With a few weeks of snap counts in the books for the 2019 regular season, let’s take a look at where the 2020 compensatory picks projection stands.
First, let’s start with identifying some changes from last May that I feel will be permanent.
All of these losses of mid round comp picks have created a situation not seen since 2013: few, if any comp picks not being awarded due to missing the 32 pick limit. This is good news for teams like Denver, Minnesota, and the New York Giants who were previously at risk for missing out on 7th rounders due to that limit. As I’ll explain below, as it stands now there are 33 eligible comp picks, and as I see it, that number may fall to exactly 32, opening the way for Tampa Bay to be awarded with the rare net value 7th rounder for losing and gaining the same number of CFAs, but with the ones lost being valued significantly higher.
Meanwhile, this year there has been an unusual amount of movement on the compensatory picks board that I believe is largely caused to injuries to key players, most but not all of whom are compensatory free agents. Most of these changes I do not expect to linger as the players in question return to full health, but just in case they don’t, it’s at least worthwhile to study some of these changes that could stick.
For this update, I’ll do something different by displaying two tables. The first one is where the projections stand right now, after Week 3. The second one is an injury-adjusted table that attempts to take into account when some of those injured players might come back, by adjusting their snap counts accordingly.
Current Projection | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Round | Compensated Free Agent | APY |
NE | 3 | Trent Brown | $16,250,000 |
NYG | 3 | Landon Collins | $14,000,000 |
HOU | 3 | Tyrann Mathieu | $14,000,000 |
SEA | 3 | Earl Thomas | $13,750,000 |
NE | 3 | Trey Flowers | $18,000,000 |
PIT | 3 | Le’Veon Bell | $13,125,000 |
LAR | 3 | Rodger Saffold | $11,000,000 |
HOU | 3 | Kareem Jackson | $11,000,000 |
PHI | 3 | Nick Foles | $22,000,000 |
MIN | 3 | Sheldon Richardson | $11,933,333 |
BAL | 4 | C.J. Mosley | $17,000,000 |
WAS | 4 | Jamison Crowder | $9,500,000 |
SEA | 4 | Justin Coleman | $9,000,000 |
BAL | 4 | John Brown | $9,000,000 |
KC | 4 | Steven Nelson | $8,500,000 |
MIA | 4 | Ja’Wuan James | $12,750,000 |
DEN | 5 | Billy Turner | $7,000,000 |
DAL | 5 | Cole Beasley | $7,250,000 |
MIA | 5 | Cameron Wake | $7,666,667 |
NE | 6 | Malcom Brown | $5,000,000 |
NE | 6 | Cordarrelle Patterson | $5,000,000 |
SEA | 6 | Shamar Stephen | $4,150,000 |
SEA | 7 | Mike Davis | $2,975,000 |
NYG | 7 | Mario Edwards | $2,500,000 |
MIN | 7 | Trevor Siemian | $2,000,000 |
HOU | 7 | Christian Covington | $1,687,500 |
DEN | 7 | Max Garcia | $1,796,875 |
DEN | 7 | Tramaine Brock | $1,325,000 |
MIN | 7 | Tom Compton | $1,600,000 |
NYG | 7 | Josh Mauro | $1,300,000 |
MIN | 7 | Andrew Sendejo | $1,200,000 |
NYG | 7 | Kerry Wynn | $1,300,000 |
Compensation over 32-pick limit; not awarded | |||
TB | 7 | net value |
Injury-Adjusted Projection | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Round | Compensated Free Agent | APY |
NE | 3 | Trent Brown | $16,250,000 |
NYG | 3 | Landon Collins | $14,000,000 |
HOU | 3 | Tyrann Mathieu | $14,000,000 |
SEA | 3 | Earl Thomas | $13,750,000 |
NE | 3 | Trey Flowers | $18,000,000 |
PHI | 3 | Nick Foles | $22,000,000 |
PIT | 3 | Le’Veon Bell | $13,125,000 |
BAL | 3 | C.J. Mosley | $17,000,000 |
LAR | 3 | Rodger Saffold | $11,000,000 |
MIA | 3 | Ja’Wuan James | $12,750,000 |
HOU | 3 | Kareem Jackson | $11,000,000 |
MIN | 3 | Sheldon Richardson | $11,933,333 |
WAS | 4 | Jamison Crowder | $9,500,000 |
SEA | 4 | Justin Coleman | $9,000,000 |
BAL | 4 | John Brown | $9,000,000 |
DAL | 5 | Cole Beasley | $7,250,000 |
MIA | 5 | Cameron Wake | $7,666,667 |
NE | 6 | Malcom Brown | $5,000,000 |
DEN | 6 | Shaquil Barrett | $4,000,000 |
NE | 6 | Cordarrelle Patterson | $5,000,000 |
SEA | 6 | Shamar Stephen | $4,150,000 |
SEA | 7 | Mike Davis | $2,975,000 |
NYG | 7 | Mario Edwards | $2,500,000 |
MIN | 7 | Trevor Siemian | $2,000,000 |
HOU | 7 | Christian Covington | $1,687,500 |
DEN | 7 | Max Garcia | $1,796,875 |
DEN | 7 | Tramaine Brock | $1,325,000 |
MIN | 7 | Tom Compton | $1,600,000 |
NYG | 7 | Josh Mauro | $1,300,000 |
MIN | 7 | Andrew Sendejo | $1,200,000 |
NYG | 7 | Kerry Wynn | $1,300,000 |
TB | 7 | net value |
Here are the changes that I do not necessarily expect to stay, and why:
There are a couple other observations to make. One is that Minnesota’s 3rd rounder for Sheldon Richardson is very much on the cusp of falling to a 4th rounder, as defensive linemen tend to not get as many snaps as other positions. Vikings fans should want Richardson to stay healthy and play as much as possible.
The other is that the Texans may pick up a second 3rd round comp pick that would be for Kareem Jackson, instead of a 7th rounder for Kendall Lamm. The reason for this is that Bradley Roby has barely fallen to the 4th round in value, thus avoiding his contract canceling out Jackson’s. However, it’s a very narrow needle being threaded between these two players, and should Roby’s contract inch back up to the 3rd round, the Texans would revert back to a 7th for Lamm instead of a 3rd Jackson. Texans fans should want Jackson to remain healthy and playing nearly all snaps in Denver, as he has done so thus far.
Finally, there are still some opportunities for teams to pick up comp picks if they cut certain players before Week 10:
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