Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts (Week 2 Signings)

Rather than update the long posts from last week, I will just link to those previous posts and then list the contracts for which we obtained details over the past week.  The pace of signings has clearly slowed significantly, and there are not many noteworthy free agents who remain unsigned.  I am not going to run the model on one-year contracts, and there are a few contracts for which I have not yet seen details (Charles Clay, Kenny Britt, Stevie Johnson, and Dwayne Bowe).  A couple of weeks from now I will review the Expected Contract Value results one position group at a time.

Week 1:  Offense

Week 1:  Defense

Offense:

Mike Iupati
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201598.9%$11,500,000
2016$4,500,00087.0%$3,915,000
2017$8,000,00054.4%$4,352,000
2018$8,000,00031.3%$2,504,000
2019$8,000,00021.3%$1,704,000
Subtotal$12,475,000$11,500,000
Total$23,975,000
 
CJ Spiller
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.5%$5,750,000
2016$3,250,00082.4%$2,678,000
2017$3,600,00051.3%$1,846,800
2018$3,400,00030.5%$1,037,000
Subtotal$5,561,800$5,750,000
Total$11,311,800
 
Jordan Cameron
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,500,00093.2%$2,330,000$5,000,000
2016$7,500,00044.3%$3,322,500
Subtotal$5,652,500$5,000,000
Total$10,652,500
 
Cecil Shorts
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$500,00095.2%$476,000$2,500,000
2016$3,000,00043.3%$1,299,000
Subtotal$1,775,000$2,500,000
Total$4,275,000
 
Paul Fanaika
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$800,00094.3%$754,400$1,750,000
2016$1,550,00061.8%$957.900
2017$2,050,00027.0%$553,500
Subtotal$2,265,800$1,750,000
Total$4,015,800
 
Scott Chandler
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,250,00084.0%$1,050,000$2,000,000
2016$2,050,00032.9%$674,450
Subtotal$1,724,450$2,000,000
Total$3,724,450
 
DeAngelo Williams
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$870,00073.8%$642,060$1,130,000
2016$2,000,00018.1%$362,000
Subtotal$1,004,060$1,130,000
Total$2,134,060
 

Defense:

Antonio Cromartie
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.3%$7,000,000
201689.6%$8,000,000
2017$7,000,00036.2%$2,534,000$1,000,000
2018$9,000,00011.7%$1,053,000
Subtotal$3,587,000$16,000,000
Total$19,587,000
 
Derrick Morgan
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.5%$8,500,000
2016$5,000,00086.8%$4,340,000
2017$6,500,00058.3%$3,789,500
2018$7,000,00036.8%$2,576,000
Subtotal$10,705,500$8,500,000
Total$19,205,500
 
Marcus Gilchrist
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,500,00097.9%1,468,500$3,500,000
2016$5,000,00078.3%$3,915,000
2017$6,000,00049.9%$2,994,000
2018$6,000,00034.5%$2,070,000
Subtotal$10,447,500$3,500,000
Total$13,947,500
 
Ron Parker
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00099.5%$248,750$5,750,000
2016$2,250,00091.8%$2,065,500
2017$4,250,00062.9%$2,673,250
2018$6,000,00028.6%$1,716,000
2019$6,500,00017.0%$1,105,000
Subtotal$7,808,500$5,750,000
Total$13,558,500
 
Michael Johnson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,500,00097.8%$1,467,000$4,500,000
2016$5,000,00073.6%$3,680,000
2017$4,000,00050.5%$2,020,000
2018$5,000,00026.6%$1,330,000
Subtotal$8,497,000$4,500,000
Total$12,997,000
 
Curtis Lofton
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00096.4%$96,400$6,500,000
2016$5,450,00059.4%$3,237,300
2017$5,950,00024.5%$1,457,750
Subtotal$4,791,450$6,500,000
Total$11,291,450
 
Tramon Williams
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$300,00090.7%$272,100$7,200,000
2016$6,500,00023.7%$1,540,500
2017$7,000,00010.7%$749,000
Subtotal$2,561,600$7,200,000
Total$9,761,600
 
Perrish Cox
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,500,00091.6%$2,290,000$2,500,000
2016$5,000,00055.7%$2,785,000
2017$5,000,00031.3%$1,565,000
Subtotal$6,640,000$2,500,000
Total$9,140,000
 
Vince Wilfork
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201587.3%$5,000,000
2016$4,000,00016.4%$656,000
Subtotal$656,000$5,000,000
Total$5,656,000
 
Akeem Ayers
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00096.7%$241,750$2,750,000
2016$3,000,00047.4%$1,422,000
Subtotal$1,663,750$2,750,000
Total$4,413,750
 
Alan Branch
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,800,00069.4%$1,249,200$700,000
2016$2,400,00026.3%$631,200
Subtotal$1,880,400$700,000
Total$2,580,400
 

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.