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Expected Contract Value Calculations: Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Lane Johnson & Vinny Curry

Expected Contract Value calculations (using ECV 1.1) for the first handful of large contracts signed this offseason:

Zach Ertz
Stated Value: $43,638,527
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2016	—	99.6%	—	$9,138,527
2017	—	97.6%	—	$4,000,000
2018	$8,000,000	91.8%	$7,345,914	—
2019	$7,500,000	60.0%	$4,502,508	—
2020	$7,250,000	42.6%	$3,085,812	—
2021	$7,750,000	30.9%	$2,392,200	—
Subtotal		—	$17,326,433	$13,138,527
Expected Contract Value:			$30,464,960 (70%)

Zach Ertz
Year	Cap Number	Probability	Dead Money	Probability	Expected Cap Number
2016	$3,311,563	99.6%	$13,711,563	0.4%	$3,353,163
2017	$5,600,000	97.6%	$10,400,000	2.4%	$5,715,200
2018	$9,600,000	91.8%	$10,600,000	8.2%	$9,682,000
2019	$9,100,000	60.0%	$3,200,000	40.0%	$6,740,000
2020	$8,850,000	42.6%	$1,600,000	57.4%	$4,688,500
2021	$7,750,000	30.9%	$0	69.1%	$2,394,750
Total:					$32,573,613

Travis Kelce
Stated Value: $47,646,000
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2016	$129,000	98.8%	$127,426	$10,517,000
2017	$3,450,000	94.7%	$3,265,951	—
2018	$8,050,000	74.7%	$6,017,178	—
2019	$8,000,000	57.1%	$4,569,585	—
2020	$8,500,000	34.8%	$2,955,665	—
2021	$9,000,000	24.5%	$2,205,892	—
Subtotal		—	$19,141,696	$10,517,000
Expected Contract Value:			$29,658,696 (62%)

Travis Kelce
Year	Cap Number	Probability	Dead Money	Probability	Expected Cap Number
2016	$2,948,226	98.8%	$10,692,826	1.2%	$3,041,161
2017	$5,418,400	94.7%	$7,873,600	5.3%	$5,548,526
2018	$10,018,400	74.7%	$5,905,200	25.3%	$8,977,761
2019	$9,968,400	57.1%	$3,936,800	42.9%	$7,380,843
2020	$10,468,400	34.8%	$1,968,000	65.2%	$4,926,139
2021	$9,000,000	24.5%	$0	75.5%	$2,205,000
Total:					$32,079,430

Lane Johnson
Stated Value: $59,362,242
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2016	—	99.4%	—	$13,112,242
2017	$250,000	97.7%	$244,209	$7,750,000
2018	$10,250,000	86.8%	$8,896,731	—
2019	$10,850,000	72.5%	$7,865,301	—
2020	$8,835,000	57.9%	$5,113,729	—
2021	$8,315,000	43.0%	$3,573,326	—
Subtotal		—	$25,693,297	$20,862,242
Expected Contract Value:			$46,555,539 (78%)

Lane Johnson
Year	Cap Number	Probability	Dead Money	Probability	Expected Cap Number
2016	$8,128,388	99.4%	$20,862,242	0.6%	$8,204,791
2017	$10,000,000	97.7%	$15,750,000	2.3%	$10,132,250
2018	$12,250,000	86.8%	$6,000,000	13.2%	$11,425,000
2019	$12,850,000	72.5%	$4,000,000	27.5%	$10,416,250
2020	$10,835,000	57.9%	$2,000,000	42.1%	$7,115,465
2021	$8,315,000	43.0%	$0	57.0%	$3,575,450
Total:					$50,869,206

Vinny Curry
Stated Value: $46,250,000
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2016	—	99.4%	—	$11,000,000
2017	—	96.0%	—	$7,000,000
2018	$9,000,000	72.0%	$6,483,211	—
2019	$9,250,000	47.9%	$4,427,033	—
2020	$10,000,000	23.4%	$2,339,896	—
Subtotal		—	$13,250,140	$18,000,000
Expected Contract Value:			$31,250,140 (68%)

Vinny Curry
Year	Cap Number	Probability	Dead Money	Probability	Expected Cap Number
2016	$3,000,000	99.4%	$18,000,000	0.6%	$3,090,000
2017	$9,000,000	96.0%	$15,000,000	4.0%	$9,240,000
2018	$11,000,000	72.0%	$6,000,000	28.0%	$9,600,000
2019	$11,250,000	47.9%	$4,000,000	52.1%	$7,472,750
2020	$12,000,000	23.4%	$2,000,000	76.6%	$4,340,000
Total:					$33,742,750

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a junior at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu