Expected Contract Value calculations (using ECV 1.1) for the first handful of large contracts signed this offseason:
| Zach Ertz |
| Stated Value: $43,638,527 |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2016 | — | 99.6% | — | $9,138,527 |
| 2017 | — | 97.6% | — | $4,000,000 |
| 2018 | $8,000,000 | 91.8% | $7,345,914 | — |
| 2019 | $7,500,000 | 60.0% | $4,502,508 | — |
| 2020 | $7,250,000 | 42.6% | $3,085,812 | — |
| 2021 | $7,750,000 | 30.9% | $2,392,200 | — |
| Subtotal | — | $17,326,433 | $13,138,527 |
| Expected Contract Value: | $30,464,960 (70%) |
| Zach Ertz |
| Year | Cap Number | Probability | Dead Money | Probability | Expected Cap Number |
| 2016 | $3,311,563 | 99.6% | $13,711,563 | 0.4% | $3,353,163 |
| 2017 | $5,600,000 | 97.6% | $10,400,000 | 2.4% | $5,715,200 |
| 2018 | $9,600,000 | 91.8% | $10,600,000 | 8.2% | $9,682,000 |
| 2019 | $9,100,000 | 60.0% | $3,200,000 | 40.0% | $6,740,000 |
| 2020 | $8,850,000 | 42.6% | $1,600,000 | 57.4% | $4,688,500 |
| 2021 | $7,750,000 | 30.9% | $0 | 69.1% | $2,394,750 |
| Total: | | | | $32,573,613 |
| Travis Kelce |
| Stated Value: $47,646,000 |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2016 | $129,000 | 98.8% | $127,426 | $10,517,000 |
| 2017 | $3,450,000 | 94.7% | $3,265,951 | — |
| 2018 | $8,050,000 | 74.7% | $6,017,178 | — |
| 2019 | $8,000,000 | 57.1% | $4,569,585 | — |
| 2020 | $8,500,000 | 34.8% | $2,955,665 | — |
| 2021 | $9,000,000 | 24.5% | $2,205,892 | — |
| Subtotal | — | $19,141,696 | $10,517,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: | $29,658,696 (62%) |
| Travis Kelce |
| Year | Cap Number | Probability | Dead Money | Probability | Expected Cap Number |
| 2016 | $2,948,226 | 98.8% | $10,692,826 | 1.2% | $3,041,161 |
| 2017 | $5,418,400 | 94.7% | $7,873,600 | 5.3% | $5,548,526 |
| 2018 | $10,018,400 | 74.7% | $5,905,200 | 25.3% | $8,977,761 |
| 2019 | $9,968,400 | 57.1% | $3,936,800 | 42.9% | $7,380,843 |
| 2020 | $10,468,400 | 34.8% | $1,968,000 | 65.2% | $4,926,139 |
| 2021 | $9,000,000 | 24.5% | $0 | 75.5% | $2,205,000 |
| Total: | | | | $32,079,430 |
| Lane Johnson |
| Stated Value: $59,362,242 |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2016 | — | 99.4% | — | $13,112,242 |
| 2017 | $250,000 | 97.7% | $244,209 | $7,750,000 |
| 2018 | $10,250,000 | 86.8% | $8,896,731 | — |
| 2019 | $10,850,000 | 72.5% | $7,865,301 | — |
| 2020 | $8,835,000 | 57.9% | $5,113,729 | — |
| 2021 | $8,315,000 | 43.0% | $3,573,326 | — |
| Subtotal | — | $25,693,297 | $20,862,242 |
| Expected Contract Value: | $46,555,539 (78%) |
| Lane Johnson |
| Year | Cap Number | Probability | Dead Money | Probability | Expected Cap Number |
| 2016 | $8,128,388 | 99.4% | $20,862,242 | 0.6% | $8,204,791 |
| 2017 | $10,000,000 | 97.7% | $15,750,000 | 2.3% | $10,132,250 |
| 2018 | $12,250,000 | 86.8% | $6,000,000 | 13.2% | $11,425,000 |
| 2019 | $12,850,000 | 72.5% | $4,000,000 | 27.5% | $10,416,250 |
| 2020 | $10,835,000 | 57.9% | $2,000,000 | 42.1% | $7,115,465 |
| 2021 | $8,315,000 | 43.0% | $0 | 57.0% | $3,575,450 |
| Total: | | | | $50,869,206 |
| Vinny Curry |
| Stated Value: $46,250,000 |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2016 | — | 99.4% | — | $11,000,000 |
| 2017 | — | 96.0% | — | $7,000,000 |
| 2018 | $9,000,000 | 72.0% | $6,483,211 | — |
| 2019 | $9,250,000 | 47.9% | $4,427,033 | — |
| 2020 | $10,000,000 | 23.4% | $2,339,896 | — |
| Subtotal | — | $13,250,140 | $18,000,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: | $31,250,140 (68%) |
| Vinny Curry |
| Year | Cap Number | Probability | Dead Money | Probability | Expected Cap Number |
| 2016 | $3,000,000 | 99.4% | $18,000,000 | 0.6% | $3,090,000 |
| 2017 | $9,000,000 | 96.0% | $15,000,000 | 4.0% | $9,240,000 |
| 2018 | $11,000,000 | 72.0% | $6,000,000 | 28.0% | $9,600,000 |
| 2019 | $11,250,000 | 47.9% | $4,000,000 | 52.1% | $7,472,750 |
| 2020 | $12,000,000 | 23.4% | $2,000,000 | 76.6% | $4,340,000 |
| Total: | | | | $33,742,750 |
Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.
Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.
Nicholas Barton is a junior at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu
