Introducing Commitment Index
Part 3: Measuring the Mortgage
Part 1: The “Mortgaging the Future” Assertion
Part 2: The Trough Model and the Folly of “Matching Cash With Cap”
In Part 1, I explained that the concept of a team “mortgaging its future” only matters to the degree that the team has mortgaged its future relative to the other teams in the league. As a result, the Mortgaging the Future Assertion should not be used in a vacuum with respect to a given transaction, but rather within the context of the position on the mortgage continuum on which every team in the league sits at that point in time.
In Part 2, I explained that the trough-like nature of the NFL salary cap dictates that the most common way in which teams supposedly mortgage their future – by incurring cap debt upon the proration of signing bonuses – does not actually lead to any mortgaging of the future if the team has enough cap space in the present year to avoid cap debt by earmarking cap space to be rolled forward. However, a team may consciously decide to incur cap debt, and therefore mortgage its future relative to the other teams in the league, for entirely rational reasons. Today, I will identify the degree to which each team has decided to do that relative to all of the other teams in the league.
In order to “measure the mortgage” for each team, I first calculated the total amount of future signing bonus proration that each team is accountable for in all future years (i.e. 2016 and beyond). For all of the reasons I have previously enumerated, I then subtracted from that number the amount of cap space that each team currently has in 2015. The resulting number for each team represents that team’s cap debt. The following numbers are recorded as of immediately following the draft (excluding any draft pick contracts), but include the transactions related to Whitney Mercilus, James Jones, Kamerion Wimbley, and Ryan Tannehill.
Team | Mortgage | Cap Space | Cap Debt |
Jacksonville Jaguars | $19,138,150 | $(39,128,154) | $(19,990,004) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | $11,289,128 | $(25,910,618) | $(14,621,490) |
Oakland Raiders | $15,941,027 | $(23,623,642) | $(7,682,615) |
Indianapolis Colts | $18,121,876 | $(10,425,210) | $7,696,666 |
Cincinnati Bengals | $29,558,544 | $(19,278,949) | $10,279,595 |
Chicago Bears | $23,424,038 | $(11,115,272) | $12,308,766 |
Cleveland Browns | $40,023,224 | $(26,309,148) | $13,714,076 |
Minnesota Vikings | $25,888,916 | $(11,726,492) | $14,162,424 |
New York Jets | $28,605,898 | $(10,355,039) | $18,250,859 |
St. Louis Rams | $27,167,705 | $(8,755,206) | $18,412,499 |
San Diego Chargers | $35,729,586 | $(15,700,332) | $20,029,254 |
Tennessee Titans | $45,036,701 | $(24,227,273) | $20,809,428 |
Washington Redskins | $30,803,378 | $(6,505,142) | $24,298,236 |
Seattle Seahawks | $35,223,040 | $(10,854,278) | $24,368,762 |
Denver Broncos | $31,980,264 | $(7,060,118) | $24,920,146 |
Philadelphia Eagles | $37,233,597 | $(9,633,625) | $27,599,972 |
New York Giants | $36,614,385 | $(6,972,313) | $29,642,072 |
Carolina Panthers | $44,204,313 | $(9,124,248) | $35,080,065 |
Detroit Lions | $47,853,136 | $(4,725,692) | $43,127,444 |
Atlanta Falcons | $62,748,313 | $(19,587,565) | $43,160,748 |
San Francisco 49ers | $50,374,020 | $(6,313,247) | $44,060,773 |
Houston Texans | $55,601,570 | $(9,144,849) | $46,456,721 |
Green Bay Packers | $63,259,134 | $(16,528,182) | $46,730,952 |
Kansas City Chiefs | $50,705,952 | $(2,487,991) | $48,217,961 |
New England Patriots | $59,273,415 | $(5,910,487) | $53,362,928 |
Miami Dolphins | $65,400,713 | $(9,272,862) | $56,127,851 |
Arizona Cardinals | $71,232,951 | $(9,112,981) | $62,119,970 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | $74,676,667 | $(9,183,051) | $65,493,616 |
New Orleans Saints | $69,967,987 | $(3,904,372) | $66,063,615 |
Buffalo Bills | $74,511,837 | $(6,924,045) | $67,587,792 |
Dallas Cowboys | $81,964,436 | $(12,290,324) | $69,674,112 |
Baltimore Ravens | $82,802,900 | $(10,443,490) | $72,359,410 |
Team | Cap Debt | Guarantees | Commitments |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | $(14,621,490) | $10,165,342 | $(4,456,148) |
Oakland Raiders | $(7,682,615) | $12,443,728 | $4,761,113 |
Cincinnati Bengals | $10,279,595 | $1,910,764 | $12,190,359 |
Indianapolis Colts | $7,696,666 | $5,500,000 | $13,196,666 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | $(19,990,004) | $34,080,402 | $14,090,398 |
Seattle Seahawks | $24,368,762 | $0 | $24,368,762 |
Minnesota Vikings | $14,162,424 | $10,428,952 | $24,591,376 |
Tennessee Titans | $20,809,428 | $5,125,230 | $25,934,658 |
Denver Broncos | $24,920,146 | $1,052,048 | $25,972,194 |
Cleveland Browns | $13,714,076 | $13,391,385 | $27,105,461 |
Chicago Bears | $12,308,766 | $17,541,590 | $29,850,356 |
Washington Redskins | $24,298,236 | $8,000,000 | $32,298,236 |
St. Louis Rams | $18,412,499 | $14,639,060 | $33,051,559 |
San Diego Chargers | $20,029,254 | $16,347,067 | $36,376,321 |
New York Giants | $29,642,072 | $7,012,352 | $36,654,424 |
Carolina Panthers | $35,080,065 | $2,831,454 | $37,911,519 |
San Francisco 49ers | $44,060,773 | $2,628,061 | $46,688,834 |
Atlanta Falcons | $43,160,748 | $4,873,977 | $48,034,725 |
Green Bay Packers | $46,730,952 | $1,956,580 | $48,687,532 |
Detroit Lions | $43,127,444 | $6,564,510 | $49,691,954 |
Philadelphia Eagles | $27,599,972 | $27,629,010 | $55,228,982 |
New England Patriots | $53,362,928 | $5,583,959 | $58,946,887 |
Houston Texans | $46,456,721 | $19,419,872 | $65,876,593 |
New York Jets | $18,250,859 | $49,237,195 | $67,488,054 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | $65,493,616 | $4,592,845 | $70,086,461 |
Dallas Cowboys | $69,674,112 | $3,358,135 | $73,032,247 |
Arizona Cardinals | $62,119,970 | $12,795,836 | $74,915,806 |
New Orleans Saints | $66,063,615 | $9,522,313 | $75,585,928 |
Kansas City Chiefs | $48,217,961 | $27,686,700 | $75,904,661 |
Baltimore Ravens | $72,359,410 | $9,837,275 | $82,196,685 |
Buffalo Bills | $67,587,792 | $18,487,451 | $86,075,243 |
Miami Dolphins | $56,127,851 | $45,565,545 | $101,693,396 |
Team | Commitment Index |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | No Commitment |
Oakland Raiders | 10% |
Cincinnati Bengals | 27% |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 28% |
Indianapolis Colts | 29% |
Denver Broncos | 52% |
Seattle Seahawks | 54% |
Minnesota Vikings | 54% |
Tennessee Titans | 57% |
Cleveland Browns | 60% |
Chicago Bears | 66% |
Washington Redskins | 71% |
St. Louis Rams | 73% |
San Diego Chargers | 81% |
New York Giants | 81% |
Carolina Panthers | 84% |
San Francisco 49ers | 103% |
Green Bay Packers | 107% |
Atlanta Falcons | 111% |
Detroit Lions | 115% |
Philadelphia Eagles | 119% |
New England Patriots | 125% |
Houston Texans | 145% |
New York Jets | 149% |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 154% |
Dallas Cowboys | 160% |
Arizona Cardinals | 165% |
New Orleans Saints | 167% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 167% |
Baltimore Ravens | 181% |
Buffalo Bills | 190% |
Miami Dolphins | 224% |