Best and Worst NFL Contracts 2016: Miami Dolphins

Over the summer we’ll be putting up our selections for the best and worst contract on each team. We continue today with the AFC East and the Miami Dolphins

Best: Reshad Jones, 4 years, $28M, $15M guaranteed

Miami has been a bit odd through the years in that they often sign what would be considered very player friendly contracts with free agents but when it comes to negotiating with their own players are actually much more conservative than other teams. I think that was somewhat evident with the Reshad Jones extension back in 2013. The Jones contract is a prime example of how teams can exploit certain demands from the player side by conceding on things like annual value but structuring the contract in a way where the real value is far lower. Continue reading Best and Worst NFL Contracts 2016: Miami Dolphins »

OTC Podcast 6/19: Fletcher Cox Contract, Oher Extension…

In this weeks OTC podcast Jason and Bryce discuss:

The Fletcher Cox contract extension with the Eagles

The Panthers decision to extend Michaek Oher and upcoming negotiation with Kawaan Short

Eugene Monroe’s release

The Broncos contract decisions

The best and worst contract on the Buffalo Bills

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Fletcher Cox Contract Analytics

Contract Analytics:  Cordy Glenn | Terron Armstead | Josh Norman | Shawn Williams | Jordan Reed |Allen Hurns | Harrison Smith

Members of the NFL media will analyze this contract from a number of perspectives, each stressing that the face value of the contract is not determinative of the amount of money Cox will receive or the strength of the contract relative to other contracts, while at the same time highlighting certain pertinent contract characteristics.   Many will note the amount of “total guarantees”, while others will focus on the “full guarantees at signing”.  Others may highlight the amount of money that will be fully guaranteed as of a certain point in time (such as March 2017), while others will stress the annual cash flows.  The analysis may include phrases such as “virtually guaranteed” or “practically guaranteed”, and the observations may note that “the contract is really $X over Y years, followed by Z team options.”

I do not disagree with any of this analysis.  All of these contract characteristics are important to varying degrees and should be weighted in the analysis as appropriate.  However, the degree of nuance in the contract makes it exceedingly difficult for any one person to synthesize all of the relevant information and articulate analysis that does not over-emphasize any particular characteristic.  The best approach is to establish a framework for analysis that incorporates all of the considerations that one deems to be important to contract analysis, and to then apply that framework to all new contracts such that each is analyzed in a holistic, objective and consistent manner.  This is the goal of Expected Contract Value:

Continue reading Fletcher Cox Contract Analytics »

Harrison Smith Contract Analytics

Contract Analytics:  Cordy Glenn | Terron Armstead | Josh Norman | Shawn Williams | Jordan Reed | Allen Hurns

Harrison Smith signed a five-year extension with the Vikings reportedly worth a face value of $56,528,000, of which $51.25 million is considered “new money” and $15.278 million is guaranteed at the time of signing. The Expected Contract Value of the deal is $37,370,859 (66% of the face value):

Continue reading Harrison Smith Contract Analytics »

Allen Hurns Contract Analytics

Contract Analytics:  Cordy Glenn | Terron Armstead | Josh Norman | Shawn Williams | Jordan Reed

Allen Hurns signed a four-year extension with the Jaguars reportedly worth a face value of $40,650,000, of which $40.05 million is considered “new money” and $16 million is guaranteed at the time of signing. The Expected Contract Value of the deal is $29,261,110 (72% of face value):

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The Problem With APY-Based Contract Analysis

On Thursday, Allen Hurns and the Jaguars reached an agreement on a four-year contract extension that covers Hurns’ restricted free agent season (2017) and buys out three potential unrestricted free agent seasons (2018-2020). While the contract details have not yet been published, the extension was initially reported as worth $10 million per year on the basis of $40 million worth of new money and 4 extension seasons. One other way to look at this report is that the contract is worth $8.12 million per year on the basis of $40.6 million worth of total money over 5 total contract seasons. Jason has pointed out that the extension is worth $12.4 million per year over just three extension seasons once the potential 2017 RFA tag is taken into consideration when determining new money and new years.  I think it does not matter which view of APY one takes, because APY-based contract analysis is based on a flawed premise.

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The Salary Cap in the NBA Finals

I haven’t watched basketball much over the last few years, but I have been watching the end of the Western Conference Finals and Game 1 of the NBA Finals, so I’ve been kind of looking at the game with fresh eyes after not following for about six to eight years. What I see in the Warriors roster construction reminds me of my time as a player my town’s travel basketball team playing against AAU basketball teams from New York City like Team Roc and the Gauchos. We had about seven or eight players who could play at a high level, so we’d compete with these rosters that were 10-12 players deep for a half, then they’d beat that ass in the second half and we’d lose by 30.

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