Expected Contract Value Impact of Cap-Driven Restructures

Each offseason a number of players agree to simple restructures of their contracts designed to free up cap room for their respective teams in the present year. These cap-driven restructures involve converting base salary (or roster bonus) to signing bonus, with the converted amount then prorated over the remaining years on the contract (up to a maximum of five years). These restructures only involve changing the nature of contract payments, as opposed to the amount of those payments, and are therefore distinguished from pay cuts, raises or extensions. There is clearly no downside to the player agreeing to do this, as he immediately receives money scheduled for payment more than six months in the future (and which is often not guaranteed). But what may be overlooked is that these cap-driven restructures typically increase expected earnings in future seasons without in any way changing the payment terms in those future season.

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#ZMS8 Notes: Eagles 3 Quarterback Strategy

Last week, I released Episode #8 of The Zack Moore Show podcast and covered the Eagles 3 QB strategy after the trade for the #2 pick in the first round, which was actually something I’d brought up in my first draft of an Eagles chapter that I’m writing for Caponomics: Moneyball Thinking for the NFL. I see the Doug Pederson Era as an extension of the principles of the Andy Reid Era, which saw the Eagles make the NFC Championship five times in 14 seasons and average just better than 9-7 over the course of those seasons.

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Free Agency AfterMath: Running Backs

The chart below compares the Expected Contract Value with the stated contract value for each contract of $10 million or more signed during the 2016 offseason. Expected Contract Value 1.1 is applied at the time of signing. Expected Contract Value 1.1 takes into account the nature and timing of contract amounts, the resulting relationship between dead money and APY in each year of the contract, the length of the contract, and the position and age of the player. Expected Contract Value 1.1 is therefore a performance-neutral measurement of expected contract earnings. As a result, the primary way a player can exceed or fall short of his Expected Contract Value is to perform better or worse than the performance expectations implied by his contract.

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Free Agency AfterMath: Receivers

Defensive Backs | Front Seven | Offensive Lineman

The chart below compares the Expected Contract Value with the stated contract value for each contract of $10 million or more signed during the 2016 offseason. Expected Contract Value 1.1 is applied at the time of signing. Expected Contract Value 1.1 takes into account the nature and timing of contract amounts, the resulting relationship between dead money and APY in each year of the contract, the length of the contract, and the position and age of the player. Expected Contract Value 1.1 is therefore a performance-neutral measurement of expected contract earnings. As a result, the primary way a player can exceed or fall short of his Expected Contract Value is to perform better or worse than the performance expectations implied by his contract.

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Free Agency AfterMath: Offensive Lineman

Defensive Backs | Front Seven

The chart below compares the Expected Contract Value with the stated contract value for each contract of $10 million or more signed during the 2016 offseason. Expected Contract Value 1.1 is applied at the time of signing. Expected Contract Value 1.1 takes into account the nature and timing of contract amounts, the resulting relationship between dead money and APY in each year of the contract, the length of the contract, and the position and age of the player. Expected Contract Value 1.1 is therefore a performance-neutral measurement of expected contract earnings. As a result, the primary way a player can exceed or fall short of his Expected Contract Value is to perform better or worse than the performance expectations implied by his contract.

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