Examining the Marginal Value Implied in Player Contracts

There are a number of ways to look at roster construction in the NFL, and Nick recently did a great job with his roster texture charts(which you should read if you haven’t already), but today I wanted to look to see how teams really derive their value when they build a roster. Normally when we look at a roster we look at two basic numbers- salary cap charges and contract annual value- and then compare franchises across the board. But I got to thinking, wouldn’t it be a much more accurate portrayal if we put those numbers in perspective by seeing how much marginal value a team is really assigning to their highest paid players?  For example Peyton Manning makes more than Darrelle Revis, but Manning plays a position where the average salary for a starter is over $12 million. Tehnically the Jets are giving up more by having Revis as the highest paid player on the team, even if Manning has a higher stated salary. So we can best define value by determining the cost above average a team spends on their top players on the team. Continue reading Examining the Marginal Value Implied in Player Contracts »

Commitment Index Update (Training Camp Edition)

Now that all of the draft picks have signed and a number of players have agreed to noteworthy extensions, I thought this would be a good time to provide an update as to where each team currently stands with respect to Commitment Index. I will provide the final Commitment Index update for 2015 after final rosters are set, and then at the conclusion of the season I will provide the initial Commitment Index for 2016.

Continue reading Commitment Index Update (Training Camp Edition) »

The Cash Flow Structure of a Russell Wilson Contract

According to a report by Ian Rapoport of NFL Network and NFL.com, a big disconnect that currently exists between Russell Wilson and the Seahawks is because of the year by year breakdown of the Seahawks contract, specifically the payments made in 2015. Rapoport indicated that the Seahawks offer would pay Wilson less than $20 million this season, which is a far cry from the $28 million earned by Matt Ryan and $30 million earned by Cam Newton on their extensions. This is something I had discussed as a potential problem a few weeks ago. The problem lies primarily in the other two contracts having large on the book salaries when they signed their deals compared to Wilson’s $1.542 million salary. So let’s look closer at those two contracts and see what the Seahawks are likely offering compared to what Wilson may want. Continue reading The Cash Flow Structure of a Russell Wilson Contract »

Colts Release Gosder Cherilus

The Colts have announced the release of right tackle Gosder Cherilus. Cherilus had signed a $35 million contract in 2013 that made him the highest priced right tackle in the NFL. It was a bit of a head scratching move at the time and given the fact that they released him just two years later likely indicates that they regretted the decision. Because the release occurs after June 1, the $8.7 million in dead money in his contract will split across the 2015 and 2016 seasons with $2.9 million counting in 2015.  Continue reading Colts Release Gosder Cherilus »

Saints Release Junior Galette

According to multiple reports the New Orleans Saints are releasing star pass rusher Junior Galette just one year after signing him to a massive $41.5 million contract extension. Galette, who was rumored to be on the trading block all winter, had been involved in a few off field incidents and also was injured at some point during the offseason. From a salary perspective this is a massive blow to the Saints, who are seemingly clearing the roster this year and beginning a new chapter for the team. They will carry over $17 million in dead money charges over the next two seasons for Galette. Continue reading Saints Release Junior Galette »

The impact of GM job security on decision-making in the cap carryover era

The job description of an NFL general manager lends itself to contradiction. On one hand, a GM is responsible for keeping both the present and future of the franchise in mind when making decisions. But GM’s know that if they aren’t successful today then they won’t be around for the future.

This past offseason, six teams—the Eagles, Falcons, Bears, Redskins, Dolphins and Jets—either hired a new GM or rearranged front office roles to effectively put a new GM in place. And this wasn’t an anomaly. Of the 30 GM’s who don’t double as team owners (the Jones’ in Dallas and Mike Brown in Cincinnati), only seven have held their position prior to 2010.

There’s no Expected Contract Value—a tool that places a numerical value on a players future job security based on the analysis of past data—for general managers. Still, it’s safe to say decision makers know when their seat is getting warm, and this can lead to a conflict of interests. Continue reading The impact of GM job security on decision-making in the cap carryover era »