2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC North

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  AFC North

NFC East   |   AFC East

NFC West   |   AFC West

NFC South   |   AFC South

NFC North

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Baltimore Ravens:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Eugene Monroe98.4%NO
Terrell Suggs98.2%NO
Joe Flacco98.1%NO
Dennis Pitta97.8%NO
Jeremy Zuttah95.1%NO
Elvis Dumervil76.1%NO
Lardarius Webb72.5%NO
Jacoby Jones71.9%NO
Daryl Smith56.2%NO
Marshal Yanda37.1%YES
Haloti Ngata36.3%YES
Steve Smith24.8%YES
Chris Canty22.1%YES
Sam Koch17.9%YES

Pittsburgh Steelers:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Ryan Shazier99.9%NO
Jarvis Jones98.3%NO
Maurkice Pouncey98.2%NO
Marcus Gilbert95.6%NO
Cortez Allen95.2%NO
Antonio Brown88.5%NO
Mike Mitchell87.8%NO
Shaun Suisham71.4%NO
David DeCastro71.2%NO
Lawrence Timmons61.9%NO
Heath Miller61.2%NO
Troy Polamalu46.6%YES
Cam Thomas44.2%YES
Steve McLendon39.5%YES
Ramon Foster36.9%YES
Ben Roethlisberger22.8%YES

Cincinnati Bengals:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Tyler Eifert97.4%NO
Andy Dalton97.0%NO
Carlos Dunlap95.2%NO
Vontaze Burfict94.9%NO
Geno Atkins93.8%NO
Dre Kirkpatrick81.0%NO
Domata Peko74.0%NO
Kevin Zeitler71.0%NO
Kevin Huber55.1%NO
Andre Smith46.0%YES
Leon Hall36.2%YES
Vincent Rey35.9%YES
Wallace Gillberry33.1%YES
Reggie Nelson27.4%YES
Adam Jones20.8%YES
Robert Geathers19.7%YES
Andrew Whitworth19.7%YES

Cleveland Browns:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Justin Gilbert99.9%NO
Joe Haden99.4%NO
Alex Mack95.6%NO
Barkevious Mingo93.8%NO
Donte Whitner83.0%NO
Karlos Dansby79.7%NO
Joe Thomas71.4%NO
Andrew Hawkins67.0%NO
Paul Kruger64.4%NO
Desmond Bryant63.8%NO

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

  • Ben Anderson

    A 22.8% chance the Steelers keep Roethlisberger? Marshall Yanda? Haloti Ngata? Chris Canty? Andrew Whitworth? Maybe you should enter some kind of “practical sense” into the model somewhere.

    The Browns should keep Paul Kruger and Desmond Bryant? Steelers should keep Mike Mitchell and Cortez Allen? 94% chance the Bengals keep Geno Atkins at that number? A 95% chance that the Ravens keep Zuttah at that number? Dennis Pitta at that number?

    From a practical standpoint, this model stinks.

    • Bryce Johnston

      As we explained in the introduction series, the goal at the outset was
      to see how accurate we could get without including any “practical sense”
      at all. Perhaps surprisingly, the model would have predicted about 80%
      accurately for the 1,500 contract seasons currently in the database.
      We will diligently track the results during this offseason and through
      cuts at the end of training camp to see if that holds up.
      Roethlisberger will obviously fall into the 20% that will be wrong. In
      Part 5, we identified that many starting quarterbacks will have results
      similar to that. I think the model actually looks extremely accurate
      for most of the players you identified. Pitta would count $12.8 million
      against the cap if released. If anything, I’m surprised the model
      didn’t say 99.9%. Similar reason for Zuttah. Geno Atkins would count
      $9 million against the cap if cut, and $9 million if retained. It would
      make no sense to release him, short of a career ending injury or
      disturbing legal troubles.