Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Wide Receivers

Quarterbacks:

Running Backs:

PlayerNominal ValueECV% ExpectedECV/Year
Jeremy Maclin$55,000,000$37,139,50068%$7,427,900
Randall Cobb$40,000,000$31,522,30079%$7,880,575
Torrey Smith$40,000,000$27,261,75068%$5,452,350
Dwayne Harris$17,500,000$12,377,35071%$2,475,470
Andre Johnson$18,500,000$11,492,00062%$3,830,667
Eddie Royal$15,000,000$11,215,00075%$3,783,333
Dwayne Bowe$12,500,000$10,504,90084%$5,252,450
Stevie Johnson$10,500,000$6,777,88065%$2,259,293
Kenny Britt$9,150,000$6,502,50071%$3,251,250
Harry Douglas$11,250,000$6,221,25055%$2,073,750
Cecil Shorts$6,000,000$4,275,00071%$2,137,500
Brian Hartline$6,000,000$4,137,00069%$2,068,500
Ted Ginn$4,200,000$3,064,00073%$1,532,000
Jacoby Jones$5,500,000$2,959,00054%$1,479,500
WR Total:69.9%
Global Total (122 Free Agents):67.5%
Notable One-Year Contracts:
Percy Harvin:   $6,000,000 ($5,900,000 guaranteed)
 
PlayerFirst Likely Cut YearDead Money Remaining
Jeremy Maclin2018 (40%)*$4,800,000**
Randall Cobb2018 (46%)$3,250,000
Torrey Smith2018 (46%)$3,200,000
Dwayne Harris2018 (42%)$1,600,000
Andre Johnson2016 (38%)$2,500,000
Eddie Royal2017 (24%)$0
Dwayne Bowe2016 (41%)$4,600,000
Stevie Johnson2017 (27%)$1,000,000
Kenny Britt2016 (46%)$0
Harry Douglas2016 (44%)$1,466,667
Cecil Shorts2016 (43%)$500,000
Brian Hartline2016 (38%)$750,000
Ted Ginn2016 (35%)$850,000
Jacoby Jones2016 (21%)$800,000
 

*Refers to the likelihood that the player will remain under contract in the given season.  This column displays the first season where the likelihood falls below 50%.

**Refers to the amount of dead money that the team will incur upon releasing the player in the season identified in the second column.

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

  • BillyMo

    Wouldn’t it be better to divide the ECV by expected contract length instead of actual contract length?