Rather than update the long posts from last week, I will just link to those previous posts and then list the contracts for which we obtained details over the past week. The pace of signings has clearly slowed significantly, and there are not many noteworthy free agents who remain unsigned. I am not going to run the model on one-year contracts, and there are a few contracts for which I have not yet seen details (Charles Clay, Kenny Britt, Stevie Johnson, and Dwayne Bowe). A couple of weeks from now I will review the Expected Contract Value results one position group at a time.
Week 1: Offense
Week 1: Defense
Offense:
| Mike Iupati |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
— |
98.9% |
— |
$11,500,000 |
| 2016 |
$4,500,000 |
87.0% |
$3,915,000 |
— |
| 2017 |
$8,000,000 |
54.4% |
$4,352,000 |
— |
| 2018 |
$8,000,000 |
31.3% |
$2,504,000 |
— |
| 2019 |
$8,000,000 |
21.3% |
$1,704,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$12,475,000 |
$11,500,000 |
| Total |
|
$23,975,000 |
| CJ Spiller |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
— |
99.5% |
— |
$5,750,000 |
| 2016 |
$3,250,000 |
82.4% |
$2,678,000 |
— |
| 2017 |
$3,600,000 |
51.3% |
$1,846,800 |
— |
| 2018 |
$3,400,000 |
30.5% |
$1,037,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$5,561,800 |
$5,750,000 |
| Total |
|
$11,311,800 |
| Jordan Cameron |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$2,500,000 |
93.2% |
$2,330,000 |
$5,000,000 |
| 2016 |
$7,500,000 |
44.3% |
$3,322,500 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$5,652,500 |
$5,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$10,652,500 |
| Cecil Shorts |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$500,000 |
95.2% |
$476,000 |
$2,500,000 |
| 2016 |
$3,000,000 |
43.3% |
$1,299,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$1,775,000 |
$2,500,000 |
| Total |
|
$4,275,000 |
| Paul Fanaika |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$800,000 |
94.3% |
$754,400 |
$1,750,000 |
| 2016 |
$1,550,000 |
61.8% |
$957.900 |
— |
| 2017 |
$2,050,000 |
27.0% |
$553,500 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$2,265,800 |
$1,750,000 |
| Total |
|
$4,015,800 |
| Scott Chandler |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$1,250,000 |
84.0% |
$1,050,000 |
$2,000,000 |
| 2016 |
$2,050,000 |
32.9% |
$674,450 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$1,724,450 |
$2,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$3,724,450 |
| DeAngelo Williams |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$870,000 |
73.8% |
$642,060 |
$1,130,000 |
| 2016 |
$2,000,000 |
18.1% |
$362,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$1,004,060 |
$1,130,000 |
| Total |
|
$2,134,060 |
| Antonio Cromartie |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
— |
99.3% |
— |
$7,000,000 |
| 2016 |
— |
89.6% |
— |
$8,000,000 |
| 2017 |
$7,000,000 |
36.2% |
$2,534,000 |
$1,000,000 |
| 2018 |
$9,000,000 |
11.7% |
$1,053,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$3,587,000 |
$16,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$19,587,000 |
| Derrick Morgan |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
— |
99.5% |
— |
$8,500,000 |
| 2016 |
$5,000,000 |
86.8% |
$4,340,000 |
— |
| 2017 |
$6,500,000 |
58.3% |
$3,789,500 |
— |
| 2018 |
$7,000,000 |
36.8% |
$2,576,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$10,705,500 |
$8,500,000 |
| Total |
|
$19,205,500 |
| Marcus Gilchrist |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$1,500,000 |
97.9% |
1,468,500 |
$3,500,000 |
| 2016 |
$5,000,000 |
78.3% |
$3,915,000 |
— |
| 2017 |
$6,000,000 |
49.9% |
$2,994,000 |
— |
| 2018 |
$6,000,000 |
34.5% |
$2,070,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$10,447,500 |
$3,500,000 |
| Total |
|
$13,947,500 |
| Ron Parker |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$250,000 |
99.5% |
$248,750 |
$5,750,000 |
| 2016 |
$2,250,000 |
91.8% |
$2,065,500 |
— |
| 2017 |
$4,250,000 |
62.9% |
$2,673,250 |
— |
| 2018 |
$6,000,000 |
28.6% |
$1,716,000 |
— |
| 2019 |
$6,500,000 |
17.0% |
$1,105,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$7,808,500 |
$5,750,000 |
| Total |
|
$13,558,500 |
| Michael Johnson |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$1,500,000 |
97.8% |
$1,467,000 |
$4,500,000 |
| 2016 |
$5,000,000 |
73.6% |
$3,680,000 |
— |
| 2017 |
$4,000,000 |
50.5% |
$2,020,000 |
— |
| 2018 |
$5,000,000 |
26.6% |
$1,330,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$8,497,000 |
$4,500,000 |
| Total |
|
$12,997,000 |
| Curtis Lofton |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$100,000 |
96.4% |
$96,400 |
$6,500,000 |
| 2016 |
$5,450,000 |
59.4% |
$3,237,300 |
— |
| 2017 |
$5,950,000 |
24.5% |
$1,457,750 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$4,791,450 |
$6,500,000 |
| Total |
|
$11,291,450 |
| Tramon Williams |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$300,000 |
90.7% |
$272,100 |
$7,200,000 |
| 2016 |
$6,500,000 |
23.7% |
$1,540,500 |
— |
| 2017 |
$7,000,000 |
10.7% |
$749,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$2,561,600 |
$7,200,000 |
| Total |
|
$9,761,600 |
| Perrish Cox |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$2,500,000 |
91.6% |
$2,290,000 |
$2,500,000 |
| 2016 |
$5,000,000 |
55.7% |
$2,785,000 |
— |
| 2017 |
$5,000,000 |
31.3% |
$1,565,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$6,640,000 |
$2,500,000 |
| Total |
|
$9,140,000 |
| Vince Wilfork |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
— |
87.3% |
— |
$5,000,000 |
| 2016 |
$4,000,000 |
16.4% |
$656,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$656,000 |
$5,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$5,656,000 |
| Akeem Ayers |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$250,000 |
96.7% |
$241,750 |
$2,750,000 |
| 2016 |
$3,000,000 |
47.4% |
$1,422,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$1,663,750 |
$2,750,000 |
| Total |
|
$4,413,750 |
| Alan Branch |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$1,800,000 |
69.4% |
$1,249,200 |
$700,000 |
| 2016 |
$2,400,000 |
26.3% |
$631,200 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$1,880,400 |
$700,000 |
| Total |
|
$2,580,400 |
Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”
Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs
Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison
Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting
Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions
Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.
Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.
Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.