Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Tight Ends


Running Backs

Wide Receivers

PlayerNominal ValueECV% ExpectedECV/Year
Charles Clay$38,000,000$32,951,00087%$6,590,200
Julius Thomas$46,000,000$31,479,60068%$6,295,920
Lance Kendricks$18,500,000$13,352,25072%$3,338,063
Jordan Cameron$15,000,000$10,652,50071%$5,326,250
Owen Daniels$12,250,000$6,423,00052%$2,141,000
Lee Smith$9,350,000$6,418,50069%$2,139,500
Virgil Green$8,400,000$5,830,50069%$1,943,500
Ed Dickson$6,800,000$4,774,80070%$1,591,600
Niles Paul$6,000,000$4,467,25074%$1,489,083
Scott Chandler$5,300,000$3,724,45070%$1,862,225
Anthony Fasano$5,250,000$2,772,75053%$1,386,375
TE Total:71.9%
Global Total (122 Free Agents):67.5%
PlayerFirst Likely Cut YearDead Money Remaining
Charles Clay2019 (43%)*$2,000,000**
Julius Thomas2018 (38%)$2,400,000
Lance Kendricks2018 (31%)$0
Jordan Cameron2016 (44%)$2,000,000
Owen Daniels2016 (38%)$2,000,000
Lee Smith2017 (34%)$0
Virgil Green2017 (37%)$500,000
Ed Dickson2017 (35%)$666,667
Niles Paul2017 (43%)$333,333
Scott Chandler2016 (33%)$1,000,000
Anthony Fasano2016 (22%)$562,500

*Refers to the likelihood that the player will remain under contract in the given season.  This column displays the first season where the likelihood falls below 50%.

**Refers to the amount of dead money that the team will incur upon releasing the player in the season identified in the second column.

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.