming a new normal in recent seasons. Most of the heavy comp pick hitters, such as the Ravens, Patriots, Eagles, Rams, Seahawks, and Broncos show up on this list, while even teams that traditionally place a low priority on comp picks, like the Bears or Redskins, also have comp picks at stake.
While there are currently nine 3rd round comp picks on the board, there is a chance that 2020 could break the record of eleven 3rd rounders awarded that was set in 2017. This is due to $11 million APY being forecast as very close to the 3rd/4th round cutoff. You’ll see two contracts at that APY on the list to the right: the Rams for Rodger Saffold and the Chargers for Tyrell Williams. With proper snap count boosts, both teams could see their current 4th rounders sneak into the 3rd round. This seems quite likely for Saffold, as starting offensive lineman regularly play nearly all possible offensive snaps, while Williams played in 3/4ths of the snaps last year with the Chargers.
The third possible beneficiary is Houston. While they already have one 3rd rounder on the board for Tyrann Mathieu, they could get a second 3rd rounder for Kareem Jackson. In order for that to happen, Jackson, at $11 million APY, would need to be valued in the 3rd round, while Bradley Roby, at $10 million APY, would need to stay in the 4th round. In this scenario, Roby would instead cancel out the 7th round valued contract of Kendall Lamm. This provides a potential avenue of strategy for the Texans. Should Jackson play a high level of snaps with the Broncos that gets him to the 3rd round level, the Texans could try limiting Roby’s snaps in situations where the outcome of the game is decided, or if Houston is locked into a playoff seed near the end of the regular season.
After researching details on their most recently expired contracts, there are two players that I am removing from OTC’s comp pick program because I think there is a very good change they will not count in the 2020 compensatory formula. Those two players are Mike Iupati, going from Arizona to Seattle, and Latavius Murray, going from Minnesota to New Orleans. In both cases, shortened contracts are the reason why I’m guessing they will not qualify. Both players renegotiated their contracts on the same day (March 15, two days into the 2018 league year) that altered the 2019 years to allow the contracts to expire one year earlier than planning at signing. There is precedent to suggest that these type of shortenings disqualify players from counting in the compensatory formula–Laveranues Coles in 2010 and Steven Jackson in 2014 are two examples.
I have higher confidence that Murray will not count as opposed to Iupati due to the difference in how the 2019 years were altered. In Iupati’s case, 2019 was turned into a void year, something that the Cardinals may have intentionally done as they later restructured $4 million of his remaining base salary to defer his cap hit. But for Murray, the Vikings outright deleted his 2019 year, resulting in $600,000 of his prorated signing bonus to accelerate from 2019 to 2018. AdamJT13, the pioneer of comp pick projection, observed that “[p]layers who have had contract years simply deleted — not converted to voidable years — by renegotiation have never qualified for the equation”.
Team | Round | Compensated Free Agent | APY |
---|---|---|---|
PHI | 3 | Nick Foles | $22,000,000 |
NE | 3 | Trey Flowers | $18,000,000 |
BAL | 3 | Za’Darius Smith | $16,500,000 |
NE | 3 | Trent Brown | $16,250,000 |
NYG | 3 | Landon Collins | $14,000,000 |
HOU | 3 | Tyrann Mathieu | $14,000,000 |
SEA | 3 | Earl Thomas | $13,750,000 |
PIT | 3 | Le’Veon Bell | $13,125,000 |
MIA | 3 | Ja’Wuan James | $12,750,000 |
MIN | 3 | Sheldon Richardson | $11,933,333 |
LAR | 4 | Rodger Saffold | $11,000,000 |
LAC | 4 | Tyrell Williams | $11,000,000 |
LAR | 4 | Lamarcus Joyner | $10,150,000 |
WAS | 4 | Jamison Crowder | $9,500,000 |
PHI | 4 | Golden Tate | $9,350,000 |
BAL | 4 | John Brown | $9,000,000 |
SEA | 4 | Justin Coleman | $9,000,000 |
KC | 4 | Steven Nelson | $8,500,000 |
CHI | 4 | Adrian Amos | $8,500,000 |
MIA | 5 | Cameron Wake | $7,666,667 |
NE | 6 | Cordarrelle Patterson | $5,000,000 |
NE | 6 | Malcom Brown | $5,000,000 |
SEA | 6 | Shamar Stephen | $4,150,000 |
DEN | 6 | Shaquil Barrett | $4,000,000 |
SEA | 7 | Mike Davis | $3,000,000 |
NYG | 7 | Mario Edwards | $2,500,000 |
HOU | 7 | Kendall Lamm | $2,225,000 |
MIN | 7 | Trevor Siemian | $2,000,000 |
DEN | 7 | Max Garcia | $2,000,000 |
HOU | 7 | Christian Covington | $1,687,500 |
MIN | 7 | Tom Compton | $1,600,000 |
DEN | 7 | Tramaine Brock | $1,325,000 |
Compensation over 32-pick limit; not awarded | |||
NYG | 7 | Josh Mauro | $1,300,000 |
NYG | 7 | Kerry Wynn | $1,300,000 |
MIN | 7 | Andrew Sendejo | $1,200,000 |
CAR | 7 | David Mayo | $1,200,000 |
DAL | 7 | net value | |
TB | 7 | net value |
For the next few months, the most important thing to watch for with regard to 2020 compensatory picks is if any CFAs fail to make and stay on their team’s roster. If any CFA is permanently cut from their team’s roster before Week 10, they will not qualify for the compensatory formula. Using a little intuition, there are some teams that could feasibly improve their standing in 2020 compensatory picks if they cut certain players, and other teams that need to hope that certain teams don’t cut some of their former players.
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