Category Archive: Player Valuations

Jul 18

Projecting a Contract for JJ Watt

The other day there was some discussion on Twitter about Texans’ Defensive End JJ Watt receiving a contract extension worth in the ballpark of $23 million a season. That number seems crazy, so I figured I may as well jump in and take a look at Watt and where he might stand in the market and the type of contract I think he could receive.

The Player

Watt is a unique talent in part because of the position he plays on the field. In general most defenses that employ a 34 front do not have defensive ends that generate a … Read the rest

Jul 02

Looking at the Sando/ESPN QB Rankings from a Salary Perspective

Mike Sando did a terrific piece on ESPN Insider (subscription required) in which he polled a number of people in football to rank the starting Quarterbacks in the NFL. Sando grouped the quarterbacks into tiers based on the rankings and also provided their overall ranking in his article. I wanted to examine that list from a salary standpoint and see if the consensus opinions match the price tags associated with each player.

Because rookie contracts are pre-determined I only wanted to look at veteran players (that means no Luck, Bradford, Newton, etc…) who I felt would start (that also eliminates … Read the rest

Jul 01

Everything You Need To Know Regarding The Potential Effects Of The Jimmy Graham Decision


Any minute now, arbitrator Stephen Burbank will hand down his decision re: Graham v. New Orleans–the highly publicized franchise tag grievance filed by Jimmy Graham and his agents. Burbank’s ruling will have a vast impact on a variety of parties, so here’s an in-depth look at the entire situation and the carryover effect that the decision could create.


The Facts:

  • The Saints placed the $7.053 million non-exclusive tight end franchise tag on Graham back on February 28th.
  • On May 8th, Graham, who lined up out wide or in the slot for 67% of his
  • Read the rest

Jun 04

Looking At a Possible Contract for Cowboys WR Dez Bryant


I wanted to take a look today at Dez Bryant of the Dallas Cowboys, who is entering the final year of his contract and more or less proclaimed that he is a top five receiver in the NFL. I find Bryant a pretty intriguing contract negotiation since there are arguments that could be made on both sides for his salary and there are many potential risks and rewards associated with an early extension for Bryant.

The Salary Landscape

Here is the list of current top of the market players whose contracts were signed under the age of 30 (Bryant is … Read the rest

May 28

Is Alex Smith Worth $18 Million a Season?

Earlier today there was some discussion about Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs negotiations being pretty much at a standstill due to Smith believing he should be paid upwards of $18 million a season. This figure should come as no surprise to those who listen to the podcast or follow my Twitter feed as I’ve mentioned that number many times in the past. Smith was basically considered a bust for the first six or seven years or his career and little more than a game manager at his best, but the marketplace puts a premium on QB play and … Read the rest

Feb 09

Looking at Free Agent Running Backs

Today we will take a peek at the free agent running backs in the NFL. I usually try to look at players using two criteria- player generated yards and added yards per target. Player generated yards are determined by calculating how much of a players yards should come from his offensive line (yards before contract) and subtracting that figure from his yards on the season. Yards per target is based on the average yards gained on a pass attempt at the position and comparing it to the players performance.

The number one overall player last year was LeSean McCoy of … Read the rest

Feb 05

Breaking Down the 2014 WR Free Agent Market

On Monday Jason posted a list of the updated available salary cap space for all 32 teams. Though these numbers are not set in stone, they certainly provide a great benchmark as the offseason is now officially underway.

I wanted to take an early look at the WR free agent class for 2014. Just like any other position, it’s rare that the league’s most talented guys will be on this list. The logic behind this is simple—when a team has a Calvin Johnson or a Larry Fitzgerald, they make sure to lock him up before somebody else can. You … Read the rest

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