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Zach Ertz: Expected Contract Value & Expected Cap Numbers

Zach Ertz
Stated Value: $43,638,527
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2016	—	99.6%	—	$9,138,527
2017	—	97.6%	—	$4,000,000
2018	$8,000,000	74.2%	$5,933,458	—
2019	$7,500,000	60.0%	$4,502,508	—
2020	$7,250,000	42.6%	$3,085,812	—
2021	$7,750,000	30.9%	$2,392,200	—
Subtotal		—	$15,913,977	$13,138,527
Expected Contract Value:			$29,052,504 (67%)

Zach Ertz
Year	Cap Number	Probability	Dead Money	Probability	Expected Cap Number
2016	$3,311,563	99.6%	$13,711,563	0.4%	$3,353,163
2017	$5,600,000	97.6%	$10,400,000	2.4%	$5,715,200
2018	$9,600,000	74.2%	$4,800,000	25.8%	$8,361,600
2019	$9,100,000	60.0%	$3,200,000	40.0%	$6,740,000
2020	$8,850,000	42.6%	$1,600,000	57.4%	$4,688,500
2021	$7,750,000	30.9%	$0	69.1%	$2,394,750
Total:					$31,253,213

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a junior at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.