Categories: Expected Contract Value

Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts (Offense)

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Quarterbacks:

Josh McCown
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	89.2%	—	$5,250,000
2016	$3,375,000	23.3%	$786,375	$1,000,000
2017	$4,375,000	5.8%	$253,750	—
Subtotal			$1,040,125	$6,250,000
Total			$7,290,125

Mark Sanchez
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	97.3%	—	$4,500,000
2016	$3,500,000	45.5%	$1,592,500	$1,000,000
Subtotal			$1,592,500	$5,500,000
Total			$7,092,500

Brian Hoyer
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$500,000	92.9%	$464,500	$4,750,000
2016	$5,250,000	29.4%	$1,543,500	—
Subtotal			$2,008,000	$4,750,000
Total			$6,758,000

Ryan Mallett
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,750,000	92.0%	$1,610,000	$1,750,000
2016	$3,500,000	41.0%	$1,435,000	—
Subtotal			$3,045,000	$1,750,000
Total			$4,795,000

Shaun Hill
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$50,000	76.1%	$38,050	$3,200,000
2016	$3,250,000	8.2%	$266,500	—
Subtotal			$304,550	$3,200,000
Total			$3,504,550

Blaine Gabbert
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,500,000	88.5%	$1,327,500	$500,000
2016	$2,000,000	55.6%	$1,112,000	—
Subtotal			$2,439,500	$500,000
Total			$2,939,500

Running Backs:

DeMarco Murray
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.9%	—	$9,000,000
2016	—	98.2%	—	$7,000,000
2017	$6,000,000	74.7%	$4,482,000	$2,000,000
2018	$8,000,000	36.0%	$2,880,000	—
2019	$8,000,000	25.7%	$2,056,000	—
Subtotal			$9,418,000	$18,000,000
Total			$27,418,000

Mark Ingram
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$100,000	99.9%	$99,900	$4,600,000
2016	$1,600,000	95.3%	$1,524,800	$1,500,000
2017	$3,600,000	66.2%	$2,383,200	—
2018	$4,600,000	40.2%	$1,849,200	—
Subtotal			$5,857,100	$6,100,000
Total			$11,957,100

Shane Vereen
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$100,000	98.7%	$98,700	$4,750,000
2016	$3,750,000	74.1%	$2,778,750	—
2017	$3,750,000	46.8%	$1,755,000	—
Subtotal			$4,632,450	$4,750,000
Total			$9,382,450

Frank Gore
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,000,000	96.4%	$964,000	$3,500,000
2016	$1,000,000	67.2%	$672,000	$3,000,000
2017	$3,500,000	14.3%	$500,500	—
Subtotal			$2,136,500	$6,500,000
Total			$8,636,500

Ryan Matthews
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.4%	—	$4,000,000
2016	$2,000,000	82.2%	$1,644,000	$1,000,000
2017	$4,000,000	35.9%	$1,436,000	—
Subtotal			$3,080,000	$5,000,000
Total			$8,080,000

Jerome Felton
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$100,000	98.8%	$98,800	$3,600,000
2016	$1,650,000	79.3%	$1,308,450	—
2017	$1,850,000	46.6%	$862,100	—
2018	$2,000,000	24.8%	$496,000	—
Subtotal			$2,765,350	$3,600,000
Total			$6,365,350

Justin Forsett
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	97.8%	—	$3,000,000
2016	$3,000,000	52.3%	$1,569,000	—
2017	$3,000,000	26.6%	$798,000	—
Subtotal			$2,367,000	$3,000,000
Total			$5,367,000

Wide Receivers:

Jeremy Maclin
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$250,000	100.0%	$250,000	$12,750,000
2016	$250,000	97.8%	$244,500	$9,750,000
2017	$10,000,000	68.3%	$6,830,000	—
2018	$11,000,000	40.0%	$4,400,000	—
2019	$11,000,000	26.5%	$2,915,000	—
Subtotal			$14,639,500	$22,500,000
Total			$37,139,500

Randall Cobb
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$2,100,000	99.6%	$2,091,600	$13,000,000
2016	$5,900,000	93.8%	$5,534,200	—
2017	$9,500,000	68.6%	$6,517,000	—
2018	$9,500,000	46.1%	$4,379,500	—
Subtotal			$18,522,300	$13,000,000
Total			$31,522,300

Torrey Smith
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,250,000	99.5%	$1,243,750	$8,750,000
2016	$6,000,000	91.4%	$5,484,000	—
2017	$8,000,000	70.1%	$5,608,000	—
2018	$8,000,000	45.5%	$3,640,000	—
2019	$8,000,000	31.7%	$2,536,000	—
Subtotal			$18,511,750	$8,750,000
Total			$27,261,750

Dwayne Harris
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$25,000	99.9%	$24,975	$4,975,000
2016	$875,000	96.7%	$846,125	$2,125,000
2017	$3,000,000	70.5%	$2,115,000	—
2018	$3,250,000	42.4%	$1,378,000	—
2019	$3,250,000	28.1%	$913,250	—
Subtotal			$5,277,350	$7,100,000
Total			$12,377,350

Andre Johnson
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	92.9%	—	$7,500,000
2016	$2,500,000	37.6%	$940,000	$2,500,000
2017	$6,000,000	9.2%	$552,000	—
Subtotal			$1,492,000	$10,000,000
Total			$11,492,000

Eddie Royal
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.1%	—	$5,500,000
2016	—	86.9%	—	$4,500,000
2017	$5,000,000	24.3%	$1,215,000	—
Subtotal			$1,215,000	$10,000,000
Total			$11,215,000

Brian Hartline
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	95.8%	—	$3,000,000
2016	$3,000,000	37.9%	—	—
Subtotal			$1,137,000	$3,000,000
Total			$4,137,000

Ted Ginn
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,000,000	84.5%	$845,000	$1,700,000
2016	$1,500,000	34.6%	$519,000	—
Subtotal			$1,364,000	$1,700,000
Total			$3,064,000

Jacoby Jones
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$900,000	82.0%	$738,000	$1,600,000
2016	$3,000,000	20.7%	$621,000	—
Subtotal			$1,359,000	$1,600,000
Total			$2,959,000

Tight Ends:

Julius Thomas
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$100,000	99.6%	$99,600	$15,000,000
2016	$100,000	97.0%	$97,000	$6,000,000
2017	$7,100,000	65.6%	$4,657,600	—
2018	$8,600,000	37.9%	$3,259,400	—
2019	$9,100,000	26.0%	$2,366,000	—
Subtotal			$10,479,600	$21,000,000
Total			$31,479,600

Lance Kendricks
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	98.9%	—	$5,500,000
2016	$3,250,000	86.5%	$2,811,250	$1,250,000
2017	$4,250,000	58.3%	$2,477,750	—
2018	$4,250,000	30.9%	$1,313,250	—
Subtotal			$6,602,250	$6,750,000
Total			$13,352,250

Owen Daniels
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,750,000	86.0%	$1,505,000	$3,000,000
2016	$3,500,000	38.0%	$1,330,000	—
2017	$4,000,000	14.7%	$588,000	—
Subtotal			$3,423,000	$3,000,000
Total			$6,423,000

Lee Smith
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$250,000	97.6%	$244,000	$3,100,000
2016	$2,750,000	71.5%	$1,966,250	—
2017	$3,250,000	34.1%	$1,108,250	—
Subtotal			$3,318,500	$3,100,000
Total			$6,418,500

Virgil Green
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	98.3%	—	$3,200,000
2016	$2,400,000	66.2%	$1,588,800	—
2017	$2,800,000	37.2%	$1,041,600	—
Subtotal			$2,630,400	$3,200,000
Total			$5,830,500

Ed Dickson
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$850,000	95.9%	$815,150	$2,000,000
2016	$1,900,000	65.7%	$1,248,300	—
2017	$2,050,000	34.7%	$711,350	—
Subtotal			$2,774,800	$2,000,000
Total			$4,774,800

Niles Paul
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$250,000	98.3%	$245,750	$2,250,000
2016	$1,500,000	73.7%	$1,105,500	—
2017	$2,000,000	43.3%	$866,000	—
Subtotal			$2,217,250	$2,250,000
Total			$4,467,250

Offensive Tackles:

Bryan Bulaga
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$2,000,000	99.3%	$1,986,000	$8,000,000
2016	$4,000,000	94.4%	$3,776,000	—
2017	$6,250,000	74.3%	$4,643,750	—
2018	$6,750,000	47.1%	$3,179,250	—
2019	$6,750,000	32.0%	$2,160,000	—
Subtotal			$15,745,000	$8,000,000
Total			$23,745,000

Jeremy Parnell
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.5%	—	$8,000,000
2016	—	94.4%	—	$6,500,000
2017	$6,500,000	56.5%	$3,672,500	—
2018	$5,000,000	38.1%	$1,905,000	—
2019	$6,000,000	16.9%	$1,014,000	—
Subtotal			$6,591,500	$14,500,000
Total			$21,091,500

Derek Newton
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.7%	—	$7,500,000
2016	$2,250,000	93.4%	$2,101,500	$2,500,000
2017	$4,750,000	67.9%	$3,225,250	—
2018	$4,750,000	44.8%	$2,128,000	—
2019	$4,750,000	32.6%	$1,548,500	—
Subtotal			$9,003,250	$10,000,000
Total			$19,003,250

King Dunlap
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$500,000	98.5%	$492,500	$8,500,000
2016	$5,000,000	77.5%	$3,875,000	—
2017	$6,750,000	39.6%	$2,673,000	—
2018	$7,250,000	21.3%	$1,544,250	—
Subtotal			$8,584,750	$8,500,000
Total			$17,084,750

Doug Free
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	96.9%	—	$6,000,000
2016	$4,000,000	48.4%	$1,936,000	—
2017	$5,000,000	18.2%	$910,000	—
Subtotal			$2,846,000	$6,000,000
Total			$8,846,000

Joe Reitz
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,750,000	88.9%	$1,555,750	$1,500,000
2016	$2,250,000	54.6%	$1,228,500	—
2017	$2,500,000	20.9%	$522,500	—
Subtotal			$3,306,750	$1,500,000
Total			$4,806,750

Michael Oher
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,250,000	89.0%	$1,112,500	$2,500,000
2016	$3,250,000	34.6%	$1,124,500	—
Subtotal			$2,237,000	$2,500,000
Total			$4,737,000

Interior Lineman:

Rodney Hudson
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$400,000	98.8%	$395,200	$12,600,000
2016	$7,700,000	89.4%	$6,883,800	—
2017	$6,850,000	77.9%	$5,336,150	—
2018	$8,350,000	53.5%	$4,467,250	—
2019	$8,600,000	30.0%	$2,580,000	—
Subtotal			$19,662,400	$12,600,000
Total			$32,262,400

Orlando Franklin
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.9%	—	$10,000,000
2016	—	97.2%	—	$5,500,000
2017	$6,000,000	62.9%	$3,774,000	—
2018	$6,750,000	34.4%	$2,322,000	—
2019	$7,250,000	21.3%	$1,544,250	—
Subtotal			$7,640,250	$15,500,000
Total			$23,140,250

Clint Boling
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$2,100,000	98.2%	$2,062,200	$5,000,000
2016	$4,250,000	84.9%	$3,608,250	—
2017	$4,450,000	66.2%	$2,945,900	—
2018	$4,950,000	41.9%	$2,074,050	—
2019	$5,250,000	30.4%	$1,596,000	—
Subtotal			$12,286,400	$5,000,000
Total			$17,286,400

James Carpenter
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.1%	—	$5,000,000
2016	$4,700,000	77.8%	$3,656,600	—
2017	$4,700,000	53.5%	$2,514,500	—
2018	$4,700,000	37.1%	$1,743,700	—
Subtotal			$7,914,800	$5,000,000
Total			$12,914,800

Specialists:

Brett Kern
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.5%	—	$4,000,000
2016	$1,200,000	91.2%	$1,094,400	$1,000,000
2017	$2,800,000	51.4%	$1,439,200	—
2018	$3,000,000	26.7%	$801,000	—
2019	$3,000,000	17.4%	$522,000	—
Subtotal			$3,856,600	$5,000,000
Total			$8,856,600

Matt Prater
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,250,000	79.5%	$993,750	$750,000
2016	$2,500,000	35.2%	$880,000	—
2017	$3,700,000	12.7%	$469,900	—
Subtotal			$2,343,650	$750,000
Total			$3,093,650

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.