As a weekly feature I’ll be assigning values based on a statistics based formula to every quarterback in the NFL. The statistical output is converted into dollar figures to reflect what a performance like this in a given week is worth to a team. The excess value created by the player is the difference between his value for the week and his annual salary.
Top 3 Quarterbacks
Trevor Siemian- $20.7M
This was a banner week for John Elway whose QB gave him a 4 touchdown, 312 yard performance to earn the top spot for the week. Elway’s decision making on the QB position has been criticized, but the narrative changed big this week after Siemian’s play versus Brock Osweiler’s in a national stage game. Continue reading Most and Least Valuable Quarterbacks: Week 3 »
When I started OverTheCap back in 2013, one of my main objectives was to explain the NFL salary cap and player contract nuances in a way that had not really been touched on before. At the time, there were a lot of amateur salary cap guys (like myself) writing about their favorite teams, such as Ian Whetstone following the Pittsburgh Steelers, Miguel Benzan’s terrific work on the New England Patriots, Brian McFarland covering the Baltimore Ravens, Bryce Johnston looking at the Philadelphia Eagles, Brian McIntyre with his blog before moving on to bigger things, and the many others who tackled these issues and helped better the knowledge of bloggers and media through the years. I wanted to bring that to a wider audience.
To further that goal of reaching out to a wider audience, I collaborated with my good friend, Vijay Natarajan to co-author a book called Crunching Numbers: An Inside Look at the Salary Cap and Negotiating Player Contracts. Crunching Numbers is a twenty-three chapter, 300-page book devoted to explaining the ins and outs of the salary cap, the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), and various issues concerning player contracts. We are confident that this would fill a major void that has existed for far too long in football coverage – understanding the NFL’s most unique accounting system. Continue reading Crunching Numbers: An In Depth Look at the NFL Salary Cap »
During the offseason I did some work on valuations of a few positions and thought it might be worthwhile to look at a few of them on a weekly basis measure the value that a team is getting from their players. A player’s statistical performance is converted into a salary to attempt to put the numbers in better context. This week we’ll look at quarterbacks and see who were the best and worst players as well as those providing the most and least value this week. Continue reading Most and Least Valuable Quarterbacks: Week 2 »
Last year I was fortunate enough to be selected to judge at Tulane’s NFL mock contract negotiation competition and came away very impressed with the students who organized the event as well as the tremendous group of law students who competed last year. They have recently finalized this year’s competition dates and schools are now able to register for the competition. This past week I was able to do a Q&A with Tate Martin, who has the responsibility of running this year’s competition, to help explain the ins and outs of the competition. I strongly encourage any law students serious about pursuing a career in the NFL to read this and reach out to Tate to learn more about the competition. Hopefully I’ll be attending again this year and get to meet many of you again in person. Continue reading All About 2017’s Tulane Pro Football Negotiation Competition »
I’m going to try to share some of my notes from the weekend of watching football every week (at least most weeks) this season. These will typically just be thoughts I’ve had while watching games, so they won’t be too organized, but hopefully they can spur some thoughts for other writers to explore or just give you another perspective to think about when watching games. Some of these are objective concepts that could be addressed with analytics, while others are more subjective.
Continue reading Week 1 Thoughts and Notes »
Please read part 1 for the ranking methodology and to see the teams that rank 32 to 17.
Minnesota is decidedly average in just about every category. Their future spending prospects went down slightly with the panic addition of Sam Bradford as that puts them in a worse position in 2017 than they are this year. They track almost identical to Seattle in that if this year is good enough they probably can’t add a ton, but they have huge flexibility to create cap room. When you can create that kind of cap room through cuts you aren’t completely selling out your future, even when you trade a first round pick for a player who will backup Shaun Hill in week 1.
Continue reading Mortgaging the Future, Part II »
Every year we hear about teams mortgaging the future when it come to the salary cap. Generally what we mean when we say that is that a team is artificially lowering a player’s salary cap charge in the current year in order to maximize the talent pool on the roster. I’m not sure anyone has really tried to quantify the degree by which a team has put so much focus on a particular season, but with the regular season about to kick off I wanted to rank just how much each team has leveraged themselves to compete in the 2016 season. Continue reading Mortgaging the Future, Part I »