Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts (Offense)

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Quarterbacks:

Josh McCown
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201589.2%$5,250,000
2016$3,375,00023.3%$786,375$1,000,000
2017$4,375,0005.8%$253,750
Subtotal$1,040,125$6,250,000
Total$7,290,125
Mark Sanchez
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201597.3%$4,500,000
2016$3,500,00045.5%$1,592,500$1,000,000
Subtotal$1,592,500$5,500,000
Total$7,092,500
Brian Hoyer
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$500,00092.9%$464,500$4,750,000
2016$5,250,00029.4%$1,543,500
Subtotal$2,008,000$4,750,000
Total$6,758,000
Ryan Mallett
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,750,00092.0%$1,610,000$1,750,000
2016$3,500,00041.0%$1,435,000
Subtotal$3,045,000$1,750,000
Total$4,795,000
Shaun Hill
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$50,00076.1%$38,050$3,200,000
2016$3,250,0008.2%$266,500
Subtotal$304,550$3,200,000
Total$3,504,550
Blaine Gabbert
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,500,00088.5%$1,327,500$500,000
2016$2,000,00055.6%$1,112,000
Subtotal$2,439,500$500,000
Total$2,939,500

Running Backs:

DeMarco Murray
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$9,000,000
201698.2%$7,000,000
2017$6,000,00074.7%$4,482,000$2,000,000
2018$8,000,00036.0%$2,880,000
2019$8,000,00025.7%$2,056,000
Subtotal$9,418,000$18,000,000
Total$27,418,000
Mark Ingram
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00099.9%$99,900$4,600,000
2016$1,600,00095.3%$1,524,800$1,500,000
2017$3,600,00066.2%$2,383,200
2018$4,600,00040.2%$1,849,200
Subtotal$5,857,100$6,100,000
Total$11,957,100
Shane Vereen
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00098.7%$98,700$4,750,000
2016$3,750,00074.1%$2,778,750
2017$3,750,00046.8%$1,755,000
Subtotal$4,632,450$4,750,000
Total$9,382,450
Frank Gore
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00096.4%$964,000$3,500,000
2016$1,000,00067.2%$672,000$3,000,000
2017$3,500,00014.3%$500,500
Subtotal$2,136,500$6,500,000
Total$8,636,500
Ryan Matthews
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.4%$4,000,000
2016$2,000,00082.2%$1,644,000$1,000,000
2017$4,000,00035.9%$1,436,000
Subtotal$3,080,000$5,000,000
Total$8,080,000
Jerome Felton
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00098.8%$98,800$3,600,000
2016$1,650,00079.3%$1,308,450
2017$1,850,00046.6%$862,100
2018$2,000,00024.8%$496,000
Subtotal$2,765,350$3,600,000
Total$6,365,350
Justin Forsett
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201597.8%$3,000,000
2016$3,000,00052.3%$1,569,000
2017$3,000,00026.6%$798,000
Subtotal$2,367,000$3,000,000
Total$5,367,000

Wide Receivers:

Jeremy Maclin
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,000100.0%$250,000$12,750,000
2016$250,00097.8%$244,500$9,750,000
2017$10,000,00068.3%$6,830,000
2018$11,000,00040.0%$4,400,000
2019$11,000,00026.5%$2,915,000
Subtotal$14,639,500$22,500,000
Total$37,139,500
Randall Cobb
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,100,00099.6%$2,091,600$13,000,000
2016$5,900,00093.8%$5,534,200
2017$9,500,00068.6%$6,517,000
2018$9,500,00046.1%$4,379,500
Subtotal$18,522,300$13,000,000
Total$31,522,300
Torrey Smith
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,250,00099.5%$1,243,750$8,750,000
2016$6,000,00091.4%$5,484,000
2017$8,000,00070.1%$5,608,000
2018$8,000,00045.5%$3,640,000
2019$8,000,00031.7%$2,536,000
Subtotal$18,511,750$8,750,000
Total$27,261,750
Dwayne Harris
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$25,00099.9%$24,975$4,975,000
2016$875,00096.7%$846,125$2,125,000
2017$3,000,00070.5%$2,115,000
2018$3,250,00042.4%$1,378,000
2019$3,250,00028.1%$913,250
Subtotal$5,277,350$7,100,000
Total$12,377,350
Andre Johnson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201592.9%$7,500,000
2016$2,500,00037.6%$940,000$2,500,000
2017$6,000,0009.2%$552,000
Subtotal$1,492,000$10,000,000
Total$11,492,000
Eddie Royal
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.1%$5,500,000
201686.9%$4,500,000
2017$5,000,00024.3%$1,215,000
Subtotal$1,215,000$10,000,000
Total$11,215,000
Brian Hartline
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201595.8%$3,000,000
2016$3,000,00037.9%
Subtotal$1,137,000$3,000,000
Total$4,137,000
Ted Ginn
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00084.5%$845,000$1,700,000
2016$1,500,00034.6%$519,000
Subtotal$1,364,000$1,700,000
Total$3,064,000
Jacoby Jones
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$900,00082.0%$738,000$1,600,000
2016$3,000,00020.7%$621,000
Subtotal$1,359,000$1,600,000
Total$2,959,000

Tight Ends:

Julius Thomas
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00099.6%$99,600$15,000,000
2016$100,00097.0%$97,000$6,000,000
2017$7,100,00065.6%$4,657,600
2018$8,600,00037.9%$3,259,400
2019$9,100,00026.0%$2,366,000
Subtotal$10,479,600$21,000,000
Total$31,479,600
Lance Kendricks
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201598.9%$5,500,000
2016$3,250,00086.5%$2,811,250$1,250,000
2017$4,250,00058.3%$2,477,750
2018$4,250,00030.9%$1,313,250
Subtotal$6,602,250$6,750,000
Total$13,352,250
Owen Daniels
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,750,00086.0%$1,505,000$3,000,000
2016$3,500,00038.0%$1,330,000
2017$4,000,00014.7%$588,000
Subtotal$3,423,000$3,000,000
Total$6,423,000
Lee Smith
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00097.6%$244,000$3,100,000
2016$2,750,00071.5%$1,966,250
2017$3,250,00034.1%$1,108,250
Subtotal$3,318,500$3,100,000
Total$6,418,500
Virgil Green
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201598.3%$3,200,000
2016$2,400,00066.2%$1,588,800
2017$2,800,00037.2%$1,041,600
Subtotal$2,630,400$3,200,000
Total$5,830,500
Ed Dickson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$850,00095.9%$815,150$2,000,000
2016$1,900,00065.7%$1,248,300
2017$2,050,00034.7%$711,350
Subtotal$2,774,800$2,000,000
Total$4,774,800
Niles Paul
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00098.3%$245,750$2,250,000
2016$1,500,00073.7%$1,105,500
2017$2,000,00043.3%$866,000
Subtotal$2,217,250$2,250,000
Total$4,467,250

Offensive Tackles:

Bryan Bulaga
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,000,00099.3%$1,986,000$8,000,000
2016$4,000,00094.4%$3,776,000
2017$6,250,00074.3%$4,643,750
2018$6,750,00047.1%$3,179,250
2019$6,750,00032.0%$2,160,000
Subtotal$15,745,000$8,000,000
Total$23,745,000
Jeremy Parnell
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.5%$8,000,000
201694.4%$6,500,000
2017$6,500,00056.5%$3,672,500
2018$5,000,00038.1%$1,905,000
2019$6,000,00016.9%$1,014,000
Subtotal$6,591,500$14,500,000
Total$21,091,500
Derek Newton
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.7%$7,500,000
2016$2,250,00093.4%$2,101,500$2,500,000
2017$4,750,00067.9%$3,225,250
2018$4,750,00044.8%$2,128,000
2019$4,750,00032.6%$1,548,500
Subtotal$9,003,250$10,000,000
Total$19,003,250
King Dunlap
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$500,00098.5%$492,500$8,500,000
2016$5,000,00077.5%$3,875,000
2017$6,750,00039.6%$2,673,000
2018$7,250,00021.3%$1,544,250
Subtotal$8,584,750$8,500,000
Total$17,084,750
Doug Free
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201596.9%$6,000,000
2016$4,000,00048.4%$1,936,000
2017$5,000,00018.2%$910,000
Subtotal$2,846,000$6,000,000
Total$8,846,000
Joe Reitz
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,750,00088.9%$1,555,750$1,500,000
2016$2,250,00054.6%$1,228,500
2017$2,500,00020.9%$522,500
Subtotal$3,306,750$1,500,000
Total$4,806,750
Michael Oher
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,250,00089.0%$1,112,500$2,500,000
2016$3,250,00034.6%$1,124,500
Subtotal$2,237,000$2,500,000
Total$4,737,000

Interior Lineman:

Rodney Hudson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$400,00098.8%$395,200$12,600,000
2016$7,700,00089.4%$6,883,800
2017$6,850,00077.9%$5,336,150
2018$8,350,00053.5%$4,467,250
2019$8,600,00030.0%$2,580,000
Subtotal$19,662,400$12,600,000
Total$32,262,400
Orlando Franklin
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$10,000,000
201697.2%$5,500,000
2017$6,000,00062.9%$3,774,000
2018$6,750,00034.4%$2,322,000
2019$7,250,00021.3%$1,544,250
Subtotal$7,640,250$15,500,000
Total$23,140,250
Clint Boling
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,100,00098.2%$2,062,200$5,000,000
2016$4,250,00084.9%$3,608,250
2017$4,450,00066.2%$2,945,900
2018$4,950,00041.9%$2,074,050
2019$5,250,00030.4%$1,596,000
Subtotal$12,286,400$5,000,000
Total$17,286,400
James Carpenter
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.1%$5,000,000
2016$4,700,00077.8%$3,656,600
2017$4,700,00053.5%$2,514,500
2018$4,700,00037.1%$1,743,700
Subtotal$7,914,800$5,000,000
Total$12,914,800

Specialists:

Brett Kern
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.5%$4,000,000
2016$1,200,00091.2%$1,094,400$1,000,000
2017$2,800,00051.4%$1,439,200
2018$3,000,00026.7%$801,000
2019$3,000,00017.4%$522,000
Subtotal$3,856,600$5,000,000
Total$8,856,600
Matt Prater
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,250,00079.5%$993,750$750,000
2016$2,500,00035.2%$880,000
2017$3,700,00012.7%$469,900
Subtotal$2,343,650$750,000
Total$3,093,650

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

  • McGeorge

    1. Have you done an analysis of Jimmy Graham, if so where?
    2. I could see Mark Sanchez sticking around in Philly for a while if the starting QB is injury prone.