The valuations for week 10 are now updated for each player who played this week. This week’s values are available for free on the valuations page and the full season numbers as well as results from week 1 through 9 are available for premium subscribers. This week I thought we would look at how the valuation compares with the team’s record through the first 10 weeks.
Overall I was pretty happy with the results here as the results we have have done a pretty decent job of identifying the good and bad football teams. The valuations are based primarily on three inputs- playing time assigned by the team, certain statistical metrics, as well as PFF grades, so its good to see there is some correlation here with winning.
The biggest teams that would look to be more off on the “outperform” side would be the Dolphins, Raiders, Ravens, and Browns. In Miami’s case I think this is due to the low values given to the quarterback play there. I would need to look closer at the numbers but in part it has to do with using two quarterbacks and Tua’s three games not being able to boost his value enough, so a bit more of a quirk with the way we prorate the games to a season.
The Browns have won despite poor QB play. Mayfield is valued about as low as you can get for a healthy QB1 and they have been able to win in spite of that. The Raiders have had solid QB play (Carr ranks 14th) despite the fact that the teams receivers have done little. Wide receivers are among the highest valued players in the NFL and you would assume they would rank at least average with decent QB play but they are way under. Pass rushers are also expensive and the Raiders have done well without those positions performing.
The Ravens are intriguing. They have no top players beside Jackson (16th rated QB), but are the only team with three cornerbacks ranked in the top 20 at the position. Ive always been of the belief that overall good play in the secondary is more valuable than one great talent and some bodies and maybe this is some evidence of that. The other teams with strong corner rankings are the Rams, Chiefs, Colts, and Saints.
The underperformers are the Broncos, Falcons, and Chargers. Two of the three are easier to explain. The poor coaching jobs in Atlanta and LA have cost those teams multiple wins and both should be much closer to that 500 line and in the playoff hunt. Instead they are at the bottom of the NFL.
The Broncos are a little different. In large part some of their player values I think have been fueled by some end of game heroics that have inflated the values of a few players. They also have had terrible QB play which is far more important to winning and losing than good performances from a left tackle, edge rusher, corner, and linebacker. I tend to think their overall values will fall in line by seasons end but we will have to wait and see.
Add OTC to Your Google News Feed to stay up to date with our update
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.