Reviewing the Round 2 and Round 3 Draft Trades

The other day we discussed trade values and salary cap considerations and we’ll apply those concepts to the trades that took place during round 2 and round 3 of the draft.

Redskins/Cowboys

Washington was able to move the number 34 pick to the Cowboys which was a big financial deal because the 34th pick carries guarantees that extend into the third season.  Essentially the Skins end up getting about 83% of the expected performance at 68% of the cost in the second round. That’s solid value. Overall Dallas will pay $320K per expected value while the Redskins pay just $214,709.  The justification for Dallas is they about double their chance of finding a Pro Bowl player, but its still a big price. Winner: Redskins

Lions/Seahawks

Detroit moves up 5 spots and gets a 5 back for a 4 and a 7. As discussed before the 7th round pick is essentially useless and including that helps the Lions reduce their financial outlay in the trade.  If we assume the 7th round pick needs to make the team to prove his worth the Seahawks pay $261,537 per point compared to $274,838 for Detroit. Seattle can probably get the same look on the Practice Squad to bring their costs down a little but in general this is a pretty even deal. Winner: None

Rams/Bills

There is essentially no difference in performance between the number 41 and 44 pick and the guarantee is also similar. The 5th rounder carries limited value. The Bills pay $276,714 per point compared to $276,996 for the Rams. That’s a trade that carries an equal benefit for both sides. Winner: None

Eagles/Titans

This is somewhat similar to the Redskins. Cowboys trade except the Eagles won’t get stuck with a 3rd year guarantee. Philadelphia does get the better upside here but is going to pay more than the Titans for that opportunity. Getting a 4th round pick still brings solid value to the Titans who slightly beat the Eagles by about $50,000 on this trade. Winner: Titans in a close one

Chargers/Dolphins

San Diego gives up a 4 to move up 7 spots in round 2.  This is another area where moving a few spots down is really giving up little and you get a decent price break. Overall the costs are close here ($248K vs $218K). Winner: Dolphins by a hair

Broncos/49ers/Dolphins

49ers drop down 7 spots and get rid of a worthless 7 for a 5th rounder this year and 4th the next. In turn they flip all but the 2015 pick to the Dolphins to jump back up to 57. The Broncos ended up paying around $270,000 per point and taking on a worthless 7th rounder is simply paying more for Cody Latimer. San Francisco will pay around $210,000 assuming an average 4th rounder next year while Miami is at $195,000 for their move. Winner: Dolphins with 49ers a close second.

 

Jaguars/49ers

Jacksonville moves up 9 spots and parts with a 5th rounder to grab a risky wide receiver. Assuming the Niners need to pay a full salary for both pick received they win $164.9K to $193K. If they can make an early determination as to the player worth it’s a clear knockout for the 49ers.  Winner: 49ers

Dolphins/Raiders

This is the spot of the draft where things begin to turn for moving down and dropping 14 slots is significant in terms of expected performance compared to salary drop. For this trade to work in Oakland’s favor financially by just a slight margin they need to decide on one of the two picks before the season begins. Winner: Dolphins

Texans/Eagles

Philadelphia moves out of the third round entirely to pick up a 5th rounder. Similar to the above trade, if the Eagles can make an early determination on their players then it’s a win for the Eagles, in this case a big win. Otherwise the Texans pick up around $30,000 in value. Winner: Texans with slight win

Jaguars/Patriots

Jaguars jump back into the third round while the Patriots drop out entirely. If the Patriots make a quick determination on the merit of the 6th rounder they can come out ahead by about $30,000. If they fail to do so the Jaguars got the better of the trade from a financial perspective. Winner: Jaguars with slight win

Browns/49ers

Similar to the last two trades the only way the team moving down makes out well here is y being able to make a determination on a pick prior to the 2014 season or hitting on the player. Packaging the late picks in this case really just

adds more cost onto the team trading down rather than giving them good value. Winner: Browns

 


 

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