Zach Ertz: Expected Contract Value & Expected Cap Numbers

Zach Ertz
Stated Value: $43,638,527
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
Expected Contract Value:$29,052,504 (67%)
Zach Ertz
YearCap NumberProbabilityDead MoneyProbabilityExpected Cap Number
Total:   $31,253,213
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General Manager League 2016

The General Manager League is back for another year! For some this will be a new experience and for others this will be a much welcome return.

For those of you new to this, we have all wished we had a bit more control over what our favourite teams do, or simply just love the roster gymnastics of the offseason, I’d like to introduce and invite you to the General Manager League.

Essentially you are taking over a team and running them through the NFL offseason from a certain point in time forward against other human players. If you’ve followed your favourite team during the offseason, or played Madden’s franchise mode, you know the process. There are some tweaks as it’s a one year league, but the general idea remains the same. The numbers, of course come from right here at OverTheCap.

The basics can be found at ’16 GML Rules, Info, & Timeline and any questions will happily be answered!

To register please use this link to sign up

Roll Tide: The Process and Principles

Ever since 2009, I have taken a huge interest in Alabama football because I had the privilege of editing Dr. Kevin Elko’s book Touchdown during my freshman year at the University of Rhode Island in 2008-09. I had this cool privilege because my dad published the book in 2010 and, with athletes and coaches being the target market, I was the perfect sounding board that Dr. Elko wanted to hear from. This was just prior to the first of four Alabama National Championships with Dr. Elko as their performance coach.

I carried that book in my backpack for the entirety of my college football career and it helped me as a sort of meditative exercises before I knew actually what meditation was. Like transcendental meditation, Elko gave me mantras like “NO JUDGEMENT” to repeat to myself during winter workouts and focus on a mantra rather than how terrible winter workouts were.

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Commitment Index: January 2016

Last week I posted the Realizable Cap Space and True Cap Space of each team in order to show the degree to which each team has already truly committed its 2016 salary cap space.   Today I will examine an updated Commitment Index to show the degree to which each team has committed salary cap space to players on its current roster for 2017 and beyond. As a reminder, Commitment Index measures future salary cap commitments – prorated signing bonus amounts and guaranteed base salaries – net of current salary cap space, measured relative to the average net future salary cap commitments of all teams. The premise is that a team can only “mortgage its future” by committing future salary cap space to the extent that it does so to a greater degree than the other teams in the league (thereby leaving it in a disadvantaged position in terms of the ability to use cap space in the future). Scoring highly in Commitment Index is not necessary a bad thing; it depends on the strength of the roster to which the team has committed.

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Analytics, Technocrats, & the Distinction Between Talent Evaluation and Resource Allocation

Earlier today the Cleveland Browns hired Paul DePodesta away from the New York Mets to assume the newly created role of Chief Strategy Officer. As a key figure in Moneyball the book and the basis for Jonah Hill’s character in Moneyball the movie, DePodesta is closely associated with sports analytics.  Because of DePodesta’s association with analytics and the fact that his experience as an executive lies in baseball, the reactions to this hire were, unsurprisingly, quite strong.

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Projecting the 2016 Compensatory Draft Picks


For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article.

To kick this off, 2016 marks the first year in which I have used, as suggested by the resolution allowing comp picks to be traded on December 2, 2015, a “rank[ing] against all players in the League who are on rosters at the end of the season”. At the end of the 2015 season, OTC’s database had a total of 2088 players that were either on the active roster or injured reserve. As explained in the general methodology in the previous link, the cutoffs for each round and for qualifying as a compensatory free agent (CFA) have been established by this projection on certain percentile ranks of all players on the active roster and injured reserve at the end of the regular season, sorted by adjusted APY in descending order and also represented by the player at the cutoff point. For 2016, these cutoffs are as follows: Continue reading Projecting the 2016 Compensatory Draft Picks »