The Jets continued their all in approach for 2024 adding Eagles Pro Bowl EDGE Haason Reddick to their roster via trade. Per ESPN’s Rich Cimini the cost will be a 2026 3rd round draft pick that could jump to a 2nd round pick if Reddick has 67.5% playtime and 10 sacks, numbers that Reddick has hit in each of the last four seasons.

Reddick is in the final year of a three year contract that he signed with the Eagles as a free agent in 2022. It was thought that he was unhappy with his contract and was looking for an extension. The Eagles had given him permission to seek a trade and modified his contract to hold off on paying a $1 million a roster bonus until April 1, but there was limited interest during the early stages of free agency. The Eagles signed Bryce Huff, formerly of the Jets, in free agency as a replacement for Reddick.

According to multiple outlets the Eagles will pay Reddick’s roster bonus prior to officially executing the trade with the Jets. That will leave the Eagles with $21.515 million in dead money from Reddick’s contract, which is essentially the same cost on the salary cap as if he were still on the team. They do, however, save themselves $14.5 million in salary for the year.

The Jets will take on a $15 million salary cap charge for Reddick, but my assumption would be that the team would immediately restructure the contract by adding void years and paying the majority of the contract as a bonus. That would reduce his cap hit to about $4 million for the season and defer the rest to 2025. The Jets could also extend Reddick but at the moment most of the Jets focus has been all on 2024.

The Jets this year have added about $72.4M in new player contract salary for 2024 spread out across 13 players. Only four of those players are also on the roster in 2025 and they account for just $18.7 million in salary with only $3.5 million of the salary being guaranteed. For the most part the Jets have seemingly been focused on avoiding any long term commitments this year though I guess that could change with Reddick.

Reddick should be a significant upgrade for the defense as a whole. While older than Huff, Reddick is a much more complete player and makes more sense to the Jets at this number than Huff did. The Jets coaching staff did not see Huff’s role expanding beyond being a 40% playtime player. Reddick will likely remain on the field for 75% of the teams defensive plays unless they fall out of contention and try to keep the draft pick from jumping higher.

For Philadelphia this is a pretty brilliant trade. They had already made the decision to move on to the 26 year old player in Huff and were able to really get a good haul in a trade. One of the big inefficiencies in the trade markets are that team’s often devalue future picks and here the Eagles could be gaining a 2nd round pick in 2026 which is basically gold in todays NFL. Reddick at this point was just going to be a distraction for the team and to get this kind of return is really strong. It is one of the big advantages the few teams in the NFL who have a long term vision have over the others in the NFL.

Now that the fifth day of the new league year has passed, when many contract triggers have been decided, this is a good time to take a look at what veteran contracts were terminated in preparation for and during the beginning of free agency–and see what trends can be identified.

The list

Here are all the players cut that resulted in salary due in 2024 that was shed by their former teams:

The number on the left column is the rank that player had on OTC’s 2024 top 100 possible cut candidates. Overall, that experiment went well: of the 50 players cut where they were due at least $4 million in salary for 2024 (the lower bound on the list), 38 of them were on the top 100 list, making up 76% of those cuts. In addition, six other players (Joey Bosa, Tim Patrick, John Cominsky, Donte Jackson, Tyler Lockett, and Shaq Thompson) also suffered negative contract fate by taking pay cuts in order to stay on their teams. That means the list identified 44 players that teams deemed were slated to be paid more in 2024 than they were willing to pay. With a few more tweaks, I hope to work further on exploring contract fate more, and attempting to increase the number of players that are accurate identified as possible cut candidates.

2024 Cash Saved By Team and Position

On March 8, the 2024 compensatory draft picks were released, with a correction released on March 11 that will be described in detail below. As always, upon seeing the official release it’s proper to judge how my projection did against it.

It was reported earlier this week that the salary cap starved Bills had restructured Josh Allen’s contract for salary cap relief but per a league source, the restructure went a bit further than originally reported and may set the stage for Allen bringing his contract a little more in line with the market as salaries continue to explode across the league.

Prior to the restructure Josh Allen was going to count for $47,056,281 against the salary cap in 2024 and $56,556,281 in 2025. Allen’s salary in 2024 was $30 million which was middle of the league for veteran quarterbacks. The restructured contract saw Allen receive a raise for 2024 by borrowing salary from 2025 and 2028 and in the process knocked down the salary cap numbers for both 2024 and 2025.

Allen’s 2024 compensation rose to $60 million which would have been second in the NFL prior to free agency (it is now third following Kirk Cousins mega contract with the Falcons). This is about $5 million more than Patrick Mahomes earned last season when the Chiefs moved money around in his contract.

The restructure knocked Allen’s 2024 cap number down to $30,356,281 and his 2025 salary cap number down to $43,231,281. That represents savings of $16.7 million in 2024 cap room and $13.325 million in 2025 cap space. His 2026 and 2027 cap numbers increased by $11.675 million in each year.

The thing to look at going forward is if the Bills have put themselves in a position to have to continuously move salary around to make sure that their star QB, who is on a contract that has been lapped by the market, remains happy until it comes time to extend him. This restructure was not as extensive as the Chiefs one with Mahomes. In Mahomes restructure he received an increase in salary of $43.3 million from 2023 to 2026 with a drop in salary of $43.3 million in the 2027 through 2031 years. While Allen’s salary increased this year by $30 million the increase over the next two years is only $5 million since $25 million was borrowed from 2025 rather than later in the contract.

Allen’s 2026 contract year is structured very similar to his original 2025 contract year. The team could move his $15 million roster bonus into 2025 next year to bring Allen’s cash salary up from $14.5 million to $29.5 million and maybe borrow a few more dollars from the future to increase it a bit more.  By using bonus mechanisms to prorate the money it would not have a negative short term on the Bills salary cap.

The Bills have generally been willing, for better or worse, to do extensions for their veteran players when they have two years remaining on their contract. For Allen that would be 2027. The goal should probably be to move as much money out of 2027 and 2028 and into 2025 and 2026 over the next two years. If Allen’s agents are able to get the Bills to do similar moves year by year it is conceivable that Allen could go from his original contract which would pay him $108 million from 2024 to 2026 to $148 million over the same time period.

While that lowers his 2027 and 2028 salaries considerably and odds are those low salaries would need to be honored at some point in an extension, the way that contract are structured his cash salary would explode in the 2027 year if extended and more than cover what was borrowed.

If Mahomes and Allen are able to pull this off it could change some of the quarterback dynamics when it comes to contracts in the future. A generation ago teams often were rewarded when they extended QB’s early to get ahead of the market as the quarterbacks usually played those contracts out and by the end the players were tremendously undervalued. This could give teams less incentive to rush into extensions where they think they are beating the market or to do some of these longer term deals where they continuously guarantee future salary in return for low annual values. So I think this is important to watch for how the market plays out as the other 30 teams are watching the way things unfold in Kansas City and Buffalo.

The football world was shocked today when future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald decided to retire from the NFL after 10 seasons. His legendary career featured 8 All Pro nods and 10 selections to the Pro Bowl. Donald also set multiple contract standards for the interior defensive line, becoming the first defensive tackle in NFL history to earn over $20 million a year in 2018 and then the first defensive player to get over $30 million a year in 2022. Now that he is leaving the Rams it does leave some questions as to how his contract will play out for the team.

Prior to the news of his retirement, I had mentioned that Donald recently had his contract restructured to free up around $9.2 million in cap room for the team. Per a source with knowledge of the contract this was not a typical restructure where salary was just converted to a signing bonus. In this case the Rams converted his $5 million roster bonus, which was already guaranteed, to a signing bonus. They took $8.79 million of his salary, which was going to become guaranteed in a few days, and added it to his $20 million option bonus.  The option for Donald was originally due by mid June, I would guess, but do not know for certain, that date remains.

The restructured contract, in light of Donald’s retirement, reads a bit more like salary cap maneuvering by the Rams to keep the door open to Donald possibly coming back to the team. If both sides were 100% on the retirement they would have simply bought his salary this year down to $1.21 million and taken out the option and roster bonuses, unless the Rams were just totally blindsided with the retirement announcement and had no idea this was coming. So my guess is they want to leave the door wide open for him to come back.

The $5 million bonus may or may not be his to keep. Under the terms of his prior contract the Rams apparently did not have the right to go after his roster bonus if Donald breached his contract, such as by retiring.  The signing bonus language could be different giving the Rams the ability to simply recover anything had any money exchanged hand. Or it could be a nice parting gift for all his years of service. The option bonus is a clear deferral of salary.

By doing the restructure, the Rams brought Donald’s salary cap number down to $24.97 million. Placing Donald on the retirement list would have caused the Rams to take on a $28.5 million cap charge at a minimum so this gives the Rams a little more room to work with. By deferring his salary into the option it also gives the Rams a chance to keep Donald on the roster through June, if they want, and place him on the retired list at that point. It also gives Donald months to consider if he wants to return since the contract is simply waiting for him if he returns to the NFL this year or any year in the future.

If the team waits until June they should be able to split the salary cap charges across two years, though the cap charges are contingent on the way his signing bonus works. If the signing bonus is a legit bonus then the money should count towards dead money in 2024 and 2025. If it is earned but no money ever changes hands prior to the retirement the NFL will likely just disregard the bonus. If there is money paid and the team is later paid back the Rams will take a charge in 2024 with an offsetting credit coming in 2025.

The accounting of the option is also a bit tricky. In my experience the NFL will typically include the option prorations as dead money in the year the player is released even if the option is not exercised. The team then receives a credit the following year.

Here is how I believe the cap charges would play out in a June 1 retirement scenario (credit is the adjustment the Rams would receive for cap charges in 2024 not actually earned so it reduces the impact of the dead money in 2025).

I would expect the Rams to carry Donald on the roster through whatever the option date may be and then place him on the retired list. It should be easier for them from a salary cap perspective than just putting him on the list right now.

The Rams and Donald could also restructure his contract one final time to remove some of the charges that I am mentioning here. If the retirement is firm it would make sense for the Rams to simply remove the option from the contract in which case you do not get into these issues with treatment of option prorations in 2024. That would reduce the 2024 charges to $14.166M with 2025 looking similar to the chart above.

Ultimately I would not be surprised if the Rams are not done tinkering with the contract, either as a way to entice him to play again in 2024 or to make things a little simpler with the salary cap. I would be surprised if they do immediately place him on the reserve list and absorb all of the cap charges this season.

The Lions and Buccaneers have agreed to a trade for cornerback Carlton Davis according to Tom Pelissero of NFL Network.

Trade! The #Lions are acquiring CB Carlton Davis from the #Bucs, per source.

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) March 11, 2024

Davis was entering the final year of his contract with the Buccaneers and going to count for $20.37 million on their salary cap. Trading Davis will leave Tampa Bay with $14 million in dead money and open up $6.3 million in cap room. Davis had signed a three year contract worth $44.5 million per year with the Bucs back in 2022.

The Lions will take on Davis’ remaining salary which is broken down as $14 million in base salary and up tp $500,000 in per game bonuses. The cap charge for Detroit will be $14.35 million and that number can increase to $14.5 million if Davis plays all 17 games. Davis has missed 7 games in the last two years. The Lions went into the offseason with a surplus of cap room which makes a trade like this one reasonable since there is no future money involved.

Chris Jones finalized a deal today with the Chiefs that will make him the highest paid defensive tackle in the NFL at $158.75 million over five seasons according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. The contract has massive guarantees with $60 million fully guaranteed at signing and $95 million virtually guaranteed to be earned. Here is a look at how the contract matches up with Aaron Donald’s contract and some other thoughts on the contract.

Last year when Jones held out in training camp and the early part of the regular season all eyes were on the Donald contract which seemed to be a non-starter last season. Donald had leveraged the Rams into ripping up his contract via the threat of retirement and replacing it with a contract that had zero to do with the defensive tackle market and everything to do with the edge rusher market. A year later the Donald contract clearly became the template to follow. Here are how the two contracts compare in cash flows

Donald earns $150,000 more in the first year of his contract while Jones jumps Donald by $200,000 in year two before getting all of $300,000 over him in year three. While the salaries are certainly big and the annual value of the contract huge, these numbers are in no way reflective of the way Edge players are paid at the top which probably is one of the reasons why the Chiefs felt willing to do this contract since there was a framework to follow. Here is how the cash stacks up with some of the Edge rushers.

This is an easier way for the Chiefs to work within their budget to get to $95 million over three years since they don’t have to hit a near $50 million payment in year one of the contract and being at $70 million through year two. This is a steady state of payments relative to the others.

The guarantee on the contract, however, blows away the Donald contract and does compare with the Edge market especially if you look at new guarantees.

On a new money basis this contract is second to only Nick Bosa in injury protection and is fourth in full guarantees. In no way does it resemble the Donald contract which provided some minor protection for the Rams by not carrying a third year guarantee.

History will look at this contract as a big deal but not the biggest. When adjusted for salary cap inflation the annual value of this contract will rank 7^th in the NFL among interior defenders.

This was one area where you could see some departure on the Donald contract. Donald set a market when he signed his contract two years ago. This contract was simply pegged to a contract that was two years old. That just adds some perspective as to how this ranks all time.

From a salary cap perspective the Chiefs will be tied to Jones for the first three years of the contract. They went all in with the cap structure on this which was a major departure from the way the team handled his 2020 contract that he signed as a franchise player. That contract had a low up front payment and a high salary cap charge in the first year. The team essentially opted into two franchise tags at signing and gave themselves an option to trade in year 2 or cut in year 3 since they held off his vesting guarantees until year 3.

Here there is no option like that. Jones will carry a $7.35 million contract in 2024, due to a Chiefs high  $30 million signing bonus, and then that number jumps to $34.85 million in 2025 and $41.1 million in 2026. The cost to move on in 2025 would be $52.75 million in cap charges if cut and $24 million if traded. In 2026 the numbers will be $53 million to cut and $18 million to trade. The reason the number is so high in 2026 is because he will earn a 2026 guarantee in 2025. The primary out is year 4 where there are no guarantees that kick in during a prior league year. If they can avoid restructuring the contract for cap relief next season it would be $12 million to move on in 2027.  

This is a really aggressive move by the Chiefs who typically are a little more calculated. They are certainly banking on Jones holding strong the next three years. Donald has held up from age 30 to 32, missing only 6 games in that span and while his sack numbers are down he is still very disruptive. Other top players have tailed off at this age. Sapp was not the same player from 31 onward nor was Suh. Seymour was solid but not great and out of the NFL by 34. Watt’s body started to break down at 30. Fletcher Cox’ post 30 years were never top of the position good.

The decision to do this contract seems based strongly on going for a “three-peat” and not wanting the cloud hanging over them of “what if” if they were to lose while he is on another team. If they were willing to do this contract it probably should have been done last season. At that point at least you have the guarantees out of the contract by the time that Jones would be 32 rather than 33 and my guess would be it would be structured a bit more evenly with the salary cap.

There was nothing for Jones to prove last season. Regardless of how great he was it really had no bearing on the future. Jones will be what he will be. The team should not have had to see the 2023 season to decide that Jones will be great in 2024, 2025, and 2026. You should either be willing to make the commitment or not make the commitment. This just feels as if they wasted a year since they wound up in the same place with him on the contract he wanted all along.

The next question will be if this does or does not impact the defensive tackle market. Donald has always been painted as an outlier. Jones never was though he has a really unique career where he got better in his 2^nd contract while most players fade or stay the same. Still once you get two players at a number it is harder to make the outlier argument. That can make the market work to where you are pegging your offers down off of Jones rather than up off of Quinnen Williams and Justin Madubuike. Pegging off of Jones can make the market jump up quicker than the incremental growth we see in the other players.

Kansas City will need to make some moves this week to get their salary cap in order. Likely they will restructure part of Mahomes’ contract and then see what market develops for Sneed. Right now the Chiefs have the third highest payroll in the NFL so moving on from Sneed and maybe making another cut or two would be expected to bring the numbers down more into a level the Chiefs are comfortable with. If they do remain top 10 in spending it is probably a sign that they will have less invested in 2025 to help balance out the numbers from this year.