2016 Compensatory Draft Picks Update (5/12/2015)

The notable day of May 12 (the artist formerly known as June 1) is coming to a close, and among the notable aspects of this date is when Unrestricted Free Agents usually transition into Street Free Agents. This further means there will no longer be any more additions to the players eligible to qualify for the compensatory draft pick formula for 2016, since it focuses exclusively on UFAs. This will provide an opportunity to update where the 2016 comp picks stand at this moment.

UPDATE (7:30 PM ET): I learned soon after making this post that Corey Hilliard retired.  As such, I have removed him from the program’s consideration.  Although I can’t immediately think of a precedent for retired players, I find it hard to imagine that they would qualify.  Even if Hilliard did qualify, he would have been highly unlikely to earn the Lions a pick, as the list beyond the fold demonstrates.

Continue reading 2016 Compensatory Draft Picks Update (5/12/2015) »

Marginal Quarterback Yards in 2014

Taking a break from Deflategate, draft analysis, and all the other news of the moment to focus instead on QB play from last season and tie it in a bit with projected salaries since there are a number of QB’s whose contracts are coming due in the near future. What I want to do is break down the incremental or marginal contribution of a QB based on the difficulty of the throw (based on air yards) and see what players (or offenses if we believe strongly in the QB) may need to be tinkered with or revalued in the near future.  Continue reading Marginal Quarterback Yards in 2014 »

Eric Weddle and Antonio Brown are Reportedly Unhappy with their Contracts

Voluntary off-season workouts for teams started this week, and many notable players around the league have been absent. Two All-Pro players skipped workouts due to their current contract situations. San Diego Chargers safety, Eric Weddle, is entering the final year of his contract, and is eager to sign an extension. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown, believes he deserves a new contract that better reflects his value.

Eric Weddle said he feels highly disrespected by the Chargers. The veteran safety has played 99 percent of the defensive snaps the past four seasons, yet the Chargers have refused to discuss a new contract. After the 2011 lockout, Weddle resigned with the Chargers, agreeing to a 5-year, $40 million contract with $19 million fully guaranteed. The contract made Weddle the 2nd highest paid veteran safety, behind Troy Polamalu.

According to reports, Weddle is seeking an extension that compensates him in the range of the 3-4 highest paid safeties in the league. Excluding Eric Berry’s rookie contract, Weddle is currently the 5th highest paid safety in the NFL. It seems likely, that Weddle is pursuing an extension that pays him a higher average salary than Jairus Byrd at $8.75 million, but would settle for surpassing Dashon Goldson’s $8.25 million average.

Prior to signing his current contract, Weddle had yet to make a Pro Bowl. Since 2011, Weddle has made the Pro Bowl in three of the last four seasons, and has been the team’s most consistent defensive player. The Chargers, however, have been reluctant to discuss a new contract. Weddle will be 31 years old by next off-season, and the Chargers may decide to rebuild if they can’t convince Philip Rivers to remain with the team long-term. Weddle is scheduled to make $7.5 million this season, and it’s doubtful that he agrees to an extension with the Chargers anytime soon.

Antonio Brown on the other hand, has three years remaining on his contract. He is being paid just $6 million this season, and his $8.392 million average salary is 11th amongst wide receivers. After leading the league in receptions and receiving yards last season, it’s obvious that the Steelers are paying Brown at a bargain.

The Steelers are paying Brown an average salary of $7.65 million over the next three seasons. There is great risk for Brown to play out the rest of his contract since he is being severely undervalued, and there is no guaranteed salary remaining. All of his guaranteed salary was paid upfront, in the form of an $8.5 million signing bonus. Brown also isn’t eligible for free agency for another three seasons, and will be 30 years old as well.

When Brown signed his extension in the 2012 off-season, he had only recorded one 1000-yard season, and was the team’s second option at wide out behind Mike Wallace. He has posted career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns the past two seasons, and will only be 27 years old by the start of the season. It’s clear that Brown needs to capitalize on his recent production, and be compensated at a higher salary. The Steelers however, most likely will object to any contract demands, since he is entering the 3rd season of a 5-year extension. Despite having considerably more leverage, it will be interesting to see if the Steelers reward their star young player.

Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Safeties

Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs

Wide Receivers  |  Tight Ends

Offensive Lineman  |  Pass Rushers

Defensive Lineman  |  Linebackers

Cornerbacks

PlayerNominal ValueECV% ExpectedECV/Year
Devin McCourty$47,500,000$33,728,50071%$6,745,700
Da’Norris Searcy$23,750,000$16,644,87570%$4,161,219
Nate Allen$23,000,000$15,484,00067%$3,871,000
Marcus Gilchrist$22,000,000$13,947,50061%$3,486,875
Ron Parker$25,000,000$13,558,50054%$3,389,625
Rahim Moore$12,000,000$9,568,75080%$3,189,583
Antrel Rolle$11,250,000$6,744,20060%$2,248,067
Sergio Brown$7,000,000$4,793,50068%$1,597,833
Darian Stewart$4,250,000$3,182,00075%$1,591,000
Mike Adams$4,250,000$2,224,65052%$1,112,325
S Total:66.6%
Global Total (122 Free Agents):67.5%
Notable One-Year Contracts:
Louis Delmas:   $3,500,000 ($0 guaranteed)
Alan Ball:   $3,000,000 ($1,000,000 guaranteed)
 
PlayerFirst Likely Cut YearDead Money Remaining
Devin McCourty2018 (43%)*$6,000,000**
Da’Norris Searcy2018 (37%)$1,125,000
Nate Allen2017 (48%)$0
Marcus Gilchrist2018 (35%)$625,000
Ron Parker2018 (29%)$2,000,000
Rahim Moore
Antrel Rolle2016 (43%)$0
Sergio Brown2017 (36%)$0
Dairan Stewart2016 (47%)$750,000
Mike Adams2016 (12%)$0
 

*Refers to the likelihood that the player will remain under contract in the given season.  This column displays the first season where the likelihood falls below 50%.

**Refers to the amount of dead money that the team will incur upon releasing the player in the season identified in the second column.

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

Four Pro Bowl Wide Receivers Entering Final Year of Rookie Deal

This off-season, three Pro Bowl wide receivers’ rookie contracts expired. None of them however, made it to free agency. Dez Bryant and Demarius Thomas were franchised, and Randall Cobb resigned with the Green Bay Packers prior to free agency. Jeremy Maclin was the best wide receiver to hit the open market, and he signed a 5-year, $55 million contract with the Kansas City Chiefs. In addition to Bryant and Thomas, four more Pro Bowl wide receivers’ contracts will be expiring after this season. A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Alshon Jeffery, and T.Y. Hilton are entering the final year of their rookie contracts.

A.J. Green and Julio Jones are playing out the 5th year option picked up by their clubs last off-season. As former top ten draft picks, Green and Jones’ salaries in 2015 are equivalent to the 2014 transition tag at wide receiver, which is $10.176 million. Alshon Jeffery and T.Y. Hilton on the other hand, were 2nd and 3rd round draft picks in 2012, and are being paid much less this season. Jeffery is making just over $1 million, while Hilton is being paid $1.542 million.

It’s unlikely that Green, Jones, Jeffery, or Hilton hit the open market in free agency next year. They are all Pro Bowl wide receivers, and will each be 27 years old or younger by March 2016. Their teams however, may not be inclined to extend them right now. They control their rights for the next three seasons, as the Collective Bargaining Agreement allows teams to franchise tag a player a maximum three consecutive seasons. Rather them signing them to a lucrative extension, they can evaluate them on a year-to-year basis.

It seems unlikely that Green and Jones each get extended before Dez Bryant and Demarius Thomas. Bryant and Thomas have more leverage considering their clubs control their rights for two seasons compared to three, and are playing at a higher salary this season, which is fully guaranteed. They all deserve to be compensated like a top five receiver, and would most likely use Calvin Johnson’s contract as a benchmark. Johnson is the NFL’s highest paid wide receiver at an average salary of $16.207 million. Mike Wallace, Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Jeremy Maclin are paid 2nd-5th at the position. Their combined average salaries are roughly $11.27 million, which is considerably less than Megatron.

Calvin Johnson is paid considerably more than any other WR because at the time of his extension, nobody at the position was comparable in talent. Green, Jones, Bryant, and Thomas, have each narrowed the gap, and are all considerably more talented players than the rest of the top five highest paid at WR. They deserve to be compensated more closely to Johnson than Wallace, but their teams have been hesitant to extend them to such a lucrative contract just yet. However, one can make the argument that it would be a financially wise decision for those teams to resign their star wide outs before the salary cap continues to increase.

Jeffery and Hilton may show more eagerness to sign extensions this off-season because they are being paid at such low salaries compared to their value. Their 2015 cap numbers are very low however, with Jeffery’s being $1.447 million, and Hilton at $1.673 million. Over the next three seasons, the Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts would be paying their star WRs less money when factoring in their low 2015 salaries and franchise tags in 2016 and 2017, compared to a contract extension. One incentive the Bears and Colts have in signing Jeffery and Hilton to contract extensions would be if they took less salary than the franchise tag estimate at WR in 2016. The same argument can be made for Green and Jones as well, but there is less risk for both of them to play out their contracts since they are each making over $10 million this year.

Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Cornerbacks

Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs

Wide Receivers  |  Tight Ends

Offensive Lineman  |  Pass Rushers

Defensive Lineman  |  Linebackers

PlayerNominal ValueECV% ExpectedECV/Year
Darrelle Revis$70,000,000$50,057,00072%$10,011,400
Byron Maxwell$63,000,000$37,531,25060%$6,255,208
Kareem Jackson$34,000,000$26,977,50079%$6,744,375
Brandon Flowers$36,400,000$23,458,20064%$5,864,550
Chris Culliver$32,000,000$22,328,00070%$5,582,000
Antonio Cromartie$32,000,000$19,587,00061%$4,896,750
Buster Skrine$25,000,000$18,472,00074%$4,618,000
Davon House$24,500,000$18,235,00074%$4,558,750
Cary Williams$18,000,000$10,752,00060%$3,584,000
Brandon Browner$15,000,000$10,190,50068%$3,396,833
Tramon Williams$21,000,000$9,761,60046%$3,253,867
Perris Cox$15,000,000$9,140,00061%$3,046,667
Brice McCain$5,500,000$3,943,00072%$1,971,500
Darius Butler$5,000,000$2,989,50060%$1,494,750
Jimmy Wilson$4,250,000$2,740,00064%$1,370,000
CB Total:66.4%
Global Total (122 Free Agents):67.5%
Notable One-Year Contracts:
Walter Thurmond:   $3,250,000 ($2,000,000 guaranteed)
Shareece Wright:   $3,000,000 ($1,500,000 guaranteed)
Terrence Newman:   $2,250,000 ($750,000 guaranteed)
Bradley Fletcher:   $2,150,000 ($550,000 guaranteed)
Patrick Robinson:   $2,000,000 ($1,250,000 guaranteed)
 
PlayerMost Likely Cut YearDead Money Remaining
Darrelle Revis2018 (32%)*$1,666,666**
Byron Maxwell2018 (43%)$2,400,000
Kareem Jackson2018 (37%)$2,250,000
Brandon Flowers2017 (38%)$4,000,000
Chris Culliver2017 (48%)$2,500,000
Antonio Cromartie2017 (36%)$1,000,000
Buster Skrine2018 (38%)$1,250,000
Davon House2018 (35%)$0
Cary Williams2016 (49%)$2,333,333
Brandon Browner2017 (18%)$1,300,000
Tramon Williams2016 (24%)$3,800,000
Perrish Cox2017 (31%)$833,333
Brice McCain2016 (41%)$1,000,000
Darius Butler2016 (32%)$500,000
Jimmy Wilson2016 (31%)$0
 

*Refers to the likelihood that the player will remain under contract in the given season.  This column displays the first season where the likelihood falls below 50%.

**Refers to the amount of dead money that the team will incur upon releasing the player in the season identified in the second column.

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.