With the league offices closing for today, the second Tuesday after the 2017 NFL Draft, it also closes out the addition of compensatory free agents (CFAs) into the formula for the 2018 NFL Draft. With only CFA subtractions now possible due to cuts or too low of a salary, it’s time to take a look at the list that’s emerged.
Team | Round | Compensated Free Agent | APY |
---|---|---|---|
ARI | 3 | Calais Campbell | $15,000,000 |
HOU | 3 | A.J. Bouye | $13,500,000 |
DEN | 3 | Russell Okung | $13,250,000 |
CIN | 3 | Kevin Zeitler | $12,000,000 |
BAL | 3 | Ricky Wagner | $9,500,000 |
GB | 3 | TJ Lang | $9,500,000 |
NYG | 4 | Johnathan Hankins | $9,000,000 |
DAL | 4 | Ronald Leary | $8,925,000 |
NE | 4 | Jabaal Sheard | $8,500,000 |
ARI | 4 | Tony Jefferson | $8,500,000 |
CIN | 5 | Andrew Whitworth | $11,250,000 |
NE | 5 | Martellus Bennett | $6,750,000 |
DAL | 5 | Barry Church | $6,500,000 |
OAK | 5 | Menelik Watson | $6,000,000 |
PIT | 5 | Lawrence Timmons | $5,975,000 |
DAL | 5 | Brandon Carr | $5,750,000 |
GB | 5 | JC Tretter | $5,583,333 |
KC | 5 | Nick Foles | $5,500,000 |
ARI | 6 | Marcus Cooper | $5,333,333 |
GB | 6 | Jared Cook | $5,000,000 |
DAL | 6 | Morris Claiborne | $5,000,000 |
OAK | 6 | Latavius Murray | $4,900,000 |
HOU | 6 | John Simon | $4,500,000 |
ARI | 6 | DJ Swearinger | $4,500,000 |
HOU | 6 | Quintin Demps | $4,500,000 |
GB | 6 | Eddie Lacy | $3,865,000 |
OAK | 6 | DJ Hayden | $3,500,000 |
MIN | 6 | Adrian Peterson | $3,500,000 |
OAK | 6 | Nate Allen | $3,400,000 |
MIN | 6 | Andre Smith | $3,050,000 |
LAC | 7 | Manti Te’o | $2,500,000 |
CIN | 7 | Margus Hunt | $2,050,000 |
Compensation over 32-pick limit; not awarded | |||
CIN | 7 | Karlos Dansby | $2,000,000 |
TB | 7 | Bradley McDougald | $2,000,000 |
ATL | 7 | Tom Compton | $1,850,000 |
NYG | 7 | Marshall Newhouse | $1,550,000 |
NYG | 7 | Coty Sensabaugh | $1,300,000 |
MIN | 7 | Audie Cole | $1,300,000 |
ATL | 7 | Eric Weems | $1,300,000 |
BAL | 7 | Vladimir Ducasse | $1,166,667 |
HOU | 7 | Don Jones | $1,100,000 |
The quality of 2018 compensatory picks looks to be reduced compared to 2017. There were eleven 3rd round picks and six 4th round picks awarded in 2017. For 2018, OTC’s formula is currently projecting six 3rd round picks and four 4th round picks. The reason why is this year, teams were more willing to cancel out high CFAs last offseason as opposed to this time around. Last year, Denver was the only team to cancel out a 3rd round comp pick (in a move they may not have fully intended to do), and only three 4th round comp picks were canceled out. This year, six teams elected to cancel out seven possible 3rd round comp picks alone: Buffalo (Stephon Gilmore), New England (Logan Ryan), Washington (DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon), Detroit (Riley Reiff), Minnesota (Matt Kalil), and Tampa Bay (Mike Glennon). Denver may add to that number as well (more on that later).
However, any quality reduced has been replaced with an increase in quantity: as it stands now, there are 41 eligible compensatory picks, one shy of the all time record of 42 set in 2016. Of course, only 32 picks may actually be awarded, so several teams will see their comp pick haul reduced (and in the case of Tampa Bay and Atlanta, possibly eliminated). In particular, the 6th round looks to be quite bountiful–12 are currently projected to be awarded in 2018, where 2017 saw only 3 awarded.
As with every year, there will be some picks in which there will be a question as to whether or not they will be awarded. The one pick I am the most concerned and skeptical about by far is the 6th round comp pick projected to the Vikings for Adrian Peterson. The reason I am concerned and skeptical is that he became a UFA in 2017 only by renegotiating his contract. That renegotiation allowed the Vikings to shorten it via a team option on 2017, one that as we know they declined. Because (as usual) the Saints had no hope in gaining 2018 compensatory picks, they had nothing to lose in signing Peterson before May 9. The question is whether this transaction will be to the benefit of the Vikings.
I’ve gone back and forth in my mind on whether to allow Peterson to qualify as a CFA in the program. I’ve decided to allow it so I can illustrate the possibility of what the Vikings would get for Peterson if he does qualify. But please beware that my confidence level is low in that guess, and I could very easily be wrong about that guess.
For the next few months, the most important thing to watch for with regards to 2017 compensatory picks is if any CFAs fail to make their team’s roster. If any CFA is permanently cut from their team’s roster before Week 10, they will not qualify for the compensatory formula. Using a little intuition, there are some teams that could feasibly improve their standing in 2018 compensatory picks if they cut certain players, and other teams that need to hope that certain teams don’t cut some of their former players.
Last year, the most extreme example of that was the New York Jets cutting Jarvis Jenkins just before the Week 10 deadline. That allowed the team to pick up a 3rd round comp pick for Damon Harrison. The Jets then turned that pick into three players thanks to draft day tradedowns. Those three players were Chad Hansen, Jeremy Clark, and Derrick Jones. If any of those players become contributors, Jets fans can thank Mike Maccagnan’s sharp decision to cut Jenkins at just the right time.
After reviewing data that I entered from the 2016 season, it is my belief that I erroneously added around 150 more players to the leaguewide portion of the formula than I should have. Once I culled those players, it’s now my guess that 1922 players represented the total of players of which CFAs were judged against for the 2017 compensatory formula. I am using this number to project 2018 compensatory picks for now, but of course the actual number will be different depending on how many players end the 2017 regular season on an active roster or injured reserve.
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