2017 Contract Estimates: Brandon Williams

Last week, we established a market for upcoming free agent Denver nose tackle Sylvester Williams despite some difficulty finding appropriate players to use as comparables for the 4th year player because there just aren’t a lot of 2nd contract interior linemen in the league with similar age/stats/production.

Today, we take a look at another 3-4 NT named Williams, this time Brandon of the Baltimore Ravens.

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OTC Power Rankings and Thoughts on Future Records

With the season ¾ of the way complete I wanted to post my updated power rankings and do a brief forecast for the remainder of the year.  If you are unfamiliar with these metrics they score teams based on how much more or less they score than their opposition generally allows and how much they hold teams under their averages. So a team with a 24% scoring efficiency scores 24% more than their opponents allow against other opponents and a -24% defensive efficiency would indicate that they hold a team to 24% less than their normal scoring output. Total efficiency is simply the combination of the two numbers and the predicted record is a historical look at what teams with these efficiency score would normally finish the season at. For our forecast well look at the upcoming SOS and see where matchup issues may occur. Continue reading OTC Power Rankings and Thoughts on Future Records »

Wide Receiver Consistency

In several of my WR and TE tier articles this year, I have used consistency or lack thereof as a reason why a particular player is or is not meeting his contract expectations. However, “Player A is consistent and Player B is not” without supporting analysis isn’t a very strong argument. Today, I would like to explore two methods of determining a player’s consistency: median statistics and frequency of hitting specific milestones.

My earlier posts on receivers and tight ends looked at production when averaged over 16 games. While it is important to look at season totals, a significant missing piece was what to do with players like Marvin Jones who started the season hot, then cooled off significantly. Jones’ 2016 totals should look good when viewed as one number, but the Lions are really getting several games at amazing value and several games where they’re getting well below market value.

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Looking at Rob Gronkowski’s Contract and Injuries

The NFL can be a funny place. One minute everyone sings your praises and the next everyone questions your future with the team. It happens on all levels from GM to coach to player. Amazingly I saw that talk filter to Rob Gronkowski who has gone through another season of injuries the latest of which landed him on IR for the remainder of the season.  It’s quite the turnaround from last year where many of those same people were saying he deserved a raise for his level of play. I know it’s easy to get caught up in the “Patriot way” of doing business which has seen superstars traded or allowed to walk in free agency without a second thought, but I don’t see that as the case here. Continue reading Looking at Rob Gronkowski’s Contract and Injuries »

2017 Contract Estimates: Sylvester Williams

As the NFL juggernaut steams toward the most exciting part of the season, General Managers are spending time formulating various virtual team roster models that stretch out as many as three years into the future, beginning with the 2017 league year. One of the important components of a roster model involves decisions revolving around unrestricted free agents.

We have followed the weekly play of interior defensive linemen that signed new contracts in 2016. Keeping with the NT/DT theme, I want to peer into the contract future of the top interior linemen that are set to become UFA’s after the 2016 season ends.

The seven gentlemen we will evaluate are a mix of 3-4 and 4-3 defense players: Nick Fairley, Johnathan Hankins, Bennie Logan, Dontari Poe, Kawann Short, Brandon Williams and Sylvester Williams.

Today’s featured subject is Denver Broncos nose tackle Sylvester Williams.

Continue reading 2017 Contract Estimates: Sylvester Williams »

Thoughts on Revis’ Contract and Future

With Darrelle Revis’ struggles becoming more pronounced by the week, his contract for next year has become a hot topic of discussion. Revis was signed in 2015 to a five year, $70 million contract with nearly $40 million in guarantees to help correct what many felt was a mistake made by the Jets in 2013.  It didn’t take long for most to notice in 2015 that this version of Revis was a far cry from the 2009/10 version that was the best defender in the NFL, but in 2016 he looks like a shell of a player. The Jets have not even finished paying the guaranteed portion of the contract but they are clearly going to have to consider moving on next year. It’s possible that this will mark the end of Revis’ career, at least as a cornerback, and should certainly mark the end of his run as the highest paid player at his position. So what are the options for Revis and the Jets?  Continue reading Thoughts on Revis’ Contract and Future »

Revisiting The Questionable QB Decisions of 2016

On Sunday I posed the question on Twitter as to what was the worst big money QB move of the offseason. I got a lot of responses and questions so I thought I would flesh that out as a post and give my opinions for what I thought were questionable contract decisions this past offseason with quarterbacks. Three to me stand out as bad and the last two are more food for thought as to approaching team building and the difficult decisions teams make. Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments on these or any other deals.

Texans Sign Brock Osweiler
Cost: $37 million in guarantees

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