Expected Contract Value 2.0: 2016 Expected Outcomes

The following table displays the likelihood of each player with a salary cap number of $2 million or more remaining under contract for 2016, as calculated by Expected Contract Value 2.0.  Pay cuts and retirements are considered releases for purposes of Expected Contract Value.  Players subject to 5th year team options of rookie contracts are not included.  An Expected Outcome of 100% is not actually possible, but some players are listed as such because we have rounded up to only one decimal point.  Please see the Reintroduction to Expected Contract Value for an explanation as to the methodology.

PlayerTeamPosExpected Outcome
Marcus PetersKCDB100.0%
Aaron DonaldSTLF7100.0%
Leonard WilliamsNYJF7100.0%
Luke KuechlyCARF7100.0%
Jameis WinstonTBQB100.0%
Amari CooperOAKREC100.0%
JJ WattHOUF7100.0%
Ereck FlowersNYGOL100.0%
Kevin JohnsonHOUDB100.0%
Marcus MariotaTENQB100.0%
Khalil MackOAKF7100.0%
Vic BeasleyATLF7100.0%
Bobby WagnerSEAF7100.0%
Stephen GostkowskiNEKP100.0%
CJ MosleyBALF799.9%
Odell Beckham JrNYGREC99.9%
Chris HarrisDENDB99.9%
Shaq ThompsonCARF799.9%
DeVante ParketMIAREC99.9%
Mike EvansTBREC99.9%
Ha Ha Clinton-DixGBDB99.9%
Brandon ScherffWASOL99.9%
Trent WilliamsWASOL99.9%
Bud DupreePITF799.9%
Andrus PeatNOOL99.9%
Blake BortlesJAXQB99.9%
Geno AtkinsCINF799.9%
Sammy WatkinsBUFREC99.9%
Patrick PetersonARIDB99.9%
Lane JohnsonPHIOL99.9%
Calvin PryorNYJDB99.9%
Kyle FullerCHIDB99.9%
Julio JonesATLREC99.8%
Nelson AgholorPHIREC99.8%
Jadeveon ClowneyHOUF799.8%
Dante FowlerJAXF799.8%
Richard ShermanSEADB99.8%
Cam NewtonCARQB99.8%
Trae WaynesMINDB99.8%
Ryan ShazierPITF799.8%
Anthony BarrMINF799.8%
Arik ArmsteadSFF799.8%
Shane RayDENF799.8%
Danny SheltonCLEF799.8%
Kevin WhiteCHIREC99.8%
Marcel DareusBUFF799.8%
Brandin CooksNOREC99.8%
Travis KelceKCREC99.8%
Tyron SmithDALOL99.7%
Russell WilsonSEAQB99.7%
Zach ErtzPHIREC99.7%
Dan BaileyDALKP99.7%
Mike IupatiARIOL99.7%
Jake MatthewsATLOL99.6%
Eric EbronDETREC99.5%
Todd GurleySTLRB99.5%
Ndamukong SuhMIAF799.5%
Whitney MercilusHOUF799.4%
Mike DanielsGBF799.3%
Jimmy SmithBALDB99.3%
Jeremy MaclinKCREC99.3%
Greg RobinsonSTLOL99.3%
Derek WolfeDENF799.3%
NaVorro BowmanSFF799.3%
Ryan KerriganWASF799.3%
Ezekial AnsahDETF799.3%
Jason VerrettSDDB99.2%
Rob GronkowskiNEREC99.2%
Deone BucannonARIDB99.2%
Tyrone CrawfordDALF799.2%
Zack MartinDALOL99.1%
Jerry HughesBUFF799.1%
Mychal KendricksPHIF799.1%
Taylor LewanTENOL99.1%
Demaryius ThomasDENREC99.1%
Melvin GordonSDRB99.0%
Cameron ErvingCLEOL99.0%
Justin HoustonKCF799.0%
Cameron HeywardPITF798.9%
Antonio BrownPITREC98.9%
Alex SmithKCQB98.8%
Ryan TannehillMIAQB98.7%
Greg OlsenCARREC98.7%
AJ GreenCINREC98.7%
Marcus GilbertPITOL98.7%
Devin McCourtyNEDB98.7%
Cameron JordanNOF798.6%
Johnny ManzielCLEQB98.6%
Thomas DavisCARF798.5%
Johnny HekkerSTLKP98.5%
Andrew WhitworthCINOL98.4%
Carlos DunlapCINF798.4%
KJ WrightSEAF798.2%
Lavonte DavidTBF798.2%
Byron MaxwellPHIDB98.2%
Bryan BulagaGBOL98.2%
Steven HauschkaSEAKP98.2%
Charles ClayBUFREC98.1%
Marshal YandaBALOL98.0%
Clint BolingCINOL97.9%
Jarvis JonesPITF797.9%
Darrelle RevisNYJDB97.9%
Brett KernTENKP97.7%
Jared VeldheerARIOL97.7%
Allen BaileyKCF797.6%
Earl ThomasSEADB97.6%
Justin GilbertCLEDB97.5%
Jermey ParnellJAXOL97.4%
Vinny CurryPHIF797.4%
Ryan SuccopTENKP97.2%
Derek NewtonHOUOL97.0%
James CarpenterNYJOL97.0%
Marcus GilchristNYJDB97.0%
Cedric OgbuehiCINOL96.9%
Kareem JacksonHOUDB96.9%
Randall CobbGBREC96.9%
Davon HouseJAXDB96.8%
Dee FordKCF796.8%
TY HiltonINDREC96.7%
LeSean McCoyBUFRB96.7%
Mark IngramNORB96.6%
Brandon FuscoMINOL96.6%
Eli ManningNYGQB96.6%
Larry FitzgeraldARIREC96.5%
Ja’Wuan JamesMIAOL96.4%
Jurrell CaseyTENF796.4%
Luke JoeckelJAXOL96.3%
Buster SkrineNYJDB96.3%
Andy DaltonCINQB96.3%
Dez BryantDALREC96.3%
Carson PalmerARIQB96.1%
Ryan KalilCAROL96.0%
DeAndre HopkinsHOUREC95.9%
Anthony CastonzoINDOL95.9%
Sam KochBALKP95.9%
Brian CushingHOUF795.9%
Alex MackCLEOL95.7%
Ron ParkerKCDB95.7%
Ben RoethlisbergerPITQB95.7%
Tavon AustinSTLREC95.6%
Star LotuleleiCARF795.6%
Marcus SmithPHIF795.6%
Kenny VaccaroNODB95.5%
Eric ReidSFDB95.5%
Mike PounceyMIAOL95.4%
Dwayne HarrisNYGREC95.4%
Kyle RudolphMINREC95.4%
Corey LiugetSDF795.4%
Jared OdrickJAXF795.1%
Matt PraterDETKP95.0%
Brandon GrahamPHIF794.9%
Vontaze BurfictCINF794.8%
Darqueze DennardCINDB94.7%
DeMarco MurrayPHIRB94.6%
Michael JohnsonCINF794.5%
Eric FisherKCOL94.5%
Dan WilliamsOAKF794.3%
Matt RyanATLQB94.2%
Everson GriffenMINF794.1%
Jarius WrightMINREC94.1%
Clay MatthewsGBF794.0%
Aaron RodgersGBQB94.0%
Jason KelcePHIOL93.9%
Justin PughNYGOL93.9%
Julius ThomasJAXREC93.7%
Jay CutlerCHIQB93.7%
Rodney HudsonOAKOL93.6%
Brent CelekPHIREC93.6%
Michael BennettSEAF793.4%
Golden TateDETREC93.2%
Philip RiversSDQB93.2%
Justin BethelARIDB93.1%
Desmond TrufantATLDB93.1%
Travis FrederickDALOL93.0%
Cliff AvrilSEAF793.0%
Linval JosephMINF792.8%
Sheldon RichardsonNYJF792.7%
Sean LeeDALF792.5%
Pat McAfeeINDKP92.4%
Gerald McCoyTBF792.4%
Sharrif FloydMINF792.4%
Mike MitchellPITDB92.3%
Graham GanoCARKP92.1%
Robert QuinnSTLF791.8%
Joe ThomasCLEOL91.8%
DJ HumphriesARIOL91.7%
DJ FlukerSDOL91.6%
Sylvester WilliamsDENF791.6%
Kelvin BenjaminCARREC91.3%
Orlando FranklinSDOL91.3%
Dan CarpenterBUFKP91.1%
James LaurinaitisSTLF790.9%
Josh SittonGBOL90.8%
Matt StaffordDETQB90.6%
Austin HowardOAKOL90.6%
Malcolm SmithOAKF790.5%
Andy LevitreATLOL90.4%
Tom BradyNEQB90.2%
Derrick MorganTENF789.6%
Donald ButlerSDF789.4%
David HarrisNYJF789.3%
Vontae DavisINDDB89.1%
Torrey SmithSFREC89.0%
Orlando ScandrickDALDB88.9%
Connor BarwinPHIF788.9%
Calais CampbellARIF788.9%
Akeem AyersSTLF788.7%
Eric DeckerNYJREC88.6%
Zach StriefNOOL88.5%
Matt BosherATLKP88.5%
Pernell McPheeCHIF788.3%
Josh MaugaKCF788.2%
Aqib TalibDENDB88.0%
Chance WarmackTENOL88.0%
Brandon FlowersSDDB87.5%
Da’Norris SearcyTENDB87.0%
Tyler EifertCINREC86.9%
Rey MaualugaCINF786.9%
Michael CrabtreeOAKREC86.8%
DJ HaydenOAKDB86.8%
Xavier RhodesMINDB86.6%
Kyle LongCHIOL86.0%
Gary BarnidgeCLEREC85.9%
Patrick ChungNEDB85.9%
Morgan BurnettGBDB85.9%
Cole BeasleyDALREC85.7%
Jairus ByrdNODB85.7%
Zane BeadlesJAXOL85.6%
Tony RomoDALQB85.5%
Will HillBALDB85.4%
Matt ElamBALDB85.4%
Alec OgletreeSTLF785.2%
Joe StaleySFOL85.0%
Nick FolesSTLQB85.0%
Aaron WilliamsBUFDB84.9%
Doug BaldwinSEAREC84.5%
Chris CulliverWASDB84.5%
Sam ShieldsGBDB84.2%
Arthur MoatsPITF784.1%
Eric WoodBUFOL83.7%
Andy LeeCLEKP83.7%
Reshad JonesMIADB82.9%
Shane VereenNYGRB82.9%
Brooks ReedATLF782.9%
DRCNYGDB82.5%
Robbie GouldCHIKP82.2%
Joe FlaccoBALQB81.2%
Breno GiacominiNYJOL80.8%
Matt SlausonCHIOL80.8%
Calvin JohnsonDETREC80.5%
EJ ManuelBUFQB79.8%
JT ThomasNYGF779.1%
Rahim MooreHOUDB79.1%
Kendall LangfordINDF778.9%
John HughesCLEF778.8%
Lawrence TimmonsPITF778.5%
Elvis DumervilBALF778.1%
Chris BakerWASF778.1%
Brian OrakpoTENF778.0%
Joe HadenCLEDB77.7%
Colin KaepernickSFQB77.3%
Max UngerNOOL77.1%
Jonathan CooperARIOL76.1%
CJ SpillerNORB76.0%
Stephen PaeaWASF776.0%
Tyson JacksonATLF775.6%
Kam ChancellorSEADB75.4%
Roy MillerJAXF775.3%
Paul FanaikaKCOL74.7%
Tramaine BrockSFDB74.2%
Tyson AlualuJAXF774.0%
Domata PekoCINF774.0%
Brandon MarshallNYJREC73.6%
Michael OherCAROL73.3%
Sebastian JanikowskiOAKKP73.0%
Julian EdelmanNEREC72.7%
Glover QuinnDETDB72.4%
Thomas MorsteadNOKP71.8%
Rob NinkovichNEF771.6%
Branden AlbertMIAOL71.3%
Ryan MathewsPHIRB71.2%
Koa MisiMIAF771.1%
Jonathan StewartCARRB70.7%
Kevin HuberCINKP69.1%
Dion JordanMIAF769.0%
Brian RobisonMINF769.0%
Wesley WoodyardTENF768.7%
Johnathan JosephHOUDB68.7%
D’Brickashaw FergusonNYJOL68.4%
TJ WardDENDB68.3%
Barkevious MingoCLEF767.4%
Nate SolderNEOL67.3%
Adrian PetersonMINRB67.0%
Earl MitchellMIADB66.6%
Jeremy KerleyNYJREC66.6%
Corey GrahamBUFDB66.5%
DeAndre LevyDETF766.3%
Darian StewartDENDB65.5%
Eddie RoyalCHIREC65.3%
Ted GinnCARREC65.3%
Dee MillinerNYJDB65.3%
Malcolm JenkinsPHIDB64.5%
Maurkice PounceyPITOL64.2%
Jonathan CasillasNYGF764.1%
Datone JonesGBF764.0%
Dustin ColquittKCKP63.4%
Perry RileyWASF762.8%
Perrish CoxTENDB62.7%
King DunlapSDOL62.6%
Mario WilliamsBUFF762.0%
Danny AmendolaNEREC61.9%
Emmanuel SandersDENREC61.4%
TJ LangGBOL61.3%
Justin DurantATLF761.1%
Lamarr HoustonCHIF761.0%
Cordarrelle PattersonMINREC60.7%
Paul KrugerCLEF760.2%
Drew BreesNOQB59.5%
Joe ReitzINDOL59.4%
Jabaal SheardNEF758.0%
Ricky Jean-FrancoisWASF757.9%
D’Qwell JacksonINDF757.6%
Doug FreeDALOL57.5%
Duane BrownHOUOL57.2%
Dennis PittaBALREC56.9%
Rodger SaffoldSTLOL56.8%
Desmond BryantCLEF756.4%
Dan SkutaJAXF756.0%
Steve JohnsonSDREC56.0%
Alan BranchNEF755.8%
Curtis LoftonOAKF755.6%
Jimmy GrahamSEAREC55.4%
Bjoern WernerINDF755.2%
Brandon CarrDALDB55.2%
Lance KendricksSTLREC55.1%
Paul PoslusznyJAXF755.0%
Jahri EvansNOOL54.9%
Ben GrubbsKCOL54.8%
Sebastian VollmerNEOL54.8%
Geoff SchwartzNYGOL54.6%
Jerod MayoNEF754.3%
Brandon BrownerNODB54.3%
Jerome FeltonBUFRB54.3%
Antonio CromartieNYJDB54.1%
Barry ChurchDALDB53.8%
Paul SoliaiATLF753.7%
Daryl SmithBALF753.4%
Manny LawsonBUFF753.3%
Blaine GabbertSFQB53.2%
Vance WalkerDENF751.9%
Eugene MonroeBALOL51.6%
Louis VasquezDENOL51.5%
Marshawn LynchSEARB51.4%
Cortez AllenPITDB51.2%
Jason PetersPHIOL51.2%
Marcus CannonNEOL51.1%
Rashad JenningsNYGRB51.0%
Bruce CarterTBF751.0%
Jeremy ZuttahBALOL50.2%
Anthony ShermanKCRB50.2%
Pierre GarconWASREC50.1%
Victor CruzNYGREC49.6%
Britton ColquittDENKP48.4%
Jared CookSTLREC48.3%
Jamaal CharlesKCRB48.3%
Brian HoyerHOUQB48.3%
Lardarius WebbBALDB47.5%
Nick FolkNYJKP47.5%
Riley CooperPHIREC47.5%
Donnie JonesPHIKP47.0%
Kenny BrittSTLREC46.4%
Andre RobertsWASREC46.3%
Corey PetersARIF746.0%
Josh McCownCLEQB46.0%
Mike ScifresSDKP45.9%
Virgil GreenDENREC44.9%
Brandon LaFellNEREC44.4%
Ed DicksonCARREC43.3%
Nate IrvingINDF742.4%
Cecil ShortsHOUREC42.3%
DeSean JacksonWASREC41.6%
Mike WallaceMINREC41.4%
Erik WaldenINDF741.2%
Jordy NelsonGBREC40.8%
Dexter McClusterTENREC40.6%
Frank GoreINDRB40.4%
George JohnsonTBF740.3%
Justin ForsettBALRB40.1%
Nick MangoldNYJOL39.8%
Daryl WashingtonARIF739.7%
Delanie WalkerTENREC39.6%
Jon AsamoahATLOL38.5%
Mark SanchezPHIQB38.0%
Willie YoungCHIF737.8%
Karl KlugTENF737.8%
Charles JohnsonCARF737.7%
Alterraun VernerTBDB37.5%
Ahmad BrooksSFF737.4%
Shaun SuishamPITKP37.1%
Jordan CameronMIAREC35.9%
Lee SmithOAKREC35.6%
Stephen TullochDETF735.6%
Donte WhitnerCLEDB35.1%
Arthur JonesINDF735.0%
Captain MunnerlynMINDB34.7%
Martellus BennettCHIREC34.6%
Sergio BrownJAXDB33.6%
DeMeco RyansPHIF733.6%
Nate AllenOAKDB33.5%
Roddy WhiteATLREC33.5%
William MooreATLDB33.1%
Vince WilforkHOUF732.9%
Tramon WilliamsCLEDB32.8%
Tom JohnsonMINF732.5%
Owen DanielsDENREC31.8%
Karlos DansbyCLEF731.7%
Jason HatcherWASF731.6%
Phil LoadholdtMINOL31.4%
Clinton McDonaldTBF730.9%
Shawn LauvaoWASOL30.6%
Darren McFaddenDALRB30.4%
Gosder CherilusTBOL30.2%
Dannell EllerbeNOF729.9%
Dashon GoldsonWASDB29.8%
Jason WittenDALREC27.6%
Brent GrimesMIADB27.6%
Akeem DentHOUF726.7%
Keenan LewisNODB26.6%
Kyle ArringtonBALDB26.1%
Sen’Derrick MarksJAXF725.7%
Harry DouglasTENREC25.6%
Glenn DorseySFF725.5%
Scott ChandlerNEREC25.4%
Randy StarksCLEF725.3%
Evan Dietrich-SmithTBOL24.4%
Brandon PettigrewDETREC24.0%
Roy HeluOAKRB23.8%
Brian HartlineCLEREC23.7%
Brice McCainMIADB23.2%
Michael GriffinTENDB23.1%
Julius PeppersGBF722.8%
Logan MankinsTBOL21.5%
Vincent JacksonTBREC21.1%
Danny WoodheadSDRB19.9%
Kyle WilliamsBUFF719.8%
Chris LongSTLF719.2%
DeAngelo HallWASDB18.7%
Jermon BushrodCHIOL18.1%
CJ WilsonDETF718.0%
Andre JohnsonINDREC17.8%
David HawthorneNOF716.9%
DeMarcus WareDENF716.7%
Terrell SuggsBALF716.7%
Marques ColstonNOREC16.2%
Joique BellDETRB16.2%
Matt BryantATLKP15.9%
Jared AllenCARF715.6%
Jason McCourtyTENDB15.4%
Garrett GrahamHOUREC14.8%
Dwayne BoweCLEREC14.8%
Kory LichtensteigerWASOL14.4%
Heath MillerPITREC14.3%
Erik PearsSFOL14.2%
DeAngelo WilliamsPITRB13.8%
Arian FosterHOURB13.6%
Jim DrayCLEREC13.2%
Anthony FasanoTENREC11.6%
Jon BeasonNYGF711.1%
Kraig UrbikBUFOL10.8%
Toby GerhartJAXRB10.5%
Leodis McKelvinBUFDB10.4%
Trent ColeINDF710.4%
Shaun HillMINQB9.9%
Robert MathisINDF79.7%
Chris CantyBALF79.6%
Jonathan BabineauxATLF79.4%
Antoine BetheaSFDB9.3%
John SullivanMINOL9.3%
Ryan CladyDENOL9.2%
Darius ButlerINDDB9.0%
Chris ClemonsJAXF78.8%
Marcel ReeceOAKRB8.2%
Will BeattyNYGOL8.2%
Darren SprolesPHIRB8.0%
Peyton ManningDENQB7.1%
Antrel RolleCHIDB7.1%
Greg JenningsMIAREC7.0%
Ropati PitoituaTENF76.9%
Steve SmithBALREC6.1%
Cameron WakeMIAF76.1%
Devin HesterATLREC5.4%
Cory ReddingARIF74.2%
Dwan EdwardsCARF72.4%
 

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nick Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate M&A associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nick Barton is  a junior at the McDonough School Business at  Georgetown University.  He is majoring in Finance and Operations and Information Management. Nick currently interns with an NFL team . His prior work experience includes interning with CollegeSplits and Dynamic Sports Solutions, and working as a research assistant for the Center of Applied Research of the Apostolate.

  • McGeorge

    How is Breno Giacomini not getting cut?
    And Dbrickishaw Fergusun will be cut if he doesn’t take a pay cut.

  • sjt2115

    Donald Butler at 89%? Nah.

  • eddiea

    How is it Cobb has a 95% chance and Nelson less than 30%? Especially since Cobb blew it ,when he was #1 WR while Nelson rehabbed his ACL injury. If not for that or if it was Cobb injured,GB would’ve had a better record if not have been in SB. Charts or guesses are nice but ddon’t always makes the best sense imho,but most do prove true. I just don’t see GB asking Nelson to drop his pay or the C’boys asking Witten,another less than 30% player