Categories: Uncategorized

Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Offensive Lineman

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

Player Nominal Value ECV % Expected ECV/Year
Rodney Hudson $44,500,000 $32,262,400 72% $6,452,480
Mike Iupati $40,000,000 $23,975,000 60% $4,795,000
Bryan Bulaga $33,750,000 $23,745,000 70% $4,749,000
Orlando Franklin $35,500,000 $23,140,250 65% $4,628,050
Jeremy Parnell $32,000,000 $21,091,500 66% $4,218,300
Derek Newton $26,500,000 $19,003,250 72% $3,800,650
Clint Boling $26,000,000 $17,286,400 66% $3,457,280
King Dunlap $28,000,000 $17,084,750 61% $4,271,187
James Carpenter $19,100,000 $12,914,800 68% $3,228,700
Doug Free $15,000,000 $8,846,000 59% $2,948,667
Joe Reitz $8,000,000 $4,806,750 60% $1,602,250
Michael Oher $7,000,000 $4,737,000 68% $2,368,500
Paul Fanaika $6,150,000 $4,015,800 65% $1,338,600
Shelley Smith $4,250,000 $2,689,000 63% $1,344,500
Erik Pears $4,700,000 $2,294,200 49% $1,147,100
OL Total: 65.9%
Global Total (122 Free Agents): 67.5%
Notable One-Year Contracts:
Todd Herremans:   $2,250,000 ($1,000,000 guaranteed)
 
Player First Likely Cut Year Dead Money Remaining
Rodney Hudson 2019 (30%)* $0**
Mike Iupati 2018 (31%) $2,400,000
Bryan Bulaga 2018 (47%) $3,200,000
Orlando Franklin 2018 (34%) $2,800,000
Jeremy Parnell 2018 (38%) $0
Derek Newton 2018 (45%) $1,500,000
Clint Boling 2018 (42%) $1,000,000
King Dunlap 2017 (40%) $3,250,000
James Carpenter 2018 (37%) $875,000
Doug Free 2016 (48%) $3,000,000
Joe Reitz 2017 (21%) $0
Michael Oher 2016 (35%) $1,250,000
Paul Fanaika 2017 (27%) $583,333
Shelley Smith 2016 (36%) $500,000
Erik Pears 2016 (15%) $250,000
 

*Refers to the likelihood that the player will remain under contract in the given season.  This column displays the first season where the likelihood falls below 50%.

**Refers to the amount of dead money that the team will incur upon releasing the player in the season identified in the second column.

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

Share
Published by
Bryce Johnston

Recent Posts

Valuing the 2nd Round Trades of the 2024 NFL Draft

With the second round of the 2024 draft in the books I wanted to go…

1 day ago

Valuing the 1st Round Trades in the 2024 NFL Draft

With the first round of the 2024 draft in the books I wanted to go…

2 days ago

Premium Content: NFL Draft Summary Data

For those who are premium subscribers I put together a pdf file breaking down the…

3 days ago

2024 Projected UDFA Class Sizes

With only a few days before the 2024 NFL Draft, it's that time again to…

6 days ago

NFL Drafting Strategies

Every year as the draft approaches I like to look at different trends over the…

6 days ago

OTC Podcast: April 20, 2024

In this week's OTC Podcast: Devonta Smith signs a huge extension Eagles salary cap strategies…

6 days ago