Looking at Rob Gronkowski’s Contract and Injuries

The NFL can be a funny place. One minute everyone sings your praises and the next everyone questions your future with the team. It happens on all levels from GM to coach to player. Amazingly I saw that talk filter to Rob Gronkowski who has gone through another season of injuries the latest of which landed him on IR for the remainder of the season.  It’s quite the turnaround from last year where many of those same people were saying he deserved a raise for his level of play. I know it’s easy to get caught up in the “Patriot way” of doing business which has seen superstars traded or allowed to walk in free agency without a second thought, but I don’t see that as the case here. Continue reading Looking at Rob Gronkowski’s Contract and Injuries »

2017 Contract Estimates: Sylvester Williams

As the NFL juggernaut steams toward the most exciting part of the season, General Managers are spending time formulating various virtual team roster models that stretch out as many as three years into the future, beginning with the 2017 league year. One of the important components of a roster model involves decisions revolving around unrestricted free agents.

We have followed the weekly play of interior defensive linemen that signed new contracts in 2016. Keeping with the NT/DT theme, I want to peer into the contract future of the top interior linemen that are set to become UFA’s after the 2016 season ends.

The seven gentlemen we will evaluate are a mix of 3-4 and 4-3 defense players: Nick Fairley, Johnathan Hankins, Bennie Logan, Dontari Poe, Kawann Short, Brandon Williams and Sylvester Williams.

Today’s featured subject is Denver Broncos nose tackle Sylvester Williams.

Continue reading 2017 Contract Estimates: Sylvester Williams »

Thoughts on Revis’ Contract and Future

With Darrelle Revis’ struggles becoming more pronounced by the week, his contract for next year has become a hot topic of discussion. Revis was signed in 2015 to a five year, $70 million contract with nearly $40 million in guarantees to help correct what many felt was a mistake made by the Jets in 2013.  It didn’t take long for most to notice in 2015 that this version of Revis was a far cry from the 2009/10 version that was the best defender in the NFL, but in 2016 he looks like a shell of a player. The Jets have not even finished paying the guaranteed portion of the contract but they are clearly going to have to consider moving on next year. It’s possible that this will mark the end of Revis’ career, at least as a cornerback, and should certainly mark the end of his run as the highest paid player at his position. So what are the options for Revis and the Jets?  Continue reading Thoughts on Revis’ Contract and Future »

Revisiting The Questionable QB Decisions of 2016

On Sunday I posed the question on Twitter as to what was the worst big money QB move of the offseason. I got a lot of responses and questions so I thought I would flesh that out as a post and give my opinions for what I thought were questionable contract decisions this past offseason with quarterbacks. Three to me stand out as bad and the last two are more food for thought as to approaching team building and the difficult decisions teams make. Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments on these or any other deals.

Texans Sign Brock Osweiler
Cost: $37 million in guarantees

  Continue reading Revisiting The Questionable QB Decisions of 2016 »

The Best and Worst Value Defenses in 2016

Over the last two weeks we looked at the best value teams in the NFL as well as the best value offenses and this week we will look at the best and worst values defenses. The metric’s we’ll use here to compare the team’s performance to spending will be Football Outsiders Weighted DVOA for defense and my defensive efficiency metric, which is basically the percentage a team scores above or below their specific opponent’s adjusted  average points allowed.  Punters will be included as part of the defensive spending. The following plot shows the teams spending on offense vs their performance with the size of the bubble indicating the ratio of money spent on offense vs defense. Though normally negative means a better defense I flipped the signs to make it easier to view, so in this case a higher % also means a better defense. Continue reading The Best and Worst Value Defenses in 2016 »

New Contract Tracker: Quarterbacks and Interior DL

Everyone’s eyes are now squarely fixated on Redskins General Manager Scot McCloughan.  There won’t be a NFL free agent contract signed in 2017 as interesting as the one that Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins is going to ink.

When the average person- in or out of the league- ranks NFL quarterbacks from best to worst, how far do you think they get before they spit out the name “Kirk Cousins”?  The answer is likely farther than statistics say they should.

In ten games, Cousins has completed 67.2% of his passes for 3,091 yards, with 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.  His passer rating is 98.8, which slots him 10th in the league.

In a world where Brock Osweiler makes $18M APY and is blaming laser beams for his troubles, what’s it going to take for McCLoughan to be able to re-sign a quarterback that has drained the swamp of disappointment at Redskins Park and been the primary reason why HTTR is once again a thing people say with (possibly misguided) pride?

Continue reading New Contract Tracker: Quarterbacks and Interior DL »