Categories: Uncategorized

Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Pass Rushers

Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs

Wide Receivers  |  Tight Ends

Offensive Lineman

Player Nominal Value ECV % Expected ECV/Year
Jerry Hughes $45,000,000 $33,972,600 75% $6,794,520
Pernell McPhee $38,750,000 $24,321,650 63% $4,864,330
Derrick Morgan $27,000,000 $19,205,500 71% $4,801,375
Brandon Graham $26,000,000 $18,135,000 70% $4,533,750
Brian Orakpo $31,000,000 $17,570,250 57% $4,392,562
Brooks Reed $22,500,000 $14,960,200 66% $2,992,040
Michael Johnson $20,000,000 $12,997,000 65% $3,249,250
Bruce Carter $17,000,000 $11,309,250 67% $2,827,312
Trent Cole $14,000,000 $8,931,250 64% $4,465,625
Jabaal Sheard $11,000,000 $8,666,000 79% $4,333,000
Arthur Moats $7,500,000 $5,267,350 70% $1,755,783
Pass Rusher Total: 67.5%
Global Total (122 Free Agents): 67.5%
Notable One-Year Contracts:
Greg Hardy:   $11,311,600 ($0 guaranteed)
Adrian Clayborn:   $3,000,000 ($750,000 guaranteed)
 
Player First Likely Cut Year Dead Money Remaining
Jerry Hughes 2018 (48%)* $5,800,000**
Pernell McPhee 2018 (40%) $1,000,000
Derrick Morgan 2018 (37%) $1,500,000
Brandon Graham 2017 (48%) $2,000,000
Brian Orakpo 2017 (36%) $2,500,000
Brooks Reed 2018 (40%) $1,880,000
Michael Johnson 2018 (27%) $1,125,000
Bruce Carter 2018 (29%) $0
Trent Cole 2016 (19%) $1,000,000
Jabaal Sheard
Arthur Moats 2017 (41%) $633,333
 

*Refers to the likelihood that the player will remain under contract in the given season.  This column displays the first season where the likelihood falls below 50%.

**Refers to the amount of dead money that the team will incur upon releasing the player in the season identified in the second column.

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

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