Category Archive: Player Valuations

May 11

Revaluing the Running Back Marketplace

Now that contracts have kind of slowed down I wanted to get back into doing positional valuations, this time with a focus on Running Backs. As is usual the raw data comes from Pro Football Focus with the analysis of numbers being somewhat unique. In general I want to grade running backs on 3 categories: Yards After Contact,  Player Generated Yards Before Contact, and Player Generated Yards Per Target.

Yards After Contact

I think this is pretty simple and straightforward. Once touched whatever yards a runner gains are essentially all due to his effort. The average in the league last … Read the rest

Apr 29

Thoughts on the Aaron Rodgers Extension

Full details were released today on the Aaron Rodgers extension and while we happened to guess the structure correct in our Twitter musings lets give full credit here to Aaron Wilson of Scout.com who confirmed the guess with his breakdown of the contract. There is really no need for me to rehash the contract details as you can simply click to read those, but what I wanted to touch on was the impact of this contract. When the story came out that Rodgers received a $110 million dollar extension my first thought was that it was a win for … Read the rest

Apr 24

Kam Chancellor and the Safety Market

Now that the contract parameters are in for Safety Kam Chancellor lets look to see how he stacks up with some other players. For this article I’ll be using stats from Pro Football Focus, though most will be raw data that I am using to grade a player under my own metrics.

Pass Coverage

The first category I want to look at is pass coverage. Now admittedly this is difficult to grade because Safeties are often in help and both good and bad numbers may not really show up in the PFF stat database but here is how Chancellor … Read the rest

Apr 22

The Risks and Real Value of the Revis Contract

The Darrelle Revis contract that contains no guaranteed money is one of the most surprising turn of events I can ever recall. I understand his desire to be the highest paid player on defense but to give up guaranteed salary is quite the surprise for a number of reasons and I wanted to address some of the topics I have been reading on Twitter.

First of all I don’t consider the fact that the no guarantees was simply a form of injury protection for the Buccaneers. You can guarantee contracts for skill and salary cap terminations which would still allow … Read the rest

Apr 21

Looking at a Potential Darrelle Revis Extension

I just wanted to post some opinions on what I think would be a contract that might make Darrelle Revis happy in terms of compensation. With the years of working on understanding the Jets salary cap Revis has been a hot topic of debate so he has been a player that I have really tried to get a better understanding of from a financial standpoint. Tampa has a very specific way of doing business so let’s see if we can get the two sides to meet.

Revis’ biggest desire in recent times has been to be the highest paid defensive … Read the rest

Apr 17

Valuation Metrics for the Clay Matthews Extension

After weeks of rumored contract negotiations between the Green Bay Packers and LB Clay Matthews, the two sides made it official that Matthews would not become the highest paid outside linebacker in the NFL, surpassing the $13 million per year that the Cowboys DeMarcus Ware received in his 2009 contract extension. While no numbers are in as I am writing this (who knows by the time I’m finished) I wanted to look at the two real benchmark deals ahead of time so that we can get a better idea of just how strong the contract really is. The two deals … Read the rest

Apr 11

Anthony Davis’ Contract and its Meaning for Andre Smith

RT Anthony Davis signed a 5 year extension with the San Francisco 49’ers worth about $33 million in new money. Matt Maiocco put the contract numbers out today which allowed us at OTC to come up with an estimate on the structure of the contract. While not perfect in terms of cap I am pretty confident in the cash flows of the contract. With Davis agreeing to the extension I think we now have a comparable player for Andre Smith, one of the few remaining “name” players on the free agent market.

Smith is a former top draft pick, … Read the rest

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