With the 2020 regular season having come to a close for the Houston Texans (as well any 2020 game for Houston finished), all eyes now move towards the 2021 offseason. The organization is looking to hire a new General Manager and Head Coach. The new regime will be tasked with rebuilding the roster, along with repairing the team salary cap. Copious amounts of damage left behind from the short lived Bill O’Brien GM era. The team has two savings factors for any incoming front office: Deshaun Watson and quality book end offensive tackles.
For this article we will use $176 million as the league salary cap for the numbers. Unfortunately, the league will not announce the league cap until the middle of March. This generally occurs a few days prior to the start of the new league year. The 2021 league year begins at 4pm EST on March 17, 2021. The annual team adjustment is unknown at this point, expect that information to be leaked by media in the coming weeks.
2021 Cap Space
The team has recently completed the signing of future’s contracts, leaving the team with 54 number of player contracts for 2021 on the books; expectations are more future contracts are coming this week. With the 54 contracts, the team currently has approximately $202.98 million (Top 51 rule) in cap commitments for 2021. The team will roll over approximately $9.6 million of remaining 2020 cap dollars over to 2021. Absent the annual adjustment, the Texans will have approximately ($17.73) million, yes negative, in cap space to begin the offseason. While the team is currently projected over the salary cap, the need to be cap compliant is not due until March 17. There are available roster moves to get the team within compliance.
The new regime will examine the roster top to bottom for potential savings or adjustment. With any new regime, this means almost every player is available for some sort of transaction, the new front office will be not “married” to any player. At this point the only untouchable players are Deshaun Watson (QB), Laremy Tunsil (OT) and Tytus Howard (OT). As with any new General Managers it is difficult to project potential roster management without a clear history to reference.
The Texans finished the 2020 league year as the top team in cash spending on the roster, spending just over $250 million. This is a rare place for Houston as the team is generally in the bottom third of cash spending year over year. The heavy cash spending in 2020 could lead to a pull back of spending in 2021 to assist in balancing out the salary cap.
The 2021 league year will need to be a year of low cost veteran contracts and cost controlled rookies or 1/2 year experience players on minimum deals. The team has limited draft capital, and will likely sign a large undrafted class in hopes of landing 1 or 2 prospects.
Pending Free Agents
The Texans have a large group of pending free agents, however only a few players are heavy contributors for playing time. Below is the list of free agents and an opinion on how the team may proceed.
Resign (UFA)
Let Walk (UFA)
Restricted Free Agents
ROFR (right of first refusal) tentatively worth $2,133,000.
Exclusive Rights Free Agents
ERFA’s are prohibited from negotiating with other teams until March 17, 2021. The team will need to sign/tender the player by this date. Expect the team to tender all ERFA’s.
Proven Performance Escalator
Justin Reid (S) and Jordan Akins (TE) received a salary increase for playing time under the proven performance escalator; Reid received the Level 2 increase and Akins received the Level 1 increase. The Texans do not have any other 2018 draft picks eligible for the PPE.
If the above player re-signings and salary adjustments are completed the team will have (x) contracts on the 2021 cap with ($x) available in cap space. Now we turn our attention to ways the team can shed cap and cash for the 2021 league year. Cap savings listed after gross savings, not net after Top 51 replacement.
Potential Releases (amounts do not reflect net savings under Top 51 rule)
The team could also look at veterans Senio Kelemete (OG) and Darren Fells (TE) for potential release. However both contracts have minimal savings when compared to replacement cost.
Potential Trades
Potential Extensions & Restructures
The team does not have any potential contract extension players beyond Justin Reid and Jordan Akins. The new general manager will likely expect both players to finish out their rookie contracts as the team builds their plans for 2022.
Difficult Contracts
What Does it All Mean?
If the above transactions are completed the team could realize a net cap savings of $29.74 million, placing the team near $12 million under the cap. This does not include any potential transaction with Nick Martin.
Player | Transaction | Cap Created (mil) | Cap Saved (mil) |
W. Fuller | Sign | $11.00m | |
T. Adams | Sign | $0.95m | |
R. Johnson | Sign | $2.50m | |
P. Hall | Sign | $0.85m | |
A. Moore | Tender | $2.13m | |
P. Brown | Sign | $0.85m | |
G. Stone | Tender | $0.78m | |
Total Created | $19.06m | ||
B. McKinney | Release | $7.00m | |
D. Johnson | Release | $6.90m | |
Z. Fulton | Release | $3.00m | |
Du. Johnson | Release | $5.15m | |
B. Dunn | Release | $3.25m | |
B. Cooks | Restructure | $6.00m | |
J. Watt | Trade | $17.50m | |
Total Saved | $48.80 | ||
Net Savings | $29.74 |
The the organization will need to manage the 2021 league year with low cost contracts via veteran minimums and rookie/low experience players as they rebuild the salary cap and roster for 2022. Absent the players listed above the core of the roster is well defined. Certain contracts are what they are, and will have to continue to utilize those players as best as can be done until they become moveable. This pertains to Whitney Mercilus, Randall Cobb, and Eric Murray.
-TC
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