Categories: Uncategorized

Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Tight Ends

Player	Nominal Value	ECV	% Expected	ECV/Year
Charles Clay	$38,000,000	$32,951,000	87%	$6,590,200
Julius Thomas	$46,000,000	$31,479,600	68%	$6,295,920
Lance Kendricks	$18,500,000	$13,352,250	72%	$3,338,063
Jordan Cameron	$15,000,000	$10,652,500	71%	$5,326,250
Owen Daniels	$12,250,000	$6,423,000	52%	$2,141,000
Lee Smith	$9,350,000	$6,418,500	69%	$2,139,500
Virgil Green	$8,400,000	$5,830,500	69%	$1,943,500
Ed Dickson	$6,800,000	$4,774,800	70%	$1,591,600
Niles Paul	$6,000,000	$4,467,250	74%	$1,489,083
Scott Chandler	$5,300,000	$3,724,450	70%	$1,862,225
Anthony Fasano	$5,250,000	$2,772,750	53%	$1,386,375
TE Total:			71.9%
Global Total (122 Free Agents):			67.5%

Player	First Likely Cut Year	Dead Money Remaining
Charles Clay	2019 (43%)*	$2,000,000**
Julius Thomas	2018 (38%)	$2,400,000
Lance Kendricks	2018 (31%)	$0
Jordan Cameron	2016 (44%)	$2,000,000
Owen Daniels	2016 (38%)	$2,000,000
Lee Smith	2017 (34%)	$0
Virgil Green	2017 (37%)	$500,000
Ed Dickson	2017 (35%)	$666,667
Niles Paul	2017 (43%)	$333,333
Scott Chandler	2016 (33%)	$1,000,000
Anthony Fasano	2016 (22%)	$562,500

*Refers to the likelihood that the player will remain under contract in the given season. This column displays the first season where the likelihood falls below 50%.

**Refers to the amount of dead money that the team will incur upon releasing the player in the season identified in the second column.

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.