Expected Contract Value Weekly Roundup

Rather than update all eight of the division-by-division posts, I will do a weekly roundup post where I compare the ECV forecasts with the transactions that are made (or not made) in real life.  In this week’s post, the focus will be on comparing the 2015 Expected Outcomes to the releases and non-releases, but after free agency begins I will provide the Expected Contract Value for new contracts as well.

In total, I ran the model on 479 players.  Of those 479 players, Expected Contract Value determined an Expected Outcome greater than 50% (meaning more likely to be kept under … Read the rest

The Compensatory Draft Pick Program Is Ready For 2016 (With One Big Question)

A new update and a new addition has been made to the program devoted to projecting the NFL’s compensatory draft picks. These two items now have the program prepared to track not only the past (2015), but also the future (2016 and onward).

The update now has the 2016 tab on OTC’s draft page operational. Right now, the list of 2016 comp picks is quite boring—it is just showing the order of a hypothetical 8th round based on the 2015 draft order. Those represent the “non-compensatory” draft picks that would be awarded if there were fewer than 32 compensatory picks … Read the rest

General Manager League UPDATE: SD available

Just a quick update for those who didn’t make it the first time, the Chargers are available.

For those of us wishing we had a bit more control over what our favourite teams do, or simply just love the roster gymnastics of the offseason, I’d like to introduce and invite you to the General Manager League.

Essentially you are taking over a team and running them through the NFL offseason from a certain point in time forward against other human players. If you’ve followed your favourite team during the offseason, or played Madden’s franchise mode, you know the process. There … Read the rest

Updates To OTC’s Free Agency Page

With free agency only ten days away I felt that it would be prudent to add a couple features to our respective page to increase its value to our readers.  The two major changes you will see are as follows:

  • If a free agent changes teams, his old and new team will now be displayed. Now, if you filter by a team, you will see both its free agents that it lost and gained.  For 2015, most of the new team entries are obviously blank, but that will of course rapidly change after March 10.
  • The data now loads one
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@ZackMooreNFL’s Trip to Indy, Breaking Into the NFL Industry and Our Coming E-Book!

For people trying to break into the NFL, the sports industry or any industry, I hope you can gain some insight and/or some inspiration from this piece. In no way is this meant to be braggadocious as I am just a really normal, average guy and if I can do this, you can too. I was a horrible student, but I always knew what I loved to do, worked toward that and figured out a way to get by my courses in college at Rhode Island and in Business School at Rutgers.

I had a great week in Indianapolis at … Read the rest

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC North

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  NFC North

NFC East   |   AFC East

NFC West   |   AFC West

NFC South   |   AFC South

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as Read the rest

2015 Compensatory Draft Pick Projection Update (2/18/2015): A Change To Same-Round Cancellations & Cutoffs By Round, Plus Some Thoughts On LeGarrette Blount

Since this is the first year I have set out to project the NFL’s compensatory draft picks (via a program built using OTC’s data), I anticipated that there would be mistakes along the way as part of simply learning more of the process. I have already issued a couple corrections as I have learned more, and I’ve anticipated all along that when the official picks are announced in late March that there will be several misses that the program will make.… Read the rest