2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC North

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  NFC North

NFC East   |   AFC East

NFC West   |   AFC West

NFC South   |   AFC South

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Green Bay Packers:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Aaron Rodgers97.3%NO
Jordy Nelson97.3%NO
Datone Jones96.2%NO
Morgan Burnett93.0%NO
Sam Shields91.8%NO
Clay Matthews89.6%NO
Nick Perry71.0%NO
TJ Lang65.5%NO
Josh Sitton58.1%NO
Mike Neal51.5%NO
Brad Jones38.5%YES
AJ Hawk28.3%YES
Julius Peppers22.9%YES
Mason Crosby22.8%YES

Detroit Lions:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Eric Ebron99.9%NO
Matt Stafford98.4%NO
Ezekial Ansah97.9%NO
Golden Tate96.5%NO
Calvin Johnson89.7%NO
Glover Quin78.7%NO
Brandon Pettigrew78.0%NO
Riley Reiff68.8%NO
Joique Bell67.6%NO
Reggie Bush57.2%NO
Stephen Tulloch45.0%YES
DeAndre Levy42.7%YES
Jason Jones38.2%YES
James Ihedigbo26.0%YES

Chicago Bears:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Kyle Fuller99.9%NO
Kyle Long96.7%NO
Jay Cutler94.2%NO
Tim Jennings91.1%NO
Lamarr Houston83.9%NO
Jared Allen83.7%NO
Brandon Marshall78.2%NO
Shea McClellin76.8%NO
Matt Slauson70.1%NO
Jermon Bushrod65.9%NO
Willie Young62.8%NO
Martellus Bennett57.7%NO
Robbie Gould51.0%NO
Matt Forte34.9%YES

Minnesota Vikings:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Anthony Barr99.9%NO
Kyle Rudolph99.8%NO
Linval Joseph98.0%NO
Everson Griffen97.9%NO
Sharrif Floyd97.0%NO
Xavier Rhodes96.2%NO
Brandon Fusco96.1%NO
Matt Kalil84.6%NO
Harrison Smith65.1%NO
Captain Munnerlyn62.8%NO
Adrian Peterson62.0%NO
Phil Loadholt59.3%NO
Brian Robison58.0%NO
Greg Jennings53.7%NO
John Sullivan49.2%YES
Matt Cassel48.7%YES
Jerome Felton35.0%YES
Charlie Johnson24.3%YES
Chad Greenway20.0%YES

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

  • Dan Kunze

    I will be very interested to see what my Bears do this offseason compared to your chart. I think there may be more change than what is plotted here. To me, this will be one of the most interesting off seasons for the Bears in recent memory.