Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Pass Rushers

Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs

Wide Receivers  |  Tight Ends

Offensive Lineman

PlayerNominal ValueECV% ExpectedECV/Year
Jerry Hughes$45,000,000$33,972,60075%$6,794,520
Pernell McPhee$38,750,000$24,321,65063%$4,864,330
Derrick Morgan$27,000,000$19,205,50071%$4,801,375
Brandon Graham$26,000,000$18,135,00070%$4,533,750
Brian Orakpo$31,000,000$17,570,25057%$4,392,562
Brooks Reed$22,500,000$14,960,20066%$2,992,040
Michael Johnson$20,000,000$12,997,00065%$3,249,250
Bruce Carter$17,000,000$11,309,25067%$2,827,312
Trent Cole$14,000,000$8,931,25064%$4,465,625
Jabaal Sheard$11,000,000$8,666,00079%$4,333,000
Arthur Moats$7,500,000$5,267,35070%$1,755,783
Pass Rusher Total:67.5%
Global Total (122 Free Agents):67.5%
Notable One-Year Contracts:
Greg Hardy:   $11,311,600 ($0 guaranteed)
Adrian Clayborn:   $3,000,000 ($750,000 guaranteed)
PlayerFirst Likely Cut YearDead Money Remaining
Jerry Hughes2018 (48%)*$5,800,000**
Pernell McPhee2018 (40%)$1,000,000
Derrick Morgan2018 (37%)$1,500,000
Brandon Graham2017 (48%)$2,000,000
Brian Orakpo2017 (36%)$2,500,000
Brooks Reed2018 (40%)$1,880,000
Michael Johnson2018 (27%)$1,125,000
Bruce Carter2018 (29%)$0
Trent Cole2016 (19%)$1,000,000
Jabaal Sheard
Arthur Moats2017 (41%)$633,333

*Refers to the likelihood that the player will remain under contract in the given season.  This column displays the first season where the likelihood falls below 50%.

**Refers to the amount of dead money that the team will incur upon releasing the player in the season identified in the second column.

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.