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2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC North

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season. Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy. ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team. I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up. I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision. As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more. First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low. At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot. Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website. As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Green Bay Packers:

Player	Expected Outcome	Cut?	Correct?
Aaron Rodgers	97.3%	NO
Jordy Nelson	97.3%	NO
Datone Jones	96.2%	NO
Morgan Burnett	93.0%	NO
Sam Shields	91.8%	NO
Clay Matthews	89.6%	NO
Nick Perry	71.0%	NO
TJ Lang	65.5%	NO
Josh Sitton	58.1%	NO
Mike Neal	51.5%	NO
Brad Jones	38.5%	YES
AJ Hawk	28.3%	YES
Julius Peppers	22.9%	YES
Mason Crosby	22.8%	YES

Detroit Lions:

Player	Expected Outcome	Cut?	Correct?
Eric Ebron	99.9%	NO
Matt Stafford	98.4%	NO
Ezekial Ansah	97.9%	NO
Golden Tate	96.5%	NO
Calvin Johnson	89.7%	NO
Glover Quin	78.7%	NO
Brandon Pettigrew	78.0%	NO
Riley Reiff	68.8%	NO
Joique Bell	67.6%	NO
Reggie Bush	57.2%	NO
Stephen Tulloch	45.0%	YES
DeAndre Levy	42.7%	YES
Jason Jones	38.2%	YES
James Ihedigbo	26.0%	YES

Chicago Bears:

Player	Expected Outcome	Cut?	Correct?
Kyle Fuller	99.9%	NO
Kyle Long	96.7%	NO
Jay Cutler	94.2%	NO
Tim Jennings	91.1%	NO
Lamarr Houston	83.9%	NO
Jared Allen	83.7%	NO
Brandon Marshall	78.2%	NO
Shea McClellin	76.8%	NO
Matt Slauson	70.1%	NO
Jermon Bushrod	65.9%	NO
Willie Young	62.8%	NO
Martellus Bennett	57.7%	NO
Robbie Gould	51.0%	NO
Matt Forte	34.9%	YES

Minnesota Vikings:

Player	Expected Outcome	Cut?	Correct?
Anthony Barr	99.9%	NO
Kyle Rudolph	99.8%	NO
Linval Joseph	98.0%	NO
Everson Griffen	97.9%	NO
Sharrif Floyd	97.0%	NO
Xavier Rhodes	96.2%	NO
Brandon Fusco	96.1%	NO
Matt Kalil	84.6%	NO
Harrison Smith	65.1%	NO
Captain Munnerlyn	62.8%	NO
Adrian Peterson	62.0%	NO
Phil Loadholt	59.3%	NO
Brian Robison	58.0%	NO
Greg Jennings	53.7%	NO
John Sullivan	49.2%	YES
Matt Cassel	48.7%	YES
Jerome Felton	35.0%	YES
Charlie Johnson	24.3%	YES
Chad Greenway	20.0%	YES

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.