2016 NFL Free Agency: Cornerbacks Overview

In this weeks free agency feature we will take a look at the cornerbacks who may be available in 2016. As usual there will be no shortage of talent, though only one player looks to be a surefire bet to hit a monster contract in free agency…

Josh Norman, Panthers

Norman will likely win the award for best timing for free agency. He is combining the great season on an undefeated team giving him the kind of press and hype that will always maximize value. Norman currently leads the upcoming group of free agents in passes defensed and is second in interceptions. He doesn’t give up much in the way of completions and is generally regarded as the best corner in the NFL in 2015. All of this obviously adds up to massive money for cornerbacks, a position in ultra high demand last offseason. For Norman this year has basically doubled his value, similar to Byron Maxwell the year before.

Continue reading 2016 NFL Free Agency: Cornerbacks Overview »

2015 NFL Player Values: Quarterback

Since every team is at least a quarter of the way through the season I wanted to begin looking at each position week by week to see how their on the field performance translates into salary at the position. The valuations are based on a few categories of statistics, player usage, efficiency and participation which is compared with historical data and current market values to come up with a salary estimate for each position. Values are based on a player keeping his current per game numbers over a full 16 game season. Today we will look at the quarterback position and see where each player ranks. Continue reading 2015 NFL Player Values: Quarterback »

The Top 10 Marginal Value NFL Players

The other day I looked at the amount of value that teams believe they have at the top of their roster based on the size of the player contract. You can read it in full if you would like, but the gist of it is that we can define marginal value/cost as the price a team plays above average for a player at the position. That added price indicates the benefit that a team expects to receive from that player to justify the large investment. So in Part II we rank the players with the most perceived value in the NFL.

Continue reading The Top 10 Marginal Value NFL Players »

@ZackMooreNFL Projects Dez Bryant’s Contract

If you enjoy the analysis in this article, please e-mail Caponomics @ gmail.com to join the e-mail list.

As of right now, Dez Bryant will be playing for the Cowboys on the $12.823 million franchise tag and would lose about $754,000 for each game he misses were he to hold out. After speaking with the great @Jason_OTC, the Wizard of OTC, he stated that it sounds like Bryant is looking for a deal worth $16 million per season and that his guess is that Bryant is looking for a deal worth $16 million per year, plus $50 million in guarantees, but he’s not sure on the length of the contract.

Continue reading @ZackMooreNFL Projects Dez Bryant’s Contract »

Opinion on Ryan Tannehill’s New Contract

So, here’s how it works out when you break it down by the years:

Figure 1: Ryan Tannehill’s Contract and Projected Cap Figures

(Remember: Click on the figures to open them up and enlarge them.)

Ryan Tannehill Contract Figures

So on Tuesday, when I saw this contract, I was the guy I HATE, the Stephen A. Smith type, provocative assclown who thinks they know everything. I tweeted out, “Tannehill could be a terrific QB, I believe in him, but Tannenbaum just paid him like he’s already arrived.” To be honest, I kind of took my pent up annoyance with Ndamukong Suh’s current contract and let that spill over into this situation. Don’t get me wrong, I still think Tannenbaum doesn’t understand the percentage of the salary cap analysis of the cap and that Suh’s Contract Cripples Dolphins (don’t you just hate when people do bad things to dolphins?), but this Tannehill contract is very good. Continue reading Opinion on Ryan Tannehill’s New Contract »

@ZackMooreNFL on Cameron Heyward via USA Today’s new Steelers Site!

@NealCoolong, formerly of Behind the Steel Curtain, now runs a Steelers website under the USA Today banner named SteelersWire.USAToday.com, which is now the #1 spot for Steelers information on the Internet. He recently contacted me about answering some cap related questions about the Steelers for a piece. It’s a very interesting move by USA Today to have a site like this for each team and I think it’s a great idea for them to help build a credible voice in each marketplace, so I hope they continue to expand on this. Continue reading @ZackMooreNFL on Cameron Heyward via USA Today’s new Steelers Site! »

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC North

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  AFC North

NFC East   |   AFC East

NFC West   |   AFC West

NFC South   |   AFC South

NFC North

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Baltimore Ravens:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Eugene Monroe98.4%NO
Terrell Suggs98.2%NO
Joe Flacco98.1%NO
Dennis Pitta97.8%NO
Jeremy Zuttah95.1%NO
Elvis Dumervil76.1%NO
Lardarius Webb72.5%NO
Jacoby Jones71.9%NO
Daryl Smith56.2%NO
Marshal Yanda37.1%YES
Haloti Ngata36.3%YES
Steve Smith24.8%YES
Chris Canty22.1%YES
Sam Koch17.9%YES

Pittsburgh Steelers:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Ryan Shazier99.9%NO
Jarvis Jones98.3%NO
Maurkice Pouncey98.2%NO
Marcus Gilbert95.6%NO
Cortez Allen95.2%NO
Antonio Brown88.5%NO
Mike Mitchell87.8%NO
Shaun Suisham71.4%NO
David DeCastro71.2%NO
Lawrence Timmons61.9%NO
Heath Miller61.2%NO
Troy Polamalu46.6%YES
Cam Thomas44.2%YES
Steve McLendon39.5%YES
Ramon Foster36.9%YES
Ben Roethlisberger22.8%YES

Cincinnati Bengals:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Tyler Eifert97.4%NO
Andy Dalton97.0%NO
Carlos Dunlap95.2%NO
Vontaze Burfict94.9%NO
Geno Atkins93.8%NO
Dre Kirkpatrick81.0%NO
Domata Peko74.0%NO
Kevin Zeitler71.0%NO
Kevin Huber55.1%NO
Andre Smith46.0%YES
Leon Hall36.2%YES
Vincent Rey35.9%YES
Wallace Gillberry33.1%YES
Reggie Nelson27.4%YES
Adam Jones20.8%YES
Robert Geathers19.7%YES
Andrew Whitworth19.7%YES

Cleveland Browns:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Justin Gilbert99.9%NO
Joe Haden99.4%NO
Alex Mack95.6%NO
Barkevious Mingo93.8%NO
Donte Whitner83.0%NO
Karlos Dansby79.7%NO
Joe Thomas71.4%NO
Andrew Hawkins67.0%NO
Paul Kruger64.4%NO
Desmond Bryant63.8%NO

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.