NFL Draft

Revisiting the 2013 NFL Draft

I thought for the draft this year I would do a series looking back at each draft from 2012 through 2017 and seeing what information we can get by breaking each draft down based mainly on career earnings. In the first post of the series I went back and looked at the 2012 draft. Today I’ll look at what has been regarded as one of the worst recent drafts, 2013. For each draft we will break things down by position and the round in which the players were drafted.

Career Length

For a players career length we are looking at how many times the player finished an NFL season on a roster, practice squad included. Here is the breakdown by round.

Draft RoundYears in NFLYears with 1 team
Top 107.55.1
17.65.1
27.54.2
36.74.5
45.33.2
55.12.9
65.22.7
73.81.6

This wound up being very consistent in terms of career length with the top two rounds being nearly identical and the 3rd round not being that far behind. For the teams that drafted the players it was basically a disaster. The average length of time for a 1st rounder was just 5.1 years, which is basically the length of the rookie contract. The other rounds had similar results to 2012. Five players from this draft lasted for a decade with the team who drafted them.

Performance by Original Draft Round

We re-ranked every player based on how much they earned over their initial four year rookie contract. Here was the breakdown for the 2013 draft based on the initial draft position, the average result, and what percentage finished in the top 100.

RoundAvg Redraft RankTop 10Top 32Top 64Top 100
Top 1083.410.0%30.0%40.0%70.0%
165.84.5%27.3%63.6%72.7%
275.46.7%26.7%46.7%73.3%
397.511.4%17.1%37.1%57.1%
4138.62.8%11.1%19.4%30.6%
5141.40.0%8.6%14.3%31.4%
6152.72.6%2.6%15.8%23.7%
7181.00.0%2.1%2.1%8.3%

These results were pretty interesting with the first and 2nd round basically producing very similar quality players while the third round still did a solid job overall at producing talent that deserved to be picked in the top half of the draft. Round four and five also were pretty consistent followed by round 6 with a big dropoff once you get to round 7.

If we just look at overperforming or underperforming their initial round of selection we get the following hit rates.

RoundOverperformedUnderperformedHit Target
Top 1090.0%10.0%
14.5%72.7%22.7%
226.7%53.3%20.0%
337.1%42.9%20.0%
430.6%52.8%16.7%
540.0%42.9%17.1%
655.3%34.2%10.5%
760.4%39.6%

These results fall in line with the idea that the 2013 draft was very weak on the top and just filled with players who were more likely to fit 2nd round profiles rather than true top picks.

Performance by Position

Here is the breakdown for each position and where they ranked in earnings over rookie contract.

PositionDraftedTop 10Top 32Top 64Top 100
LT1225.0%33.3%33.3%41.7%
C812.5%25.0%37.5%50.0%
CB273.7%22.2%25.9%44.4%
RT50.0%20.0%20.0%80.0%
IDL240.0%16.7%20.8%50.0%
WR287.1%14.3%25.0%32.1%
TE1612.5%12.5%43.8%56.3%
EDGE300.0%10.0%16.7%26.7%
QB110.0%9.1%18.2%27.3%
S254.0%8.0%32.0%44.0%
OG160.0%6.3%25.0%37.5%
RB230.0%4.3%17.4%30.4%
LB220.0%0.0%18.2%31.8%
P20.0%0.0%50.0%50.0%
K20.0%0.0%50.0%50.0%

This was a good year if you were an offensive tackle or center. Corners also did well and the interior defensive lie was respectable. Linebacker and running back were both duds as were edge and QB.

What if we just limit this to the hit rates of players taken in the top 100 ?

PositionDraftedTop 10Top 32Top 64Top 100
LT450.0%75.0%75.0%100.0%
IDL120.0%33.3%41.7%75.0%
CB156.7%33.3%40.0%60.0%
TE633.3%33.3%83.3%83.3%
WR1118.2%27.3%54.5%72.7%
QB40.0%25.0%50.0%75.0%
EDGE110.0%18.2%18.2%36.4%
RB60.0%16.7%33.3%50.0%
OG80.0%12.5%50.0%62.5%
S1010.0%10.0%70.0%90.0%
LB90.0%0.0%22.2%55.6%
RT30.0%0.0%0.0%66.7%
C10.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%

While there were only four left tackles taken, the scouts seemed to get it right with two landing in the top 10, three in the top 32 and all four in the top 100 players selected. Tight end had a very high hit rate as did the interior d-line, corner, and wide receiver. Edge was a terrible projection with only 36% of the players selected top 100 actually finishing top 100.

Who Had the Best and Worst Drafts

The Eagles and Packers are still in a race for top draft with the Eagles ranking being powered by Lane Johnson and the Packers by David Bakhtiari. The Eagles were the only team with two top 10 players as tight end Zach Ertz also made the top 10 in career earnings outside of his rookie contract. The other teams that had a solid draft were the Ravens, Lions, Saints, and Texans.

The Colts were the worst of the teams with their players not even hitting the original contract numbers. This was the Bjoern Werner draft at the top for them and they also got nothing out of their late round selections. Seattle, who was great the year before, was anything but in 2013. The Browns and Titans also did not reach $10 million in value.

TeamPicksNet Earnings
Eagles8$220,543,442
Packers11$219,634,486
Ravens10$199,982,856
Lions9$187,750,867
Saints5$157,442,406
Texans9$154,331,556
Chiefs8$135,633,095
Panthers5$134,412,020
Cardinals9$121,267,001
Bills8$121,220,786
Patriots7$120,814,147
Chargers6$118,893,842
Jets7$115,715,835
Falcons8$107,156,908
Bengals10$88,182,065
Vikings9$84,233,885
Steelers9$79,563,708
Buccaneers6$73,710,644
Rams7$69,584,912
Giants7$68,856,080
Raiders10$66,413,452
49ers11$53,100,910
Cowboys7$52,634,417
Bears6$52,427,051
Commanders7$48,294,166
Dolphins9$29,346,532
Jaguars8$18,329,368
Broncos7$14,618,602
Titans8$8,543,498
Browns5$7,448,337
Seahawks11$3,158,969
Colts7($5,976,727)

The Final Draft Rankings

When re-assessing the draft here is where the average pick came from in each final draft tier.

RoundAvg. Draft Slot
Top 1069.7
174.0
281.7
396.9
4137.2
5132.9
6161.1
7177.8

Our new top 10 consists of three left tackles, two wide receivers, two tight ends, a cornerback, a safety, and a center. The only top 10 pick to actually finish in the top 10 was Lane Johnson. The only other first rounder to finish top 10 was DeAndre Hopkins.

Here are the top 100 players ranked by career earnings over their rookie contract.

RankNamePositionEarningsOriginal Draft SlotChange in Draft SlotYears PlayedYears With Draft Team
1DeAndre HopkinsWR1.26E+082726117
2David BakhtiariLT1.2E+081091071111
3Keenan AllenWR1.07E+0876731111
4Terron ArmsteadLT988007067571119
5Lane JohnsonLT958208364-11111
6Darius SlayCB931187503630117
7Tyrann MathieuS878043536962115
8Travis KelceTE7522816263551111
9Ryan JensenC69707735203194115
10Zach ErtzTE663770593525118
11Kawann ShortIDL66000000443388
12Robert WoodsWR657500384129114
13Eric FisherLT605796391-12108
14Desmond TrufantCB5620655622897
15Logan RyanCB544460008368104
16Micah HydeS51350044159143114
17Xavier RhodesCB51228300258107
18Jamie CollinsEDGE501921775234106
19Brandon WilliamsIDL494209009475109
20Justin PughOG4482100019-1105
21Sheldon RichardsonIDL4369217613-894
22J.C. TretterC4205000012210094
23Jordan PoyerCB41682353218195110
24Le’Veon BellRB40688285482496
25Ezekiel AnsahEDGE403270005-2086
26Geno SmithQB399950003913114
27Star LotuleleiIDL3865700014-1395
28Ricky WagnerRT3724600016814084
29Robert AlfordCB36834444603196
30Kyle JuszczykFB35326471130100114
31Kenny StillsWR3394155514411393
32William GholstonEDGE32996000126941010
33Travis FrederickC3282100031-277
34Alec OgletreeLB3270305930-485
35Cordarrelle PattersonWR3200000029-6114
36Jordan ReedTE30605545854987
37Kyle LongOG3042100020-1787
38Tavon AustinWR287115228-3095
39A.J. KleinLB28671111148109104
40Larry WarfordOG27163000652574
41Johnathan HankinsIDL26520503498104
42Brian WintersOG26456750723087
43Mike GlennonQB263830667330104
44Vance McDonaldTE24753125551184
45Giovani BernardRB2413500037-8108
46D.J. HaydenCB2311744412-3494
47Shawn WilliamsS21113862843798
48Duron HarmonS209750009143107
49Kiko AlonsoLB2067500046-372
50Vince WilliamsLB2010000020615688
51Kenny VaccaroS1966580915-3685
52Tyler EifertTE1820387521-3187
53Sam MartinP18087500165112117
54Latavius MurrayRB17975333181127104
55Alex OkaforEDGE177783961034894
56Dustin HopkinsK17138356177121111
57Marquise GoodwinWR169062507821104
58Eric ReidS1656600018-4075
59Ryan GriffinTE16199249201142106
60Rex BurkheadRB15868015190130104
61D.J. SwearingerS1540867857-492
62Johnathan CyprienS1356794033-2974
63Dion SimsTE129960001064364
64John SimonEDGE129227631296591
65Levine ToiloloTE127410001336895
66David AmersonCB1257017151-1562
67Sylvester WilliamsIDL1240694028-3985
68Theo RiddickRB1184919419913186
69Margus HuntEDGE1176620853-1695
70T.J. McDonaldS1174096371164
71Menelik WatsonRT1146875042-2954
72Bennie LoganIDL1141160067-564
73Barkevious MingoEDGE110625006-6783
74Stacy McGeeIDL1077505920513184
75Chris ThompsonRB106626261547987
76Jon BosticLB1047300050-26102
77Akeem SpenceIDL1010916410023104
78Terrance WilliamsWR983585374-466
79Nicholas WilliamsIDL958712922314491
80Jamar TaylorCB902272054-2683
81D.J. FlukerRT868700011-7084
82Jordan MillsRT86030941638192
83Matt BarkleyQB84705669815112
84Kevin MinterLB809970645-3994
85Luke JoeckelLT80000002-8354
86Markus WheatonWR785600079-754
87Luke WillsonTE77343251587198
88Marcus CooperCB765089625216460
89John JenkinsIDL671235982-7113
90Oday AboushiOG655766214151102
91J.J. WilcoxS618606680-1174
92Jonathan CooperOG57417657-8563
93Kayvon WebsterCB559470690-374
94Quinton DialIDL54607071576354
95Manti Te’oLB532141238-5784
96Eric KushC51078941707482
97B.W. WebbCB50658511141761
98Kemal IshmaelS489100024314577
99Steven MeansEDGE431254314748101
100Eddie LacyRB425000061-3954
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Jason Fitzgerald

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