@ZackMooreNFL on Russell Wilson’s Contract

Man, no matter what deal the Seahawks gave Russell Wilson there would have been detractors, huh? Some people saying that Wilson is now the most overpaid player in sports, others saying that he didn’t get a record or market setting deal, so there’s something wrong with that for the fourth year pro with two Super Bowl appearances in his career.

I’m here to hopefully dispel all of that and just talk about the contract itself, through my analysis of it. If you want to see what I predicted back in early June, here’s the link, it could actually give you a solid base to get you thinking of how both sides may have been approaching the deal as some of what I discussed ended up in this contract. Continue reading @ZackMooreNFL on Russell Wilson’s Contract »

Cap Number Allocations for Hypothetical Contracts

When amateur capologists write articles proposing contract structures for extension candidates or free agents, they typically use some sort of methodology for determining primary deal points such as total contract value, average annual value, guaranteed money, and three-year cash flow. However, I have noticed, both when engaging in this exercise myself and when reading the work of others, that there does not seem to be an existing methodology for determining how the cap numbers of a hypothetical contract should be allocated once the primary deal points for the hypothetical contract have been determined. As a result, I took a look at a number of active contracts to see how cap numbers have actually been allocated.
Continue reading Cap Number Allocations for Hypothetical Contracts »

Commitment Index Update (Training Camp Edition)

Now that all of the draft picks have signed and a number of players have agreed to noteworthy extensions, I thought this would be a good time to provide an update as to where each team currently stands with respect to Commitment Index. I will provide the final Commitment Index update for 2015 after final rosters are set, and then at the conclusion of the season I will provide the initial Commitment Index for 2016.

Continue reading Commitment Index Update (Training Camp Edition) »

The impact of GM job security on decision-making in the cap carryover era

The job description of an NFL general manager lends itself to contradiction. On one hand, a GM is responsible for keeping both the present and future of the franchise in mind when making decisions. But GM’s know that if they aren’t successful today then they won’t be around for the future.

This past offseason, six teams—the Eagles, Falcons, Bears, Redskins, Dolphins and Jets—either hired a new GM or rearranged front office roles to effectively put a new GM in place. And this wasn’t an anomaly. Of the 30 GM’s who don’t double as team owners (the Jones’ in Dallas and Mike Brown in Cincinnati), only seven have held their position prior to 2010.

There’s no Expected Contract Value—a tool that places a numerical value on a players future job security based on the analysis of past data—for general managers. Still, it’s safe to say decision makers know when their seat is getting warm, and this can lead to a conflict of interests. Continue reading The impact of GM job security on decision-making in the cap carryover era »

Introducing The Concept of Texture

Although I’ve learned plenty about the salary cap and NFL contracts in general over the years, there are several times where I still have difficulty understanding how these rules shape the rosters. How many big contracts can a team hold in a given year? Can your favorite team afford to re-sign that player you really like? Can a team be a serious player for a high profile free agent, or do they have to focus on the draft and the bargain bin?

To help clarify some of these questions, I’ve decided to investigate what I’ll refer to as the texture of an NFL roster. I will classify contracts and cap figures into several tiers, look at how each team balanced the cap numbers of their players into those tiers from last year, and then evaluate what sort of requirements and limitations teams face in order to build a roster that’s not only compliant with the salary cap, but able to be competitive against the rest of the league. Continue reading Introducing The Concept of Texture »

2014 Team Texture Charts

In an introductory article, I explained the concept of texture to try to gain a better understanding on how an NFL roster is built. With this article, I will take a look at the texture of all 32 teams from 2014 so we can see some real life examples of what I have in mind. I have included what I found was an interesting takeaway from each team, but I encourage you to make your own observations to see what else we can learn.

When the final cuts to 53 come in for September, I’ll take a snapshot of the 2015 texture and observe the changes that took place between them. But if you want, you can take a look at the results from 2015’s free agency to take your own sneak peak at those changes. I’ve done just that for the Broncos in a separate article for Thin Air. Continue reading 2014 Team Texture Charts »

Introducing Embeddable Player Contracts

A request came in to me over Twitter to provide a way to embed player contracts.  Since this wasn’t a terribly difficult request, I decided to get it done this morning.  You will be able to find the HTML required to do it immediately underneath the contract table on any given player page.  You can see an example below with one of the NFL’s newest contracts.