The WR Dominator Index: Evans and Green Lead the Way

I was talking with a friend of mine the other day about receivers and potential salaries in free agency which reminded me of my dominator index for receivers. For those who don’t remember the dominator index, basically it’s a measure of how much of the offense a receiver accounts for. We break down each receiver into four categories- targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns – to see just what they mean to the team. Summing the categories we come up with the dominator index, which maybe would also be useful for some fantasy fanatics. So let’s see how things stack up after 8 weeks.


At the top of the list is Mike Evans which is not really a bit surprise. Vincent Jackson is injured and the team’s skill spots leave a lot to be desired. Evans leads the league in percentage of team targets and is 2nd in yards and 3rd in touchdowns. Im not sure when the extension is coming but Evans should make a lot of money when it comes. He is a vital part of the offense.

I was shocked to see how high Larry Fitzgerald and especially Mike Wallace rank in this list. In some ways it speaks to their touchdown ability but it also speaks to the inadequacy of their rosters. The Ravens simply have nobody and the Cardinals receivers, specifically Michael Floyd, haven’t fired. I never thought I would say that Fitzgerald would justify the Cardinals contract decision but he has.

Odell Beckham rounds out the top 5 and obviously he is helped by his last game but for those who think this is a down year his rank so far would indicate its not. The Giants offense and Elis play has not been great, but he is still the top player even if the overall numbers have not been where people expect.

Jeremy Kerley who ranks 10th is probably the value signing of the season. Like Wallace his ranking has a lot to do with the lack of talent on his team, but San Francisco probably could not have asked for more from a player who was likely going to be cut from the Lions.

Terrell Pryor is the lone bright spot on an abysmal team and will have a very interesting free agency period. Many teams passed on him and the question will be if they see him differently or just look at him as a producer on a bad team.  He ranks 12th overall Sanders and Beasley are bringing value to their teams and should make teams start thinking more about the high pricing of the number 1.

DeAndre Hopkins still ranks in the top 15 but this is clearly a down year for him. Brock Osweiler is terrible but Hopkins has played with terrible QBs before and been able to put up big numbers so there is something off here. Will it impact his contract dreams this offseason? We will need to wait and see.

Jets fans should be happy to see Quincy Enunwa making such an impact in the offense. There was a lot of worry about what would happen when Eric Decker was injured, but he has filled in nicely.  I would not be surprised if he makes Decker expendable, though it will depend on what they do with the QB spot next year. If they make a bold move they will take a chance on Decker’s health. If its anyone currently on their roster I would not think they would do it.

Alshon Jeffrey has struggled to stand out and his tough run on touchdowns really drags him down. I wrote about him the other week and don’t think that will impact him too much but he is definitely not having the season he, or the Bears, hoped for. He really would have been a logical player to trade.

I wanted to look at how salaries were matching up with performance for veterans so I plotted salary vs performance for each player in a 9 box grid (click on the photo for a more legible photo)

dominator-index

The cutoffs for each section represents tier 1, tier 2 and tier ¾ performance vs tier 1, tier 2, and tier ¾ salaries. Though some teams I am sure are unhappy with the performance or overall salaries of their players I was surprised to see so few expensive total busts. Most of the expensive players in the low performance tier are injured and that is not something, in most cases, you can hold against the team and their decision making process.

The tier one talents likely not meeting expectations are Tavon Austin, Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, Allen Hurns, and Jeffery. Cobb and Hurns are borderline with their salary (though Hurns, if we used a RFA value in his contract is a clear tier 1) so the teams probably should not be as down there. The tier 2’s that are not hitting their mark are Mohammed Sanu, Victor Cruz, and the Redskins receivers.

Surprisingly disappointing players like Torrey Smith are not a total disaster. He is basically taking the part of a lower level number 2 receiver in a really bad offense.  Would he be any better on another team?  I would not think so, but at least I can visualize slightly why the 49ers didn’t trade him away.

The real standouts this year are Kerley, Cole Beasley, Wallace, Kenny Britt, Antonio Brown, Michael Crabtree, Brandon Marshall, Brandon LaFell, Brian Quick, Anquan Boldin, Julian Edelman, Rishard Matthews, and Travis Benjamin.  That’s not to say that all those players are great or even really good, just that they are playing a bigger role than their salary would indicate.

When it comes to players who are non-veterans its pretty hard to provide no value. The highest contracted annual salary would be Amari Cooper at $5.6 million and that’s basically a tier 3 player. Most fall in the tier 4 category and their performance matches that.

As for finding talent it would seem that very few are falling through the draft process. Pryor, ranked 5thamong non vets, is the highest player to effectively sign as a street player.  Enunwa at 7 was drafted by the Jets but could have been poached by anyone off their practice squad in 2014 and 2015. The next highest player not on a contract they were drafted into is Tyrell Williams of the Chargers at 20. Many of the players were drafted towards the top of the draft

Here is the list of everyone we had stats on through the first 8 weeks of the season.

RankPlayerTgtRecYdTDDom. IndexAPY
1Mike Evans32.0%27.8%35.7%42.9%138.3%$3,657,763
2AJ Green30.6%30.6%40.7%33.3%135.2%$15,000,000
3Mike Wallace19.4%18.5%28.2%60.0%126.1%$5,750,000
4Larry Fitzgerald24.8%28.9%26.5%41.7%121.8%$11,000,000
5Odell Beckham25.9%22.9%32.7%37.5%119.0%$2,601,550
6Demaryius Thomas23.4%24.9%30.2%40.0%118.5%$14,000,000
7Antonio Brown27.4%27.6%31.6%29.4%116.0%$8,392,000
8Emmanuel Sanders27.5%26.0%32.0%30.0%115.5%$11,000,000
9Jarvis Landry30.5%33.1%35.6%14.3%113.5%$868,727
10Jeremy Kerley27.2%25.9%29.3%28.6%111.0%$850,000
11Jordan Matthews24.0%24.0%28.7%33.3%110.1%$1,237,318
12Terrelle Pryor25.3%22.9%27.5%33.3%109.1%$1,671,000
13DeAndre Hopkins25.6%22.7%27.2%33.3%108.9%$1,906,675
14TY Hilton26.4%23.2%34.0%25.0%108.6%$13,000,000
15Quincy Enunwa20.7%22.5%27.2%37.5%107.9%$498,750
16Kelvin Benjamin22.0%20.1%25.3%40.0%107.4%$1,916,063
17Cole Beasley20.7%25.7%25.8%33.3%105.6%$3,401,500
18Michael Crabtree23.2%22.0%24.9%35.3%105.4%$8,500,000
19Doug Baldwin20.2%22.9%26.6%33.3%103.1%$11,500,000
20Julio Jones25.1%22.3%34.2%21.1%102.6%$14,250,000
21Brandon Marshall27.0%21.3%29.3%25.0%102.5%$8,666,667
22Kenny Britt20.3%22.4%33.6%25.0%101.3%$4,575,000
23Stefon Diggs22.0%22.9%30.1%25.0%100.0%$626,928
24Jordy Nelson21.8%17.6%25.0%35.3%99.7%$9,762,500
25Davante Adams20.7%22.7%25.6%29.4%98.4%$983,351
26Marvin Jones20.9%18.8%32.1%25.0%96.8%$8,000,000
27Amari Cooper24.8%24.3%34.5%11.8%95.3%$5,665,780
28Tavon Austin27.0%24.5%18.8%25.0%95.3%$10,555,501
29Brandon LaFell15.3%14.5%17.2%44.4%91.4%$2,500,000
30Jamison Crowder17.7%18.5%20.8%33.3%90.4%$706,406
31Kenny Stills15.0%11.5%19.7%42.9%89.1%$588,613
32Allen Robinson24.1%18.4%20.3%25.0%87.8%$877,718
33Brian Quick13.5%13.6%22.4%37.5%87.0%$1,750,000
34Brandin Cooks18.2%16.8%23.2%27.8%86.0%$2,095,863
35Travis Benjamin19.7%20.9%23.4%20.0%84.0%$6,000,000
36Alshon Jeffery21.6%19.1%28.2%12.5%81.4%$14,599,000
37Jeremy Maclin21.5%17.6%21.3%20.0%80.4%$11,000,000
38Allen Hurns19.3%17.8%24.5%16.7%78.3%$10,012,500
39Sterling Shepard17.8%17.7%17.4%25.0%77.8%$1,486,143
40Randall Cobb20.0%22.2%23.4%11.8%77.3%$10,000,000
41Will Fuller17.2%14.2%23.3%22.2%76.9%$2,541,078
42Michael Thomas17.9%19.6%21.9%16.7%76.0%$1,279,744
43Marquise Goodwin13.6%8.8%18.0%33.3%73.7%$713,469
44Rishard Matthews15.3%17.1%19.8%21.4%73.6%$5,000,000
45Tyrell Williams18.0%17.6%24.4%13.3%73.3%$525,000
46Tyreek Hill9.0%11.2%12.6%40.0%72.8%$646,555
47Torrey Smith15.0%11.2%17.6%28.6%72.4%$8,000,000
48Julian Edelman24.9%23.6%17.0%6.3%71.7%$4,250,000
49Anquan Boldin15.6%17.3%13.5%25.0%71.4%$2,750,000
50Robert Woods18.7%21.2%20.2%11.1%71.2%$1,216,692
51Eddie Royal12.7%15.4%16.3%25.0%69.4%$5,000,000
52Golden Tate22.0%19.9%21.2%6.3%69.4%$6,200,000
53Andrew Hawkins12.0%12.3%11.6%33.3%69.2%$3,400,000
54Adam Thielen14.8%16.3%23.5%12.5%67.2%$600,000
55DeVante Parker16.9%16.5%18.4%14.3%66.1%$2,719,135
56Steve Smith12.6%14.3%17.8%20.0%64.8%$3,500,000
57Dez Bryant16.7%10.4%15.3%22.2%64.6%$14,000,000
58Mohamed Sanu17.9%16.6%13.6%15.8%63.9%$6,500,000
59Cordarrelle Patterson10.2%13.7%12.5%25.0%61.4%$1,805,262
60Willie Snead14.3%15.9%19.2%11.1%60.5%$480,000
61Michael Floyd13.2%9.8%12.3%25.0%60.3%$3,458,300
62Terrance Williams14.0%15.3%19.6%11.1%59.9%$724,243
63Sammie Coates13.1%11.5%22.7%11.8%59.1%$727,879
64Pierre Garcon17.1%16.7%16.6%8.3%58.6%$8,500,000
65Victor Cruz15.2%13.7%17.2%12.5%58.6%$7,166,667
66Seth Roberts13.6%10.3%10.7%23.5%58.2%$525,000
67DeSean Jackson17.4%13.9%17.4%8.3%57.0%$8,000,000
68Cameron Meredith13.4%14.9%16.0%12.5%56.7%$527,000
69Nelson Agholor15.7%14.0%14.8%11.1%55.6%$2,344,343
70John Brown15.3%14.4%16.7%8.3%54.8%$699,725
71Chris Hogan10.8%10.9%18.5%12.5%52.8%$4,000,000
72Marqise Lee14.1%17.2%19.8%0.0%51.2%$1,293,506
73Dorial Green-Beckham13.5%12.0%13.3%11.1%50.0%$1,400,901
74Eric Decker7.4%5.6%10.5%25.0%48.5%$7,250,000
75Kendall Wright8.8%10.8%14.0%14.3%47.8%$2,054,613
76Quinton Patton14.6%16.4%16.5%0.0%47.5%$637,875
77Adam Humphries14.1%15.8%17.4%0.0%47.4%$480,000
78Tajae Sharpe18.5%14.6%14.4%0.0%47.4%$653,721
79Brice Butler9.9%6.9%6.8%22.2%45.8%$556,875
80Dontrelle Inman12.9%11.5%14.2%6.7%45.3%$600,000
81Danny Amendola8.0%9.2%9.0%18.8%44.9%$4,750,000
82Corey Brown12.7%11.7%9.7%10.0%44.2%$515,000
83Devin Funchess8.9%6.5%8.1%20.0%43.5%$1,380,223
84Chris Conley13.3%13.5%16.2%0.0%43.0%$780,922
85JJ Nelson7.7%7.7%10.2%16.7%42.3%$622,450
86Jermaine Kearse13.5%13.3%13.5%0.0%40.3%$4,500,000
87Corey Coleman4.3%3.9%8.9%22.2%39.4%$2,913,746
88Phillip Dorsett10.0%9.1%13.7%6.3%39.0%$2,033,853
89Tyler Boyd13.2%13.0%12.9%0.0%39.0%$1,064,743
90Ted Ginn12.4%12.3%13.2%0.0%37.9%$2,100,000
91Andre Johnson8.8%5.7%4.7%14.3%33.5%$1,867,500
92Russell Shepard4.8%6.3%7.4%14.3%32.8%$1,671,000
93Josh Huff7.4%8.7%4.9%11.1%32.1%$705,236
94Vincent Jackson11.9%9.5%10.4%0.0%31.8%$11,111,111
95Kevin White12.3%10.1%9.0%0.0%31.5%$4,140,762
96Tyler Lockett10.3%10.2%10.9%0.0%31.4%$829,688
97Ty Montgomery9.1%11.4%9.9%0.0%30.3%$737,199
98Jaron Brown6.7%5.7%8.9%8.3%29.7%$1,671,000
99Donte Moncrief6.1%5.6%5.5%12.5%29.6%$702,130
100Ricardo Louis11.0%8.9%9.5%0.0%29.4%$726,962
101Breshad Perriman11.0%7.4%10.5%0.0%28.9%$2,176,333
102Eli Rogers7.3%7.5%7.2%5.9%27.9%$526,667
103Walt Powell9.8%8.8%9.2%0.0%27.7%$600,000
104Brandon Coleman6.5%7.0%7.4%5.6%26.5%$480,000
105Robby Anderson8.8%9.4%8.2%0.0%26.4%$540,000
106Jordan Norwood8.8%8.3%7.3%0.0%24.4%$880,000
107Jaelen Strong8.1%8.0%8.2%0.0%24.3%$820,338
108Tanner McEvoy1.6%1.8%3.8%16.7%23.9%$540,000
109Justin Hardy4.7%5.2%3.3%10.5%23.7%$705,205
110Darrius Heyward-Bey4.7%2.9%3.6%11.8%23.0%$1,266,667
111Greg Salas2.6%2.9%6.2%11.1%22.8%$785,000
112Kamar Aiken7.4%6.9%8.5%0.0%22.8%$2,553,000
113Bennie Fowler5.5%4.1%3.1%10.0%22.7%$525,000
114Taylor Gabriel4.7%5.7%7.0%5.3%22.6%$510,000
115Andre Holmes3.7%3.7%1.9%11.8%21.1%$2,000,000
122Paul Richardson5.6%4.8%6.4%0.0%16.8%$1,178,209
128Sammy Watkins4.7%4.4%4.4%0.0%13.5%$4,983,901
139Keenan Allen2.4%3.3%2.9%0.0%8.6%$11,250,000
140Harry Douglas3.6%2.5%2.3%0.0%8.4%$3,750,000
145Jarius Wright1.7%2.6%2.1%0.0%6.4%$3,700,000
148Josh Doctson1.9%0.9%2.8%0.0%5.6%$2,512,411
155Cecil Shorts2.2%0.6%0.7%0.0%3.6%$1,050,000
169Matt Slater0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%$1,800,000
177Dwayne Harris0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%$3,500,000
178Devin Hester0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%$1,100,000
181Keshawn Martin0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%$1,062,500
186Laquon Treadwell0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%$2,483,745
187Eric Weems0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%$1,140,000