I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.
Defensive Lineman:
| Ndamukong Suh |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $15,000 | 100.0% | $15,000 | $26,485,000 |
| 2016 | $15,000 | 99.0% | $14,850 | $23,485,000 |
| 2017 | $15,000 | 94.8% | $14,220 | $9,985,000 |
| 2018 | $17,000,000 | 50.5% | $8,585,000 | — |
| 2019 | $19,000,000 | 34.0% | $6,460,000 | — |
| 2020 | $18,360,000 | 16.6% | $3,047,760 | — |
| Subtotal | | $18,136,830 | $59,955,000 |
| Total | | $78,091,830 |
| Jared Odrick |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.7% | — | $9,000,000 |
| 2016 | — | 96.6% | — | $8,000,000 |
| 2017 | $8,500,000 | 68.8% | $5,848,000 | — |
| 2018 | $8,500,000 | 45.7% | $3,884,500 | — |
| 2019 | $8,500,000 | 24.3% | $2,065,500 | — |
| Subtotal | | $11,798,000 | $17,000,000 |
| Total | | $28,798,000 |
| Dan Williams |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $150,000 | 99.6% | $149,400 | $7,850,000 |
| 2016 | $150,000 | 93.5% | $140,250 | $7,350,000 |
| 2017 | $4,500,000 | 56.5% | $2,542,500 | — |
| 2018 | $5,000,000 | 28.1% | $1,405,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $4,237,150 | $15,200,000 |
| Total | | $19,437,150 |
| Stephen Paea |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $150,000 | 99.1% | $148,650 | $7,850,000 |
| 2016 | $3,450,000 | 85.9% | $2,963,550 | — |
| 2017 | $4,550,000 | 55.5% | $2,525,250 | — |
| 2018 | $5,000,000 | 33.1% | $1,655,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $7,292,450 | $7,850,000 |
| Total | | $15,142,450 |
| Kendall Langford |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $2,500,000 | 92.8% | $2,320,000 | $2,500,000 |
| 2016 | $4,000,000 | 57.1% | $2,284,000 | — |
| 2017 | $4,000,000 | 32.7% | $1,308,000 | — |
| 2018 | $4,200,000 | 20.9% | $877,800 | — |
| Subtotal | | $6,789,800 | $2,500,000 |
| Total | | $9,289,800 |
| Corey Peters |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $200,000 | 98.2% | $196,400 | $4,000,000 |
| 2016 | $1,950,000 | 73.5% | $1,433,250 | — |
| 2017 | $2,850,000 | 37.1% | $1,057,350 | — |
| Subtotal | | $2,687,000 | $4,000,000 |
| Total | | $6,687,000 |
| Tyson Alualu |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 95.2% | — | $3,000,000 |
| 2016 | $1,750,000 | 51.0% | $892,500 | $1,250,000 |
| Subtotal | | $892,500 | $4,250,000 |
| Total | | $5,142,500 |
| Tom Johnson |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $50,000 | 94.1% | $47,050 | $2,250,000 |
| 2016 | $2,350,000 | 44.4% | $1,043,400 | — |
| 2017 | $2,350,000 | 16.0% | $376,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $1,466,450 | $2,250,000 |
| Total | | $3,716,450 |
| Darnell Dockett |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $2,000,000 | 64.9% | $1,298,000 | $2,000,000 |
| 2016 | $3,500,000 | 10.9% | $381,500 | — |
| Subtotal | | $1,679,500 | $2,000,000 |
| Total | | $3,679,500 |
| Cory Redding |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $1,000,000 | 69.3% | $690,000 | $2,000,000 |
| 2016 | $3,000,000 | 11.9% | $357,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $1,047,000 | $2,000,000 |
| Total | | $3,047,500 |
Pass Rushers:
| Jerry Hughes |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $150,000 | 99.7% | $149,550 | $11,625,000 |
| 2016 | $4,675,000 | 97.0% | $4,534,750 | $6,000,000 |
| 2017 | $7,550,000 | 76.6% | $5,783,300 | — |
| 2018 | $7,500,000 | 48.3% | $3,622,500 | — |
| 2019 | $7,500,000 | 30.1% | $2,257,500 | — |
| Subtotal | | $16,347,600 | $17,625,000 |
| Total | | $33,972,600 |
| Pernell McPhee |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $175,000 | 99.0% | $173,250 | $8,500,000 |
| 2016 | $7,175,000 | 80.7% | $5,790,225 | — |
| 2017 | $7,325,000 | 61.2% | $4,482,900 | — |
| 2018 | $7,575,000 | 39.7% | $3,007,275 | — |
| 2019 | $8,000,000 | 29.6% | $2,368,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $15,821,650 | $8,500,000 |
| Total | | $24,321,650 |
| Brandon Graham |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.6% | — | $9,000,000 |
| 2016 | — | 96.0% | — | $4,000,000 |
| 2017 | $6,500,000 | 47.8% | $3,107,000 | — |
| 2018 | $6,500,000 | 31.2% | $2,028,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $5,135,000 | $13,000,000 |
| Total | | $18,135,000 |
| Brian Orakpo |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $500,000 | 98.0% | $490,000 | $8,000,000 |
| 2016 | $7,000,000 | 66.5% | $4,655,000 | — |
| 2017 | $7,750,000 | 35.7% | $2,766,750 | — |
| 2018 | $7,750,000 | 21.4% | $1,658,500 | — |
| Subtotal | | $9,570,250 | $8,000,000 |
| Total | | $17,570,250 |
| Brooks Reed |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.5% | — | $6,900,000 |
| 2016 | $2,500,000 | 92.4% | $2,310,000 | — |
| 2017 | $4,100,000 | 67.7% | $2,775,700 | — |
| 2018 | $4,500,000 | 39.6% | $1,782,000 | — |
| 2019 | $4,500,000 | 26.5% | $1,192,500 | — |
| Subtotal | | $8,060,200 | $6,900,000 |
| Total | | $14,960,200 |
| Bruce Carter |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 98.4% | — | $4,250,000 |
| 2016 | $4,250,000 | 80.2% | $3,408,500 | — |
| 2017 | $4,250,000 | 56.5% | $2,401,250 | — |
| 2018 | $4,250,000 | 29.4% | $1,249,500 | — |
| Subtotal | | $7,059,250 | $4,250,000 |
| Total | | $11,309,250 |
| Trent Cole |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 88.3% | — | $7,750,000 |
| 2016 | $6,250,000 | 18.9% | $1,181,250 | — |
| Subtotal | | $1,181,250 | $7,750,000 |
| Total | | $8,931,250 |
| Jabaal Sheard |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $1,000,000 | 96.6% | $966,000 | $5,000,000 |
| 2016 | $5,000,000 | 54.0% | $2,700,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $3,666,000 | $5,000,000 |
| Total | | $8,666,000 |
| Arthur Moats |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $850,000 | 96.6% | $821,100 | $1,900,000 |
| 2016 | $2,500,000 | 65.4% | $1,635,000 | — |
| 2017 | $2,250,000 | 40.5% | $911,250 | — |
| Subtotal | | $3,367,350 | $1,900,000 |
| Total | | $5,267,350 |
Linebackers:
| David Harris |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 98.8% | — | $7,500,000 |
| 2016 | — | 79.6% | — | $7,500,000 |
| 2017 | $6,500,000 | 17.3% | $1,124,500 | — |
| Subtotal | | $1,124,500 | $15,000,000 |
| Total | | $16,124,500 |
| JT Thomas |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $25,000 | 99.2% | $24,800 | $3,975,000 |
| 2016 | $2,475,000 | 76.9% | $1,903,275 | $525,000 |
| 2017 | $3,000,000 | 40.9% | $1,227,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $3,155,075 | $4,500,000 |
| Total | | $7,655,075 |
| Justin Durant |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $3,250,000 | 79.8% | $2,593,500 | $1,250,000 |
| 2016 | $3,000,000 | 51.4% | $1,542,000 | — |
| 2017 | $3,300,000 | 27.2% | $897,600 | — |
| Subtotal | | $5,033,100 | $1,250,000 |
| Total | | $6,283,100 |
| Malcolm Smith |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $250,000 | 97.1% | $242,750 | $3,750,000 |
| 2016 | $3,000,000 | 54.7% | $1,641,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $1,883,750 | $3,750,000 |
| Total | | $5,633,750 |
| Josh Mauga |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $1,000,000 | 95.7% | $957,000 | $2,250,000 |
| 2016 | $2,000,000 | 68.0% | $1,360,000 | — |
| 2017 | $3,000,000 | 30.3% | $909,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $3,226,000 | $2,250,000 |
| Total | | $5,476,000 |
| Jonathan Casillas |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $25,000 | 98.2% | $24,550 | $2,975,000 |
| 2016 | $2,500,000 | 61.1% | $1,527,500 | — |
| 2017 | $2,500,000 | 33.6% | $840,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $2,392,050 | $2,975,000 |
| Total | | $5,367,050 |
Cornerbacks:
| Darrelle Revis |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.7% | — | $16,000,000 |
| 2016 | — | 95.9% | — | $17,000,000 |
| 2017 | $9,000,000 | 64.8% | $5,832,000 | $6,000,000 |
| 2018 | $11,000,000 | 32.2% | $3,542,000 | — |
| 2019 | $11,000,000 | 15.3% | $1,683,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $11,057,000 | $39,000,000 |
| Total | | $50,057,000 |
| Byron Maxwell |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.8% | — | $13,500,000 |
| 2016 | — | 97.8% | — | $8,500,000 |
| 2017 | $10,500,000 | 63.6% | $6,678,000 | — |
| 2018 | $10,000,000 | 42.6% | $4,260,000 | — |
| 2019 | $9,750,000 | 25.5% | $2,486,250 | — |
| 2020 | $10,750,000 | 19.6% | $2,107,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $15,531,250 | $22,000,000 |
| Total | | $37,531,250 |
| Kareem Jackson |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $250,000 | 99.8% | $249,500 | $14,000,000 |
| 2016 | $250,000 | 96.5% | $241,250 | $6,000,000 |
| 2017 | $6,750,000 | 58.9% | $3,975,750 | — |
| 2018 | $6,750,000 | 37.2% | $2,511,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $6,977,500 | $20,000,000 |
| Total | | $26,977,500 |
| Brandon Flowers |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.9% | — | $10,250,000 |
| 2016 | — | 94.0% | — | $7,750,000 |
| 2017 | $9,000,000 | 38.4% | $3,456,000 | — |
| 2018 | $9,400,000 | 21.3% | $2,002,200 | — |
| Subtotal | | $5,458,200 | $18,000,000 |
| Total | | $23,458,200 |
| Chris Culliver |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.9% | — | $8,000,000 |
| 2016 | — | 95.9% | — | $8,000,000 |
| 2017 | $8,000,000 | 47.9% | $3,832,000 | — |
| 2018 | $8,000,000 | 31.2% | $2,496,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $6,328,000 | $16,000,000 |
| Total | | $22,328,000 |
| Buster Skrine |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.9% | — | $6,500,000 |
| 2016 | — | 96.6% | — | $6,500,000 |
| 2017 | $6,000,000 | 53.7% | $3,222,000 | — |
| 2018 | $6,000,000 | 37.5% | $2,250,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $5,472,000 | $13,000,000 |
| Total | | $18,472,000 |
| Davon House |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.5% | — | $6,500,000 |
| 2016 | $2,500,000 | 93.0% | $2,325,000 | $3,500,000 |
| 2017 | $6,000,000 | 63.1% | $3,786,000 | — |
| 2018 | $6,000,000 | 35.4% | $2,124,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $8,235,000 | $10,000,000 |
| Total | | $18,235,000 |
| Cary Williams |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 96.6% | — | $7,000,000 |
| 2016 | $5,000,000 | 49.0% | $2,450,000 | — |
| 2017 | $6,000,000 | 21.7% | $1,302,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $3,752,000 | $7,000,000 |
| Total | | $10,752,000 |
| Brandon Browner |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.3% | — | $5,000,000 |
| 2016 | $2,250,000 | 67.8% | $1,525,500 | $2,750,000 |
| 2017 | $5,000,000 | 18.3% | $915,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $2,440,500 | $7,750,000 |
| Total | | $10,190,500 |
| Brice McCain |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $1,000,000 | 91.3% | $913,000 | $2,000,000 |
| 2016 | $2,500,000 | 41.2% | $1,030,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $1,943,000 | $2,000,000 |
| Total | | $3,943,000 |
Safeties:
| Devin McCourty |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $500,000 | 99.9% | $499,500 | $17,500,000 |
| 2016 | $500,000 | 98.1% | $490,500 | $4,500,000 |
| 2017 | $7,000,000 | 74.3% | $5,201,000 | — |
| 2018 | $8,000,000 | 42.5% | $3,400,000 | — |
| 2019 | $9,500,000 | 22.5% | $2,137,500 | — |
| Subtotal | | $11,728,500 | $22,000,000 |
| Total | | $33,728,500 |
| Da’Norris Searcy |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.3% | — | $7,000,000 |
| 2016 | $5,000,000 | 83.6% | $4,180,000 | — |
| 2017 | $5,625,000 | 57.3% | $3,223,125 | — |
| 2018 | $6,125,000 | 36.6% | $2,241,750 | — |
| Subtotal | | $9,644,875 | $7,000,000 |
| Total | | $16,644,875 |
| Nate Allen |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $100,000 | 99.0% | $99,000 | $6,900,000 |
| 2016 | $5,000,000 | 78.3% | $3,915,000 | — |
| 2017 | $6,000,000 | 47.5% | $2,850,000 | — |
| 2018 | $5,000,000 | 34.4% | $1,720,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $8,584,000 | $6,900,000 |
| Total | | $15,484,000 |
| Rahim Moore |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $1,000,000 | 98.5% | $985,000 | $4,000,000 |
| 2016 | $3,350,000 | 79.3% | $2,656,550 | — |
| 2017 | $3,650,000 | 52.8% | $1,927,200 | — |
| Subtotal | | $5,568,750 | $4,000,000 |
| Total | | $9,568,750 |
| Antrel Rolle |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $100,000 | 92.2% | $92,200 | $4,900,000 |
| 2016 | $3,000,000 | 42.8% | $1,284,000 | — |
| 2017 | $3,250,000 | 14.4% | $468,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $1,844,200 | $4,900,000 |
| Total | | $6,744,200 |
| Sergio Brown |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $1,500,000 | 94.5% | $1,417,500 | $1,000,000 |
| 2016 | $2,250,000 | 69.9% | $1,572,750 | — |
| 2017 | $2,250,000 | 35.7% | $803,250 | — |
| Subtotal | | $3,793,500 | $1,000,000 |
| Total | | $4,793,500 |
Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”
Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs
Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison
Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting
Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions
Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.
Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.
Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.