Categories: Expected Contract Value

Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts (Defense)

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Defensive Lineman:

Ndamukong Suh
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$15,000	100.0%	$15,000	$26,485,000
2016	$15,000	99.0%	$14,850	$23,485,000
2017	$15,000	94.8%	$14,220	$9,985,000
2018	$17,000,000	50.5%	$8,585,000	—
2019	$19,000,000	34.0%	$6,460,000	—
2020	$18,360,000	16.6%	$3,047,760	—
Subtotal			$18,136,830	$59,955,000
Total			$78,091,830

Jared Odrick
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.7%	—	$9,000,000
2016	—	96.6%	—	$8,000,000
2017	$8,500,000	68.8%	$5,848,000	—
2018	$8,500,000	45.7%	$3,884,500	—
2019	$8,500,000	24.3%	$2,065,500	—
Subtotal			$11,798,000	$17,000,000
Total			$28,798,000

Dan Williams
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$150,000	99.6%	$149,400	$7,850,000
2016	$150,000	93.5%	$140,250	$7,350,000
2017	$4,500,000	56.5%	$2,542,500	—
2018	$5,000,000	28.1%	$1,405,000	—
Subtotal			$4,237,150	$15,200,000
Total			$19,437,150

Stephen Paea
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$150,000	99.1%	$148,650	$7,850,000
2016	$3,450,000	85.9%	$2,963,550	—
2017	$4,550,000	55.5%	$2,525,250	—
2018	$5,000,000	33.1%	$1,655,000	—
Subtotal			$7,292,450	$7,850,000
Total			$15,142,450

Kendall Langford
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$2,500,000	92.8%	$2,320,000	$2,500,000
2016	$4,000,000	57.1%	$2,284,000	—
2017	$4,000,000	32.7%	$1,308,000	—
2018	$4,200,000	20.9%	$877,800	—
Subtotal			$6,789,800	$2,500,000
Total			$9,289,800

Corey Peters
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$200,000	98.2%	$196,400	$4,000,000
2016	$1,950,000	73.5%	$1,433,250	—
2017	$2,850,000	37.1%	$1,057,350	—
Subtotal			$2,687,000	$4,000,000
Total			$6,687,000

Tyson Alualu
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	95.2%	—	$3,000,000
2016	$1,750,000	51.0%	$892,500	$1,250,000
Subtotal			$892,500	$4,250,000
Total			$5,142,500

Tom Johnson
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$50,000	94.1%	$47,050	$2,250,000
2016	$2,350,000	44.4%	$1,043,400	—
2017	$2,350,000	16.0%	$376,000	—
Subtotal			$1,466,450	$2,250,000
Total			$3,716,450

Darnell Dockett
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$2,000,000	64.9%	$1,298,000	$2,000,000
2016	$3,500,000	10.9%	$381,500	—
Subtotal			$1,679,500	$2,000,000
Total			$3,679,500

Cory Redding
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,000,000	69.3%	$690,000	$2,000,000
2016	$3,000,000	11.9%	$357,000	—
Subtotal			$1,047,000	$2,000,000
Total			$3,047,500

Pass Rushers:

Jerry Hughes
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$150,000	99.7%	$149,550	$11,625,000
2016	$4,675,000	97.0%	$4,534,750	$6,000,000
2017	$7,550,000	76.6%	$5,783,300	—
2018	$7,500,000	48.3%	$3,622,500	—
2019	$7,500,000	30.1%	$2,257,500	—
Subtotal			$16,347,600	$17,625,000
Total			$33,972,600

Pernell McPhee
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$175,000	99.0%	$173,250	$8,500,000
2016	$7,175,000	80.7%	$5,790,225	—
2017	$7,325,000	61.2%	$4,482,900	—
2018	$7,575,000	39.7%	$3,007,275	—
2019	$8,000,000	29.6%	$2,368,000	—
Subtotal			$15,821,650	$8,500,000
Total			$24,321,650

Brandon Graham
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.6%	—	$9,000,000
2016	—	96.0%	—	$4,000,000
2017	$6,500,000	47.8%	$3,107,000	—
2018	$6,500,000	31.2%	$2,028,000	—
Subtotal			$5,135,000	$13,000,000
Total			$18,135,000

Brian Orakpo
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$500,000	98.0%	$490,000	$8,000,000
2016	$7,000,000	66.5%	$4,655,000	—
2017	$7,750,000	35.7%	$2,766,750	—
2018	$7,750,000	21.4%	$1,658,500	—
Subtotal			$9,570,250	$8,000,000
Total			$17,570,250

Brooks Reed
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.5%	—	$6,900,000
2016	$2,500,000	92.4%	$2,310,000	—
2017	$4,100,000	67.7%	$2,775,700	—
2018	$4,500,000	39.6%	$1,782,000	—
2019	$4,500,000	26.5%	$1,192,500	—
Subtotal			$8,060,200	$6,900,000
Total			$14,960,200

Bruce Carter
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	98.4%	—	$4,250,000
2016	$4,250,000	80.2%	$3,408,500	—
2017	$4,250,000	56.5%	$2,401,250	—
2018	$4,250,000	29.4%	$1,249,500	—
Subtotal			$7,059,250	$4,250,000
Total			$11,309,250

Trent Cole
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	88.3%	—	$7,750,000
2016	$6,250,000	18.9%	$1,181,250	—
Subtotal			$1,181,250	$7,750,000
Total			$8,931,250

Jabaal Sheard
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,000,000	96.6%	$966,000	$5,000,000
2016	$5,000,000	54.0%	$2,700,000	—
Subtotal			$3,666,000	$5,000,000
Total			$8,666,000

Arthur Moats
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$850,000	96.6%	$821,100	$1,900,000
2016	$2,500,000	65.4%	$1,635,000	—
2017	$2,250,000	40.5%	$911,250	—
Subtotal			$3,367,350	$1,900,000
Total			$5,267,350

Linebackers:

David Harris
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	98.8%	—	$7,500,000
2016	—	79.6%	—	$7,500,000
2017	$6,500,000	17.3%	$1,124,500	—
Subtotal			$1,124,500	$15,000,000
Total			$16,124,500

JT Thomas
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$25,000	99.2%	$24,800	$3,975,000
2016	$2,475,000	76.9%	$1,903,275	$525,000
2017	$3,000,000	40.9%	$1,227,000	—
Subtotal			$3,155,075	$4,500,000
Total			$7,655,075

Justin Durant
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$3,250,000	79.8%	$2,593,500	$1,250,000
2016	$3,000,000	51.4%	$1,542,000	—
2017	$3,300,000	27.2%	$897,600	—
Subtotal			$5,033,100	$1,250,000
Total			$6,283,100

Malcolm Smith
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$250,000	97.1%	$242,750	$3,750,000
2016	$3,000,000	54.7%	$1,641,000	—
Subtotal			$1,883,750	$3,750,000
Total			$5,633,750

Josh Mauga
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,000,000	95.7%	$957,000	$2,250,000
2016	$2,000,000	68.0%	$1,360,000	—
2017	$3,000,000	30.3%	$909,000	—
Subtotal			$3,226,000	$2,250,000
Total			$5,476,000

Jonathan Casillas
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$25,000	98.2%	$24,550	$2,975,000
2016	$2,500,000	61.1%	$1,527,500	—
2017	$2,500,000	33.6%	$840,000	—
Subtotal			$2,392,050	$2,975,000
Total			$5,367,050

Cornerbacks:

Darrelle Revis
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.7%	—	$16,000,000
2016	—	95.9%	—	$17,000,000
2017	$9,000,000	64.8%	$5,832,000	$6,000,000
2018	$11,000,000	32.2%	$3,542,000	—
2019	$11,000,000	15.3%	$1,683,000	—
Subtotal			$11,057,000	$39,000,000
Total			$50,057,000

Byron Maxwell
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.8%	—	$13,500,000
2016	—	97.8%	—	$8,500,000
2017	$10,500,000	63.6%	$6,678,000	—
2018	$10,000,000	42.6%	$4,260,000	—
2019	$9,750,000	25.5%	$2,486,250	—
2020	$10,750,000	19.6%	$2,107,000	—
Subtotal			$15,531,250	$22,000,000
Total			$37,531,250

Kareem Jackson
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$250,000	99.8%	$249,500	$14,000,000
2016	$250,000	96.5%	$241,250	$6,000,000
2017	$6,750,000	58.9%	$3,975,750	—
2018	$6,750,000	37.2%	$2,511,000	—
Subtotal			$6,977,500	$20,000,000
Total			$26,977,500

Brandon Flowers
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.9%	—	$10,250,000
2016	—	94.0%	—	$7,750,000
2017	$9,000,000	38.4%	$3,456,000	—
2018	$9,400,000	21.3%	$2,002,200	—
Subtotal			$5,458,200	$18,000,000
Total			$23,458,200

Chris Culliver
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.9%	—	$8,000,000
2016	—	95.9%	—	$8,000,000
2017	$8,000,000	47.9%	$3,832,000	—
2018	$8,000,000	31.2%	$2,496,000	—
Subtotal			$6,328,000	$16,000,000
Total			$22,328,000

Buster Skrine
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.9%	—	$6,500,000
2016	—	96.6%	—	$6,500,000
2017	$6,000,000	53.7%	$3,222,000	—
2018	$6,000,000	37.5%	$2,250,000	—
Subtotal			$5,472,000	$13,000,000
Total			$18,472,000

Davon House
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.5%	—	$6,500,000
2016	$2,500,000	93.0%	$2,325,000	$3,500,000
2017	$6,000,000	63.1%	$3,786,000	—
2018	$6,000,000	35.4%	$2,124,000	—
Subtotal			$8,235,000	$10,000,000
Total			$18,235,000

Cary Williams
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	96.6%	—	$7,000,000
2016	$5,000,000	49.0%	$2,450,000	—
2017	$6,000,000	21.7%	$1,302,000	—
Subtotal			$3,752,000	$7,000,000
Total			$10,752,000

Brandon Browner
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.3%	—	$5,000,000
2016	$2,250,000	67.8%	$1,525,500	$2,750,000
2017	$5,000,000	18.3%	$915,000	—
Subtotal			$2,440,500	$7,750,000
Total			$10,190,500

Brice McCain
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,000,000	91.3%	$913,000	$2,000,000
2016	$2,500,000	41.2%	$1,030,000	—
Subtotal			$1,943,000	$2,000,000
Total			$3,943,000

Safeties:

Devin McCourty
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$500,000	99.9%	$499,500	$17,500,000
2016	$500,000	98.1%	$490,500	$4,500,000
2017	$7,000,000	74.3%	$5,201,000	—
2018	$8,000,000	42.5%	$3,400,000	—
2019	$9,500,000	22.5%	$2,137,500	—
Subtotal			$11,728,500	$22,000,000
Total			$33,728,500

Da’Norris Searcy
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.3%	—	$7,000,000
2016	$5,000,000	83.6%	$4,180,000	—
2017	$5,625,000	57.3%	$3,223,125	—
2018	$6,125,000	36.6%	$2,241,750	—
Subtotal			$9,644,875	$7,000,000
Total			$16,644,875

Nate Allen
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$100,000	99.0%	$99,000	$6,900,000
2016	$5,000,000	78.3%	$3,915,000	—
2017	$6,000,000	47.5%	$2,850,000	—
2018	$5,000,000	34.4%	$1,720,000	—
Subtotal			$8,584,000	$6,900,000
Total			$15,484,000

Rahim Moore
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,000,000	98.5%	$985,000	$4,000,000
2016	$3,350,000	79.3%	$2,656,550	—
2017	$3,650,000	52.8%	$1,927,200	—
Subtotal			$5,568,750	$4,000,000
Total			$9,568,750

Antrel Rolle
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$100,000	92.2%	$92,200	$4,900,000
2016	$3,000,000	42.8%	$1,284,000	—
2017	$3,250,000	14.4%	$468,000	—
Subtotal			$1,844,200	$4,900,000
Total			$6,744,200

Sergio Brown
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,500,000	94.5%	$1,417,500	$1,000,000
2016	$2,250,000	69.9%	$1,572,750	—
2017	$2,250,000	35.7%	$803,250	—
Subtotal			$3,793,500	$1,000,000
Total			$4,793,500

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.