Jason Fitzgerald


Recent Posts by Jason

Week 8 OTC FanDuel Fantasy Football Contest

After another fun week of FanDuel with the readers of the site we have another game set up for this week. The entry fee is again $2 and I’ve expanded the field to 10 teams, which hopefully we can fill.  We have it set up so it wont cancel if we fall short but it seems like there is enough interest to get to 10 teams. Top 3 teams will win prizes for the week. You can sign up up until the 1PM games kickoff.

Follow this Link for the OTC Week 8 FanDuel League 

If you have not yet signed up for FanDuel I definitely reccomend it if you are a fan of Fantasy sports and have a few extra dollars to spend. There are all kinds of weekly leagues and there is no commitment beyond the game you sign up for. I can’t say I’m very good at it, but its a great deal of fun and just getting to put together the salary capped team is very addictive.

Last week was pretty much a no contest with Shawk running out to a quick lead after the 1PM games and never looking back. Shawk’s team scored an impressive 150.9 points with a big lift coming from Golden Tate, Sammy Watkins, and Kyle Orton, three excelent value picks last week. I snuck in second again, but way behind this time at just 115.9 pts. I had a few disappointing players but none a total dud (though Delanie Walker was pretty terrible). Unfortunately only Tate broke out and you need some breakout players to win.  Etobiason came in third place kind of in the same boat I was in with no real breakout showings on the team.

Congratulations to the winners and lets see if we can keep this going for the rest of the year.

 

Franchise Tags Can and Often Do Go Horribly Wrong… via SN

Check out my article this week at the Sporting News looking at the disappointment that often results from playing a season out on the Franchise tag.

NFL Predictions 2014: Week 8 Thursday Night Football

Last week I went 8-7 when playing with the points and 10-5 just picking winners. The yearly record is now 71-34-1 SU and 62-41-3 ATS.  Lets jump into Thursday night which is a big one…

Chargers (+9) over BRONCOS- This has the makings of a terrific football game and will solidify people’s feelings about San Diego one way or the other. On paper it is hard to imagine the Chargers being able to keep the Broncos offense in check, but they have been playing very well this season and don’t seem to make many glaring mistakes that Peyton Manning would eat up. Denver’s defense has been very good this year and should prove to be a strong test for Rivers and Gates. I think if the Broncos can keep Gates under wraps it becomes a more difficult task for San Diego especially if they can not establish their running game.  We got an exciting Thursday night one last week and I have my fingers crossed for another one tonight. Broncos 23 Chargers 20

Jets Extend WR Jeremy Kerley for 4 Years, $16 Million

According to multiple outlets the Jets and wide receiver Jeremy Kerley have agreed to a four year contract extension worth $16 million with $5.4 million of the contract guaranteed.

The reported numbers put Kerley right below recent contracts signed by Julian Edelman ($4.25M per year) and Doug Baldwin ($4.33M). The total dollar figure and guarantee seem to indicate a contract very similar to the one signed by Andre Roberts with the Washington Redskins at $16 million with a $5.25 million guarantee.

I would assume Kerley’s $5.4 million guarantee is a true guarantee and not a combination of full and injury only guarantees based on the other contracts. Kerley’s salary this season was $1.431 million following his earning of the Proven Performance Escalator, and if I had to venture a guess would imagine is now guaranteed. That would leave a signing bonus in the region of $4-$4.6 million depending on how much, if any is guaranteed, in 2015.  Regardless the cap hits on the contract should be very reasonable for the Jets.

Kerley is one of the few bright spots in recent years on the Jets. He developed nicely since being drafted in 2011 into the best receiver on the team and I believe would have put up very strong numbers on a better offense. Following the trade  for Percy Harvin I had assumed that it would have meant the end for Kerley in Jet green, but the front office must believe the two can complement each other in the office.

2015 NFL Draft Selection Tracker

Welcome to our NFL Draft Selection Tracker. Now that we are nearly halfway into the season some of us unfortunately are already turning our attention to where our favorite teams will be selecting in the upcoming NFL draft. Hopefully this tracker will give you a better idea for your mock drafting or fan discussions. For now I will update the standings every Tuesday, but as we get deeper into the season I will update on Friday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday to keep as up to date as possible.

The draft order for the first 20 selections is determined by win/loss record with ties being broken by strength of schedule.  Most draft charts will only use the current SOS, but for this chart we use the SOS projections for a teams’ entire schedule since it’s that number that eventually matters. Picks 21 through 32 are determined by playoff exits. For the time being I am not making those changes since it is so early in the season, but for this week what that would mean is that the Bills and Panthers should pick 21 and 22 with the other teams being slotted down.

Our current top 5 picks belong to the Raiders, Jets, Jaguars, Buccaneers, and Vikings.  Based on how strong the Raiders division looks they will likely have a difficult time winning any draft tiebreaker this season. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has a tiebreaker advantage over almost anyone because the NFC South is terrible.

Eventually I’ll add a list of trades so feel free to email me any trades you know of for next season. If you notice any other errors also let me know and Ill check the formulas to make sure the schedules are correct.

2015 Projected Draft Order, October 21

PickTeamWin %SOS
1Raiders0.0000.573
2Jets0.1430.542
3Jaguars0.1430.556
4Buccaneers0.1670.458
5Vikings0.2860.477
6Falcons0.2860.486
7Titans0.2860.500
8Redskins0.2860.533
9Saints0.3330.491
10Rams0.3330.544
11Texans0.4290.481
12Bears0.4290.509
13Giants0.4290.547
14Browns0.5000.449
15Panthers0.5000.462
16Dolphins0.5000.495
17Bengals0.5000.505
18Chiefs0.5000.510
19Seahawks0.5000.572
20Steelers0.5710.439
21Bills0.5710.491
2249ers0.5710.535
23Ravens0.7140.458
24Lions0.7140.458
25Packers0.7140.463
26Chargers0.7140.480
27Patriots0.7140.495
28Colts0.8330.491
29Broncos0.8330.500
30Eagles0.8330.514
31Cardinals0.8330.519
32Cowboys0.8570.476

The OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 8

With Monday night now in the books we have our official power rankings up to date. In case you have not read these before the rankings are based on a formula that measures how well (or poor) a team has performed against their specific schedule. So to read the chart for Denver you would say that the team scores 53.3% more points than their schedule allowed against all other teams and held their schedule to 18.3% below their normal points scored. The projected wins is based on a regression formula so that’s why in some cases teams are already above or below their projections. The projections will change over the course of the year.

Despite the loss in St. Louis, the Seahawks still remain one of the top 5 teams in the NFL. They have played an incredibly difficult schedule  and while they are trending downward there is clearly enough there to win the division. Their defense is clearly not what it was last season which should have been expected. The variance year to year in that category is very high ad they were one of the best Super Bowl champions in that regard. The fact that they were an excellent defensive team two years in a row is surprising and to sustain that for three years would be really hard to do. What they need to do is stabilize themselves and prevent the falling off a cliff that we are seeing in Cincinnati, who has now plummeted to 15th in the rankings.

The AFC West is looking like the most elite division in the NFL. Currently they are fielding three top 10 teams in the rankings. The divisions with two are the NFC East and the NFC West. The most up for grabs division with decent play looks to be the AFC East with the Dolphins, Patriots, and Bills all sandwiched in the mid teens. The NFC South is on track to be the worst division of all time with rankings of 22, 23, 27, and 32.

NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 7

RankChangeTeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyProjected Wins
1-Broncos53.3%18.3%71.7%14.8
2-Colts51.6%19.7%71.3%14.7
3+1Ravens9.5%41.4%50.9%12.9
4-1Seahawks23.6%11.9%35.5%11.3
5-Chargers14.4%20.7%35.1%11.3
6+2Chiefs11.4%20.7%32.2%11.1
7+3Eagles27.5%1.4%28.9%10.7
8+4Packers26.9%1.8%28.7%10.7
9-Cowboys15.9%7.4%23.3%10.2
10-4Cardinals3.0%16.6%19.7%9.9
11+2Lions-19.8%34.4%14.5%9.4
12-149ers0.7%10.2%10.9%9.0
13+6Dolphins11.7%-1.0%10.6%9.0
14-Patriots18.5%-13.4%5.0%8.4
15-8Bengals-2.7%7.3%4.6%8.4
16-Bills-7.7%12.3%4.5%8.4
17-Texans-3.6%7.3%3.7%8.4
18-Giants-0.1%0.1%0.0%8.0
19-4Browns0.1%-9.1%-9.0%7.1
20+3Steelers-11.4%-6.3%-17.7%6.3
21-1Bears-9.3%-9.1%-18.4%6.2
22-Saints9.9%-29.5%-19.6%6.1
23-1Panthers3.2%-23.5%-20.4%6.0
24-1Vikings-29.2%4.4%-24.8%5.7
25+3Jets-18.6%-9.8%-28.3%5.3
26+1Redskins-8.9%-22.3%-31.1%5.0
27-3Falcons1.1%-32.9%-31.8%4.9
28-2Titans-28.0%-5.1%-33.1%4.9
29+1Rams-13.5%-27.4%-40.8%4.1
30-1Raiders-32.1%-15.4%-47.5%3.5
31-Jaguars-35.7%-13.9%-49.6%3.3
32-1Buccaneers-22.8%-52.9%-75.7%0.8

 

NFL Stock Down: Week 7

Every Monday during the season we will take a look back at three players who are entering important stages of their contract that may have hurt their stock in upcoming negotiations with their play on Sunday. In addition we will also look at one player signed in the offseason to a new contract that did not live up to the expectations that his contract sets for the player.

Stock Down

Brian Hoyer- Maybe Hoyer was reading into the press clippings too much but this was a dog of a game that looked more backup level quarterback than competent starter. To complete 39% of your passes against Jacksonville is about as bad a game a player can have in the NFL. For a player at his level he cant afford many games like this.

CJ Spiller- I always dislike putting an injured player in this category, but this was really devastating for Spiller who will likely miss the rest of the season. Spiller needed more of an opportunity in his walk year to do something special enough to warrant a mid tier contract. Now he could be looking at either a one year “prove it” type contract in the same pay range of Knowshon Moreno or a far lesser two year contract like Ben Tate.

Osi Umenyiora- Another game and another empty stat sheet for Umenyiora. The Falcons are not out of the race because the NFC South is so bad, but if there is a player they should trade its Osi, who doesn’t fit in the system and isn’t benefitting either side by remaining in Atlanta.

New Contract Disappointment Of The Week

Andy Dalton- When Dalton is bad he can be atrocious and after a hot start it looks like the Bengals have entered the bad Dalton period of the season. The franchise QB finished the day 18 of 38 for a sad 126 yards and no scores. That can’t be what the Bengals expected when they signed Dalton to a $16 million a year extension this offseason.