2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC North

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  AFC North

NFC East   |   AFC East

NFC West   |   AFC West

NFC South   |   AFC South

NFC North

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view Read the rest

Identifying Value in the NFL Running Back

Last week we looked at wide receivers and some various ways to look at pricing and value. This week I wanted to look at running backs but from an overall standpoint. Rather than just veterans we’ll also consider rookies here as we again look to answer whether or not it’s worth signing or using a high draft pick a running back.

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The Metrics

I wanted to break down the group into two primary categories. One is very simple- absolute production which is simply yards gained on the ground plus yards gained through the air (yards from scrimmage).

The second … Read the rest

Examining the Upcoming Free Agency of DeMarco Murray

The Dallas Cowboys will have an interesting contractual decision on their hands with running back DeMarco Murray. Murray is on pace for a 2,000 yard season, a feat just 6 players have accomplished since 1980. He has become the focal point of a Cowboys offense that has become a throwback to the decade where teams featured one running back and the offense flowed through that player. Set to be a free agent the question is how should the Cowboys approach the contract.

The Running Back Market

There is really only one massive contract for running backs, the contract for … Read the rest

A Close Look at the Tyron Smith Contract Extension

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Since we now have the basic details of the Cowboys extension with left tackle Tyron Smith, I thought it would be worth looking at why calling him the highest paid player at the position is not exactly accurate.

Though Smith carries the highest annual value of any tackle, $12.2 million versus $11.5 million for Joe Thomas, the cash flows will tell a slightly different story. Here are the running cash flows of the two contracts:

SeasonThomasSmith
Year 1$20,700,000$20,000,000
Year 2$30,900,000$30,000,000
Year 3$42,000,000$40,000,000
Year 4$51,000,000$50,000,000
Year 5$60,500,000
Read the rest

Looking at Jamaal Charles’ Contract and Chiefs Salary Cap

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According to KCTV5, Chiefs star running back Jamaal Charles is going to hold out of training camp in the hopes of earning a new contract with the Chiefs.

Charles’ situation is not all that different than the contract situation of Andre Johnson that I have alluded to in the past concerning the disgruntled wide receiver playing for years on an under market contract. Charles was one of the last signings under the old CBA, agreeing to a five year extension worth $27 million in December of 2010. Rather than fighting the uncertainty of the labor situation, Charles agreed to … Read the rest

Projecting a Contract for JJ Watt

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The other day there was some discussion on Twitter about Texans’ Defensive End JJ Watt receiving a contract extension worth in the ballpark of $23 million a season. That number seems crazy, so I figured I may as well jump in and take a look at Watt and where he might stand in the market and the type of contract I think he could receive.

The Player

Watt is a unique talent in part because of the position he plays on the field. In general most defenses that employ a 34 front do not have defensive ends that generate … Read the rest

Looking at the Sando/ESPN QB Rankings from a Salary Perspective

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Mike Sando did a terrific piece on ESPN Insider (subscription required) in which he polled a number of people in football to rank the starting Quarterbacks in the NFL. Sando grouped the quarterbacks into tiers based on the rankings and also provided their overall ranking in his article. I wanted to examine that list from a salary standpoint and see if the consensus opinions match the price tags associated with each player.

Because rookie contracts are pre-determined I only wanted to look at veteran players (that means no Luck, Bradford, Newton, etc…) who I felt would start (that also … Read the rest