Identifying Value in the NFL Running Back

Last week we looked at wide receivers and some various ways to look at pricing and value. This week I wanted to look at running backs but from an overall standpoint. Rather than just veterans we’ll also consider rookies here as we again look to answer whether or not it’s worth signing or using a high draft pick a running back.

The Metrics

I wanted to break down the group into two primary categories. One is very simple- absolute production which is simply yards gained on the ground plus yards gained through the air (yards from scrimmage).

The second category … Read the rest

Examining the Upcoming Free Agency of DeMarco Murray

The Dallas Cowboys will have an interesting contractual decision on their hands with running back DeMarco Murray. Murray is on pace for a 2,000 yard season, a feat just 6 players have accomplished since 1980. He has become the focal point of a Cowboys offense that has become a throwback to the decade where teams featured one running back and the offense flowed through that player. Set to be a free agent the question is how should the Cowboys approach the contract.

The Running Back Market

There is really only one massive contract for running backs, the contract for … Read the rest

A Close Look at the Tyron Smith Contract Extension

Since we now have the basic details of the Cowboys extension with left tackle Tyron Smith, I thought it would be worth looking at why calling him the highest paid player at the position is not exactly accurate.

Though Smith carries the highest annual value of any tackle, $12.2 million versus $11.5 million for Joe Thomas, the cash flows will tell a slightly different story. Here are the running cash flows of the two contracts:

 

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SeasonThomasSmith
Year 1$20,700,000$20,000,000
Year 2$30,900,000$30,000,000
Year 3$42,000,000$40,000,000
Year 4$51,000,000$50,000,000
Year 5$60,500,000

Looking at Jamaal Charles’ Contract and Chiefs Salary Cap

According to KCTV5, Chiefs star running back Jamaal Charles is going to hold out of training camp in the hopes of earning a new contract with the Chiefs.

Charles’ situation is not all that different than the contract situation of Andre Johnson that I have alluded to in the past concerning the disgruntled wide receiver playing for years on an under market contract. Charles was one of the last signings under the old CBA, agreeing to a five year extension worth $27 million in December of 2010. Rather than fighting the uncertainty of the labor situation, Charles agreed to the … Read the rest

Projecting a Contract for JJ Watt

The other day there was some discussion on Twitter about Texans’ Defensive End JJ Watt receiving a contract extension worth in the ballpark of $23 million a season. That number seems crazy, so I figured I may as well jump in and take a look at Watt and where he might stand in the market and the type of contract I think he could receive.

The Player

Watt is a unique talent in part because of the position he plays on the field. In general most defenses that employ a 34 front do not have defensive ends that generate a … Read the rest

Looking at the Sando/ESPN QB Rankings from a Salary Perspective

Mike Sando did a terrific piece on ESPN Insider (subscription required) in which he polled a number of people in football to rank the starting Quarterbacks in the NFL. Sando grouped the quarterbacks into tiers based on the rankings and also provided their overall ranking in his article. I wanted to examine that list from a salary standpoint and see if the consensus opinions match the price tags associated with each player.

Because rookie contracts are pre-determined I only wanted to look at veteran players (that means no Luck, Bradford, Newton, etc…) who I felt would start (that also eliminates … Read the rest

Everything You Need To Know Regarding The Potential Effects Of The Jimmy Graham Decision

Any minute now, arbitrator Stephen Burbank will hand down his decision re: Graham v. New Orleans–the highly publicized franchise tag grievance filed by Jimmy Graham and his agents. Burbank’s ruling will have a vast impact on a variety of parties, so here’s an in-depth look at the entire situation and the carryover effect that the decision could create.

 

The Facts:

  • The Saints placed the $7.053 million non-exclusive tight end franchise tag on Graham back on February 28th.
  • On May 8th, Graham, who lined up out wide or in the slot for 67% of his
  • Read the rest