For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this post. To briefly sum up the key methodologies used specifically for 2015, this is what that projection will use:
With all these usages, please understand that this projection will almost certainly not be 100% accurate. I expect to have several picks out of exact order (especially in the later rounds) due to not placing much weight on playing time, and I will likely be wrong on the qualifications of some players (though I will explain some possible altering scenarios if I am wrong on some relevant players). My goal is to give a general understanding as to what picks will likely be awarded to certain teams.
If you have questions or see any possible errors, do not hesitate to provide feedback—either by commenting directly on this post, or by using the contact form on the calculator page.
With the above in place, here is my current projection for the 2015 compensatory picks (the programmed version can be found here):
Team | Round | Compensated Free Agent | Avg./Year |
NE | 3 | Aqib Talib | $9,500,000 |
KC | 3 | Branden Albert | $9,400,000 |
CIN | 3 | Michael Johnson | $8,750,000 |
SF | 4 | Donte Whitner | $7,000,000 |
BAL | 4 | Arthur Jones | $6,600,000 |
SEA | 4 | Golden Tate | $6,200,000 |
DEN | 4 | Zane Beadles | $6,000,000 |
SEA | 5 | Brandon Browner | $5,050,000 |
BAL | 5 | Michael Oher | $5,000,000 |
KC | 5 | Tyson Jackson | $5,000,000 |
SEA | 5 | Breno Giacomini | $4,500,000 |
KC | 5 | Jon Asamoah | $4,500,000 |
HOU | 5 | Antonio Smith | $4,500,000 |
BAL | 6 | Corey Graham | $4,075,000 |
HOU | 6 | Earl Mitchell | $4,000,000 |
PIT | 6 | Ziggy Hood | $4,000,000 |
GB | 6 | Evan Dietrich-Smith | $3,562,500 |
GB | 6 | James Jones | $3,333,333 |
STL | 6 | Chris Williams | $3,287,500 |
HOU | 6 | Ben Tate | $3,100,000 |
SEA | 6 | Clinton McDonald | $3,000,000 |
HOU | 6 | Joe Mays | $3,000,000 |
DEN | 6 | Knowshon Moreno | $3,000,000 |
DEN | 6 | Shaun Phillips | $2,500,000 |
DEN | 7 | Robert Ayers | $1,875,000 |
NE | 7 | Dane Fletcher | $1,200,000 |
IND | 7 | Jeff Linkenbach | $900,000 |
GB | 7 | Marshall Newhouse | $805,000 |
KC | 7 | Kendrick Lewis | $795,000 |
ARI | 7 | Antoine Cason | $795,000 |
BAL | 7 | Ed Dickson | $795,000 |
NO | 7 | Charles Brown | $795,000 |
Compensation over 32-pick limit; not awarded | |||
GB | 7 | CJ Wilson | $795,000 |
DAL | 7 | Danny McCray | $795,000 |
ARI | 7 | Javier Arenas | $795,000 |
IND | 7 | Cassius Vaughn | $730,000 |
As you can see, there are actually 39 picks listed here, but because only a maximum of 32 compensatory picks can be awarded, the extra picks are disregarded. For this same reason, I project that no “non-compensatory picks” will be needed (which essentially fill out what would be an eighth round if there were fewer than 32 compensatory picks awarded).
As mentioned above, there is a good chance that I am too generous with the number of players I have projected as qualifying for the compensatory pick formula. At the same time, there are a few players that I have disqualified based on more well known factors that also deserve an explanation.
First, as AdamJT13 laid out, players may lose their qualification for the formula if they “have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10)”. Clearly, players that were cut before the season even started (a few examples being Tiquan Underwood, Domenik Hixon, Jordan Senn, and Israel Idonije) have not been counted in this projection.
Second, as mentioned above, I am otherwise qualifying all other players that signed for an APY of at least $730,000, representing the veteran minimum for a player with four accrued seasons of experience. However, there is a good chance that several players in the $730,000 to $850,000 APY range may not qualify, either due a stricter minimum APY threshold, or due to a lack of sufficient playing time. The following is a list of players that would alter this projection if they don’t qualify:
As far as in-season cuts go, because the day after Week 10 in 2014 was November 11, I am not counting Clifton Geathers (Indianapolis to Washington, cut on November 1); though, even if he did qualify it would not impact either team. However, I am counting Ben Tate (Houston to Cleveland, cut November 18), LeGarrette Blount (New England to Pittsburgh, cut November 18), and Antoine Cason (Arizona to Carolina, cut December 2).
One curious case this year could be Jonathan Dwyer, going from Pittsburgh to Arizona. Dwyer signed a $795,000 contract that qualified for the minimum salary benefit. Dwyer played in the first two weeks before being placed on the Non-Football Injury list arising from an accusation of domestic violence. I’ve yet to find a similar example in the past, but since his season ended so soon and his salary is below the $800,000 threshold I will mark him as a non-qualifying player. However, if he does qualify (in conjunction with other players not qualifying), it could impact both Pittsburgh and Arizona.
Most of the questions center around whether players will qualify at all for the formula. There are also smaller questions regarding which round certain players may be valued as, and it is likely I will be off on some of them. The main serious question mark that I see right now focuses on TJ Ward, going from Cleveland to Denver for an APY of $5.625 million. Since the projected cutoff between the fourth and fifth round is around $5.7 million, it would suggest that Ward would barely count as a 5th rounder against Denver. However, since Ward was named to the Pro Bowl it appears likely that he will end up as a 4th anyway due to the postseason honors boost. The reason this matters for Denver is because if Ward is a 5th instead of a 4th, he will cancel out a lower-valued player and give the Broncos a higher pick (explained below).
Finally, keep in mind that the closer the players are to the end of the 7th round, the more likely it is that those picks may not be awarded. This is due to the player(s) not qualifying, or the pick being pushed below the 32-pick limit. Therefore, compensatory picks for those players should be considered to be very much on the bubble, even if they would otherwise be eligible for compensation according to the basis of the formula.
Here is a team-by team breakdown of the free agents gained and lost for the 16 teams I project to have a net loss of qualifying free agents, including Dallas, even though they will not actually earn a compensatory pick due to being below the 32-pick limit. (You will see a similar breakdown in the NFL’s official release come March; see the 2014 press release as an example.)
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