Jason Fitzgerald


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2015 NFL Draft Selection Tracker

Welcome to our NFL Draft Selection Tracker. We are currently updated through the results of the 4PM games in week 12. Hopefully this tracker will give you a better idea for your mock drafting or fan discussions as it reflects the overall SOS rather than the SOS at this moment in time.

The draft order for the first 20 selections is determined by win/loss record with ties being broken by strength of schedule.  Most draft charts will only use the current SOS, but for this chart we use the SOS projections for a teams’ entire schedule since it’s that number that eventually matters. Picks 21 through 32 are determined by playoff exits. For the time being I am not making those changes since it is so early in the season for tiebreakers, but for this week what that would mean is that the Saints, Colts, Lions and Steelers are all in the 21+ range despite their current draft status.

Our current top 5 picks belong to the Raiders, Jaguars, Buccaneers, Titans, and Jets.  At this point I would say that the top 4 teams all have a chance to obtain the number one overall pick.  Tampa and Tennessee are neck and neck for winning a tiebreaker and if the Raiders or Jaguars fall into a tie with those teams they will immediately move to the back of the group.

Jacksonville has the “clearest” path to number 1. If they lose out its almost a certainty they will win it. For the Raiders to get the 1 they are going to need to lose out and have the Jaguars win one game. Their Thursday night game against the Titans in a few weeks could be for the number 1 overall pick if the Raiders win another game. If the Jaguars lose to the Titans, the Titans will jump them in the race for the top picks.  The Jets basically have no chance for the number 1 selection and could be at number 7 by the end of Monday nights game against Buffalo.

If you notice any other errors also let me know and Ill check the formulas to make sure the schedules are correct.

2015 Projected Draft Order, November 23 (All 4PM Games Included)

PickTeamWin %SOS
1Jaguars0.0910.517
2Raiders0.0910.603
3Buccaneers0.1820.471
4Titans0.1820.485
5Jets0.2000.552
6Redskins0.2730.488
7Giants0.3000.511
8Panthers0.3180.500
9Vikings0.3640.477
10Falcons0.3640.480
11Rams0.3640.552
12Saints0.4000.486
13Texans0.4550.433
14Bears0.4550.509
15Bills0.5000.534
16Dolphins0.5450.503
17Ravens0.6000.483
18Browns0.6360.439
19Steelers0.6360.456
20Colts0.6360.471
21Lions0.6360.474
22Chargers0.6360.509
23Chiefs0.6360.517
2449ers0.6360.538
25Seahawks0.6360.549
26Bengals0.6820.494
27Cowboys0.7000.457
28Eagles0.7270.462
29Packers0.7270.477
30Broncos0.7270.537
31Patriots0.8180.509
32Cardinals0.8180.523

 

NFL Predictions 2014: Week 12

Some big upsets last week which helped lead to a 7-7 record SU and 8-6 record ATS. My record on the season now stands at 104-56-1 and 93-64-4.  I’m not off to a good start with the pick of the Chiefs on Thursday. Let’s hope or better luck today…

 

Browns (+3) over FALCONS- Cleveland needs a better effort than last week, but should get somewhat healthy against a poor Falcons defense.  If Browns defense dictates the pace of the game they will win outright. Browns 21 Falcons 17

EAGLES (-11) over Titans- Philly was embarrassed last week  but should bounce back this week with a big win. If LeSean McCoy can’t have a monster game against the Titans you can probably write that off for the rest of the season.  Eagles 29 Titans 17

Lions (+7.5) over PATRIOTS- With the NFC so tight  this is a game the Lions would like to have especially to avoid a losing streak. That said New England is clicking on all cylinders and Detroit’s offense likely cant keep up in a game that gets in the 20s. But the line seems to be selling the Lions defense way short and if they play the way they have the Lions offense should stumble their way into the end zone a few times.  Patriots 20 Lions 14

Packers (-7.5) over VIKINGS- I tried to come up with a way to give the Vikings a chance and I cant do it. Their offense is so poor and its designed to just completely hide a QB. Jennings will be back for Minnesota which doesn’t mean much, though he may be trying to audition to a return to Green Bay after he is released next season. Packers 28 Vikings 14

COLTS (-13.5) over Jaguars- The Colts look to be at least a year away from competing with the big boys, but they will dominate the rest of the NFL, especially the cellar dwellers like the Jaguars. Only chance for Jacksonville is if they have likely prepared for this game as if it’s the Super Bowl and may have a higher than expected level of intensity. Even then its hard to see a win. Colts 34 Jaguars 16

Bengals (+2) over TEXANS- I see this being a real flip a coin kind of game between two pretty evenly matched teams. The Bengals fate always lays in the hands of their quarterback and whether or not he throws the games away for them.   Close game decided by a field goal late so Ill take the points. Texans 17 Bengals 16

Buccaneers (+5.5) over BEARS- I don’t think this game means all that much to the Bears players beyond just getting a win, but if the Bucs players have any connection to their head coach or, to a lesser extent, quarterback, they will likely give that extra effort that could push things in their favor. Chicago has better talent and the home field but that defense is so bad that I cant expect them to win by 6. Bears 24 Buccaneers 20

Cardinals (+7.5) over SEAHAWKS- The line certainly scares me since its begging me to take Arizona, but I’ll do it anyway. Seattle will need to get away from their usual way of playing if they are to beat Arizona unless Arizona is just overwhelmed by the atmosphere of the game. Arizona’s been the better team and Ill select them to continue to be that. Cardinals 19 Seahawks 17

CHARGERS (-6) over Rams- I can’t really figure the Rams out and the Chargers are trending don making this a high line to consider, but the Rams haven’t been the most consistent of teams and if there is a game that can be a letdown its this one. Chargers 21 Rams 14

Dolphins (+6.5) over BRONCOS- I think this will be much closer than people think. The Miami defense is going to get pressure on Manning this week and if that disrupts him anything can happen. Miami has lost a few heartbreakers and I think they actually get one back in Denver. Dolphins 23 Broncos 21

Redskins (+8.5) over 49ers- I hate taking the Redskins who are the most dysfunctional team in the NFL right now, but the 49ers haven’t been that good of late and this is a huge line for their offense to cover. Maybe Colt McCoy even shows up here to get the cover. 49ers 23 Redskins 17

Cowboys (-3.5) over GIANTS- New York has a lot of thinking to do when it comes to next season and most likely this game will give  them more reasons to consider blowing it up next year.  These teams often play close but lately the Giants will find a way to give Dallas enough points to help them cover. Cowboys 29 Giants 20

BILLS (-1.5) over Jets- Im not sure who will be the home team in this one, but it shouldn’t matter. Buffalo’s defense has been very good and the Jets offense has not and that is likely the deciding matchup in the game. Jets need to sop big plays to win, something they have rarely done this year. Bills 23 Jets 16

Ravens (+3) over SAINTS- The best team in the NFC South this week will likely be the Panthers simply because they are on a bye. Saints are not a good team while the Ravens are much better than the record. They should take advantage of Saints mistakes to win outright. Ravens 27 Saints 20

Podcast: Peterson, Veteran Waivers, Revis, Giants, NFL Picks and More…

In this week’s OTC podcast I cover a number of topics including:

– The Adrian Peterson situation and the NFL’s constant making up of rules

– The veteran waivers process with Ben Tate and LeGarrette Blount

– What Darrelle Revis might earn and the problems with overpaying a cornerback

– Eli Manning’s future as the Giants struggles continue

-Allen Baileys contract extension with Kansas City and the Chiefs cap situation next year

– My picks for week 12

View in iTunes

Listen via Stitcher

Subscribe to the OTC Podcast

Week 12 OTC FanDuel Fantasy Football League

We actually hit our target of 16 teams last week (!) so FanDuel expaned the league to 22 teams. The cost to join is still $2 and the top 4 teams will win a prize. Once again feel free to let any friends of yours who play or might want to play to check it out since we are pushing the limit higher again this week.The deadline for entry is a few minutes before the 1PM kickoff on Sunday. Remember that each week we will have a new league so there is also no commitment to play beyond week 12.

Follow this link for the OTC Week 12 FanDuel League

If you haven’t tried FanDuel out yet its basically a weekly fantasy football league where your team is made up within the constraints of a salary cap. They do have free games to try out and if you click through the link you should be able to see how the game works and how you pick a team without needing to sign up. By signing up through OTC FanDuel will also issue you a deposit bonus to try out the games. It’s really fun and I definitely recommend it to anyone that can spare a few dollars each week. Our OTC is still a small league so its a good type of league to learn this type f fantasy game in as well before making the leap to more expensive games.

In last weeks game I was able to just hold on for the win with 147 points primarily behind Mike Evans of the Bucs.  For this week my receiver strategy I tried worked out quite well, but I came up way short in the running back department. I had high hopes for Steven Jackson based on opponent and lets say that was a big swing and miss.

Danfrommadison came on strong late with the big performance from Le’Veon Bell and would have won had the Patriots used Shane Vereen more on Sunday night. Ocho_evilo pulled up third with what may have been the most balanced team of the week and tokyola took the final prize spot of the week.

Congrats to all the winners and good luck to the players this week!

Sign Up  for the OTC Week 12 FanDuel League

NFL Predictions 2014: Week 12 Thursday Night Football

Some big upsets last week which helped lead to a 7-7 record SU and 8-6 record ATS. My record on the season now stands at 104-56-1 and 93-64-4.  Onto another boring edition of Thursday Night Football…

Chiefs (-7.5) over RAIDERS- It’s hard to see the Raiders having much of a shot in this game unless the Chiefs sleepwalk through it. The Chiefs run game is terrific and should match up well with the Raiders defense. The biggest weakness on the Chiefs defense is their run defense, depsite the weird no touchdown stat, but that is also the run offense of the Raiders is one of the worst in the NFL. I’ve liked the bit I have seen of the Raiders QB, but he is very mistake prone and is going to be under heavy pressure tonight from the Chiefs pass rush which will likely make things even worse. They could go to an extreme short passing game to try to avoid the rush but thats not going to bring about a positive result, its just going to limit the really negative ones. Chiefs continue to push towards the playoffs while Oakland keeps pushing to the number 1 pick. Chiefs 24 Raiders 10

OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 12

Following their blowout win against the Colts, the Patriots vault to the top spot in the rankings. The Packers also had a major jump after stifling the Eagles while the Broncos fell to number 3 off their bad loss to the Rams.

Looking through the list, the OTC top 10 is an interesting group of teams. There are really no balanced teams in the group at all. The Patriots, Packers, Broncos, and Colts are all very efficient at scoring points but not nearly as good at preventing them. Still they trend above average. The Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, and Cardinals are all mediocre to poor offenses but are having incredible defensive seasons. I guess the Eagles and Seahawks would be the most balanced. Both are average offenses combined with good but not standout defensive units.

At the bottom of the pile, the Rams made a leap up while the Redskins took a big dive down. Tampa Bay’s win helped push them out of the bottom spot.

 

NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 11

RankChangeTeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyProjected Wins
1+2Patriots30.9%13.5%44.4%12.2
2+6Packers28.0%10.3%38.3%11.6
3-2Broncos21.1%14.0%35.0%11.3
4+1Ravens8.4%22.9%31.3%11.0
5+1Dolphins1.5%29.4%31.0%11.0
6-4Colts22.7%6.6%29.3%10.8
7-3Chiefs-4.3%33.5%29.2%10.8
8+1Cardinals-7.6%31.0%23.4%10.3
9+1Seahawks-0.2%16.5%16.3%9.6
10-3Eagles13.7%0.0%13.7%9.3
11-Lions-29.2%40.8%11.5%9.2
12+1Cowboys11.5%-0.1%11.4%9.1
13+5Texans-15.0%21.3%6.2%8.6
14+1Bills-14.9%20.7%5.8%8.6
15-1Chargers-14.2%20.0%5.8%8.6
16-4Saints5.0%-1.8%3.2%8.3
17+3Bengals-15.3%18.3%2.9%8.3
18-2Steelers2.6%-0.6%2.0%8.2
19-49ers-21.4%21.7%0.3%8.1
20-3Browns-21.1%21.2%0.1%8.0
21-Giants-17.4%3.2%-14.2%6.7
22-Vikings-34.5%16.9%-17.6%6.4
23+1Falcons-13.6%-8.3%-21.9%5.9
24+5Rams-25.7%2.9%-22.7%5.9
25+3Bears-16.6%-8.7%-25.3%5.6
26-1Panthers-25.9%0.1%-25.7%5.6
27-Titans-35.2%6.5%-28.7%5.3
28-5Redskins-24.0%-5.8%-29.8%5.2
29-3Jets-22.3%-10.7%-33.0%4.9
30-Raiders-36.3%1.5%-34.8%4.7
31+1Buccaneers-29.0%-13.9%-42.9%3.9
32-1Jaguars-32.0%-19.1%-51.1%3.2

Whats Next For Adrian Peterson via SN

In this week’s piece for the Sporting News I examine what could be next for Adrian Peterson, including why this suspension has a large financial impact, what happens if the Vikings release him, and how they can possibly trade him next year.

Read the Full Article at the Sporting News