I was talking with a friend of mine the other day about receivers and potential salaries in free agency which reminded me of my dominator index for receivers. For those who don’t remember the dominator index, basically it’s a measure of how much of the offense a receiver accounts for. We break down each receiver into four categories- targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns – to see just what they mean to the team. Summing the categories we come up with the dominator index, which maybe would also be useful for some fantasy fanatics. So let’s see how things stack up after 8 weeks.
At the top of the list is Mike Evans which is not really a bit surprise. Vincent Jackson is injured and the team’s skill spots leave a lot to be desired. Evans leads the league in percentage of team targets and is 2nd in yards and 3rd in touchdowns. Im not sure when the extension is coming but Evans should make a lot of money when it comes. He is a vital part of the offense.
I was shocked to see how high Larry Fitzgerald and especially Mike Wallace rank in this list. In some ways it speaks to their touchdown ability but it also speaks to the inadequacy of their rosters. The Ravens simply have nobody and the Cardinals receivers, specifically Michael Floyd, haven’t fired. I never thought I would say that Fitzgerald would justify the Cardinals contract decision but he has.
Odell Beckham rounds out the top 5 and obviously he is helped by his last game but for those who think this is a down year his rank so far would indicate its not. The Giants offense and Elis play has not been great, but he is still the top player even if the overall numbers have not been where people expect.
Jeremy Kerley who ranks 10th is probably the value signing of the season. Like Wallace his ranking has a lot to do with the lack of talent on his team, but San Francisco probably could not have asked for more from a player who was likely going to be cut from the Lions.
Terrell Pryor is the lone bright spot on an abysmal team and will have a very interesting free agency period. Many teams passed on him and the question will be if they see him differently or just look at him as a producer on a bad team. He ranks 12th overall Sanders and Beasley are bringing value to their teams and should make teams start thinking more about the high pricing of the number 1.
DeAndre Hopkins still ranks in the top 15 but this is clearly a down year for him. Brock Osweiler is terrible but Hopkins has played with terrible QBs before and been able to put up big numbers so there is something off here. Will it impact his contract dreams this offseason? We will need to wait and see.
Jets fans should be happy to see Quincy Enunwa making such an impact in the offense. There was a lot of worry about what would happen when Eric Decker was injured, but he has filled in nicely. I would not be surprised if he makes Decker expendable, though it will depend on what they do with the QB spot next year. If they make a bold move they will take a chance on Decker’s health. If its anyone currently on their roster I would not think they would do it.
Alshon Jeffrey has struggled to stand out and his tough run on touchdowns really drags him down. I wrote about him the other week and don’t think that will impact him too much but he is definitely not having the season he, or the Bears, hoped for. He really would have been a logical player to trade.
I wanted to look at how salaries were matching up with performance for veterans so I plotted salary vs performance for each player in a 9 box grid (click on the photo for a more legible photo)
The cutoffs for each section represents tier 1, tier 2 and tier ¾ performance vs tier 1, tier 2, and tier ¾ salaries. Though some teams I am sure are unhappy with the performance or overall salaries of their players I was surprised to see so few expensive total busts. Most of the expensive players in the low performance tier are injured and that is not something, in most cases, you can hold against the team and their decision making process.
The tier one talents likely not meeting expectations are Tavon Austin, Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, Allen Hurns, and Jeffery. Cobb and Hurns are borderline with their salary (though Hurns, if we used a RFA value in his contract is a clear tier 1) so the teams probably should not be as down there. The tier 2’s that are not hitting their mark are Mohammed Sanu, Victor Cruz, and the Redskins receivers.
Surprisingly disappointing players like Torrey Smith are not a total disaster. He is basically taking the part of a lower level number 2 receiver in a really bad offense. Would he be any better on another team? I would not think so, but at least I can visualize slightly why the 49ers didn’t trade him away.
The real standouts this year are Kerley, Cole Beasley, Wallace, Kenny Britt, Antonio Brown, Michael Crabtree, Brandon Marshall, Brandon LaFell, Brian Quick, Anquan Boldin, Julian Edelman, Rishard Matthews, and Travis Benjamin. That’s not to say that all those players are great or even really good, just that they are playing a bigger role than their salary would indicate.
When it comes to players who are non-veterans its pretty hard to provide no value. The highest contracted annual salary would be Amari Cooper at $5.6 million and that’s basically a tier 3 player. Most fall in the tier 4 category and their performance matches that.
As for finding talent it would seem that very few are falling through the draft process. Pryor, ranked 5thamong non vets, is the highest player to effectively sign as a street player. Enunwa at 7 was drafted by the Jets but could have been poached by anyone off their practice squad in 2014 and 2015. The next highest player not on a contract they were drafted into is Tyrell Williams of the Chargers at 20. Many of the players were drafted towards the top of the draft
Here is the list of everyone we had stats on through the first 8 weeks of the season.
| Rank | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yd | TD | Dom. Index | APY |
| 1 | Mike Evans | 32.0% | 27.8% | 35.7% | 42.9% | 138.3% | $3,657,763 |
| 2 | AJ Green | 30.6% | 30.6% | 40.7% | 33.3% | 135.2% | $15,000,000 |
| 3 | Mike Wallace | 19.4% | 18.5% | 28.2% | 60.0% | 126.1% | $5,750,000 |
| 4 | Larry Fitzgerald | 24.8% | 28.9% | 26.5% | 41.7% | 121.8% | $11,000,000 |
| 5 | Odell Beckham | 25.9% | 22.9% | 32.7% | 37.5% | 119.0% | $2,601,550 |
| 6 | Demaryius Thomas | 23.4% | 24.9% | 30.2% | 40.0% | 118.5% | $14,000,000 |
| 7 | Antonio Brown | 27.4% | 27.6% | 31.6% | 29.4% | 116.0% | $8,392,000 |
| 8 | Emmanuel Sanders | 27.5% | 26.0% | 32.0% | 30.0% | 115.5% | $11,000,000 |
| 9 | Jarvis Landry | 30.5% | 33.1% | 35.6% | 14.3% | 113.5% | $868,727 |
| 10 | Jeremy Kerley | 27.2% | 25.9% | 29.3% | 28.6% | 111.0% | $850,000 |
| 11 | Jordan Matthews | 24.0% | 24.0% | 28.7% | 33.3% | 110.1% | $1,237,318 |
| 12 | Terrelle Pryor | 25.3% | 22.9% | 27.5% | 33.3% | 109.1% | $1,671,000 |
| 13 | DeAndre Hopkins | 25.6% | 22.7% | 27.2% | 33.3% | 108.9% | $1,906,675 |
| 14 | TY Hilton | 26.4% | 23.2% | 34.0% | 25.0% | 108.6% | $13,000,000 |
| 15 | Quincy Enunwa | 20.7% | 22.5% | 27.2% | 37.5% | 107.9% | $498,750 |
| 16 | Kelvin Benjamin | 22.0% | 20.1% | 25.3% | 40.0% | 107.4% | $1,916,063 |
| 17 | Cole Beasley | 20.7% | 25.7% | 25.8% | 33.3% | 105.6% | $3,401,500 |
| 18 | Michael Crabtree | 23.2% | 22.0% | 24.9% | 35.3% | 105.4% | $8,500,000 |
| 19 | Doug Baldwin | 20.2% | 22.9% | 26.6% | 33.3% | 103.1% | $11,500,000 |
| 20 | Julio Jones | 25.1% | 22.3% | 34.2% | 21.1% | 102.6% | $14,250,000 |
| 21 | Brandon Marshall | 27.0% | 21.3% | 29.3% | 25.0% | 102.5% | $8,666,667 |
| 22 | Kenny Britt | 20.3% | 22.4% | 33.6% | 25.0% | 101.3% | $4,575,000 |
| 23 | Stefon Diggs | 22.0% | 22.9% | 30.1% | 25.0% | 100.0% | $626,928 |
| 24 | Jordy Nelson | 21.8% | 17.6% | 25.0% | 35.3% | 99.7% | $9,762,500 |
| 25 | Davante Adams | 20.7% | 22.7% | 25.6% | 29.4% | 98.4% | $983,351 |
| 26 | Marvin Jones | 20.9% | 18.8% | 32.1% | 25.0% | 96.8% | $8,000,000 |
| 27 | Amari Cooper | 24.8% | 24.3% | 34.5% | 11.8% | 95.3% | $5,665,780 |
| 28 | Tavon Austin | 27.0% | 24.5% | 18.8% | 25.0% | 95.3% | $10,555,501 |
| 29 | Brandon LaFell | 15.3% | 14.5% | 17.2% | 44.4% | 91.4% | $2,500,000 |
| 30 | Jamison Crowder | 17.7% | 18.5% | 20.8% | 33.3% | 90.4% | $706,406 |
| 31 | Kenny Stills | 15.0% | 11.5% | 19.7% | 42.9% | 89.1% | $588,613 |
| 32 | Allen Robinson | 24.1% | 18.4% | 20.3% | 25.0% | 87.8% | $877,718 |
| 33 | Brian Quick | 13.5% | 13.6% | 22.4% | 37.5% | 87.0% | $1,750,000 |
| 34 | Brandin Cooks | 18.2% | 16.8% | 23.2% | 27.8% | 86.0% | $2,095,863 |
| 35 | Travis Benjamin | 19.7% | 20.9% | 23.4% | 20.0% | 84.0% | $6,000,000 |
| 36 | Alshon Jeffery | 21.6% | 19.1% | 28.2% | 12.5% | 81.4% | $14,599,000 |
| 37 | Jeremy Maclin | 21.5% | 17.6% | 21.3% | 20.0% | 80.4% | $11,000,000 |
| 38 | Allen Hurns | 19.3% | 17.8% | 24.5% | 16.7% | 78.3% | $10,012,500 |
| 39 | Sterling Shepard | 17.8% | 17.7% | 17.4% | 25.0% | 77.8% | $1,486,143 |
| 40 | Randall Cobb | 20.0% | 22.2% | 23.4% | 11.8% | 77.3% | $10,000,000 |
| 41 | Will Fuller | 17.2% | 14.2% | 23.3% | 22.2% | 76.9% | $2,541,078 |
| 42 | Michael Thomas | 17.9% | 19.6% | 21.9% | 16.7% | 76.0% | $1,279,744 |
| 43 | Marquise Goodwin | 13.6% | 8.8% | 18.0% | 33.3% | 73.7% | $713,469 |
| 44 | Rishard Matthews | 15.3% | 17.1% | 19.8% | 21.4% | 73.6% | $5,000,000 |
| 45 | Tyrell Williams | 18.0% | 17.6% | 24.4% | 13.3% | 73.3% | $525,000 |
| 46 | Tyreek Hill | 9.0% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 40.0% | 72.8% | $646,555 |
| 47 | Torrey Smith | 15.0% | 11.2% | 17.6% | 28.6% | 72.4% | $8,000,000 |
| 48 | Julian Edelman | 24.9% | 23.6% | 17.0% | 6.3% | 71.7% | $4,250,000 |
| 49 | Anquan Boldin | 15.6% | 17.3% | 13.5% | 25.0% | 71.4% | $2,750,000 |
| 50 | Robert Woods | 18.7% | 21.2% | 20.2% | 11.1% | 71.2% | $1,216,692 |
| 51 | Eddie Royal | 12.7% | 15.4% | 16.3% | 25.0% | 69.4% | $5,000,000 |
| 52 | Golden Tate | 22.0% | 19.9% | 21.2% | 6.3% | 69.4% | $6,200,000 |
| 53 | Andrew Hawkins | 12.0% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 33.3% | 69.2% | $3,400,000 |
| 54 | Adam Thielen | 14.8% | 16.3% | 23.5% | 12.5% | 67.2% | $600,000 |
| 55 | DeVante Parker | 16.9% | 16.5% | 18.4% | 14.3% | 66.1% | $2,719,135 |
| 56 | Steve Smith | 12.6% | 14.3% | 17.8% | 20.0% | 64.8% | $3,500,000 |
| 57 | Dez Bryant | 16.7% | 10.4% | 15.3% | 22.2% | 64.6% | $14,000,000 |
| 58 | Mohamed Sanu | 17.9% | 16.6% | 13.6% | 15.8% | 63.9% | $6,500,000 |
| 59 | Cordarrelle Patterson | 10.2% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 61.4% | $1,805,262 |
| 60 | Willie Snead | 14.3% | 15.9% | 19.2% | 11.1% | 60.5% | $480,000 |
| 61 | Michael Floyd | 13.2% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 25.0% | 60.3% | $3,458,300 |
| 62 | Terrance Williams | 14.0% | 15.3% | 19.6% | 11.1% | 59.9% | $724,243 |
| 63 | Sammie Coates | 13.1% | 11.5% | 22.7% | 11.8% | 59.1% | $727,879 |
| 64 | Pierre Garcon | 17.1% | 16.7% | 16.6% | 8.3% | 58.6% | $8,500,000 |
| 65 | Victor Cruz | 15.2% | 13.7% | 17.2% | 12.5% | 58.6% | $7,166,667 |
| 66 | Seth Roberts | 13.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 23.5% | 58.2% | $525,000 |
| 67 | DeSean Jackson | 17.4% | 13.9% | 17.4% | 8.3% | 57.0% | $8,000,000 |
| 68 | Cameron Meredith | 13.4% | 14.9% | 16.0% | 12.5% | 56.7% | $527,000 |
| 69 | Nelson Agholor | 15.7% | 14.0% | 14.8% | 11.1% | 55.6% | $2,344,343 |
| 70 | John Brown | 15.3% | 14.4% | 16.7% | 8.3% | 54.8% | $699,725 |
| 71 | Chris Hogan | 10.8% | 10.9% | 18.5% | 12.5% | 52.8% | $4,000,000 |
| 72 | Marqise Lee | 14.1% | 17.2% | 19.8% | 0.0% | 51.2% | $1,293,506 |
| 73 | Dorial Green-Beckham | 13.5% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 50.0% | $1,400,901 |
| 74 | Eric Decker | 7.4% | 5.6% | 10.5% | 25.0% | 48.5% | $7,250,000 |
| 75 | Kendall Wright | 8.8% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 47.8% | $2,054,613 |
| 76 | Quinton Patton | 14.6% | 16.4% | 16.5% | 0.0% | 47.5% | $637,875 |
| 77 | Adam Humphries | 14.1% | 15.8% | 17.4% | 0.0% | 47.4% | $480,000 |
| 78 | Tajae Sharpe | 18.5% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 0.0% | 47.4% | $653,721 |
| 79 | Brice Butler | 9.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 22.2% | 45.8% | $556,875 |
| 80 | Dontrelle Inman | 12.9% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 6.7% | 45.3% | $600,000 |
| 81 | Danny Amendola | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 18.8% | 44.9% | $4,750,000 |
| 82 | Corey Brown | 12.7% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 44.2% | $515,000 |
| 83 | Devin Funchess | 8.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 20.0% | 43.5% | $1,380,223 |
| 84 | Chris Conley | 13.3% | 13.5% | 16.2% | 0.0% | 43.0% | $780,922 |
| 85 | JJ Nelson | 7.7% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 16.7% | 42.3% | $622,450 |
| 86 | Jermaine Kearse | 13.5% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 0.0% | 40.3% | $4,500,000 |
| 87 | Corey Coleman | 4.3% | 3.9% | 8.9% | 22.2% | 39.4% | $2,913,746 |
| 88 | Phillip Dorsett | 10.0% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 6.3% | 39.0% | $2,033,853 |
| 89 | Tyler Boyd | 13.2% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 0.0% | 39.0% | $1,064,743 |
| 90 | Ted Ginn | 12.4% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 37.9% | $2,100,000 |
| 91 | Andre Johnson | 8.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 14.3% | 33.5% | $1,867,500 |
| 92 | Russell Shepard | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 14.3% | 32.8% | $1,671,000 |
| 93 | Josh Huff | 7.4% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 11.1% | 32.1% | $705,236 |
| 94 | Vincent Jackson | 11.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 31.8% | $11,111,111 |
| 95 | Kevin White | 12.3% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 31.5% | $4,140,762 |
| 96 | Tyler Lockett | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 0.0% | 31.4% | $829,688 |
| 97 | Ty Montgomery | 9.1% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 0.0% | 30.3% | $737,199 |
| 98 | Jaron Brown | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 29.7% | $1,671,000 |
| 99 | Donte Moncrief | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 12.5% | 29.6% | $702,130 |
| 100 | Ricardo Louis | 11.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 29.4% | $726,962 |
| 101 | Breshad Perriman | 11.0% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 28.9% | $2,176,333 |
| 102 | Eli Rogers | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 27.9% | $526,667 |
| 103 | Walt Powell | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 27.7% | $600,000 |
| 104 | Brandon Coleman | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 26.5% | $480,000 |
| 105 | Robby Anderson | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 26.4% | $540,000 |
| 106 | Jordan Norwood | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 24.4% | $880,000 |
| 107 | Jaelen Strong | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 24.3% | $820,338 |
| 108 | Tanner McEvoy | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 16.7% | 23.9% | $540,000 |
| 109 | Justin Hardy | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 10.5% | 23.7% | $705,205 |
| 110 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | 4.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 11.8% | 23.0% | $1,266,667 |
| 111 | Greg Salas | 2.6% | 2.9% | 6.2% | 11.1% | 22.8% | $785,000 |
| 112 | Kamar Aiken | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 22.8% | $2,553,000 |
| 113 | Bennie Fowler | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 10.0% | 22.7% | $525,000 |
| 114 | Taylor Gabriel | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 22.6% | $510,000 |
| 115 | Andre Holmes | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 11.8% | 21.1% | $2,000,000 |
| 122 | Paul Richardson | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 0.0% | 16.8% | $1,178,209 |
| 128 | Sammy Watkins | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 13.5% | $4,983,901 |
| 139 | Keenan Allen | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 8.6% | $11,250,000 |
| 140 | Harry Douglas | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 8.4% | $3,750,000 |
| 145 | Jarius Wright | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 6.4% | $3,700,000 |
| 148 | Josh Doctson | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 5.6% | $2,512,411 |
| 155 | Cecil Shorts | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 3.6% | $1,050,000 |
| 169 | Matt Slater | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | $1,800,000 |
| 177 | Dwayne Harris | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | $3,500,000 |
| 178 | Devin Hester | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | $1,100,000 |
| 181 | Keshawn Martin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | $1,062,500 |
| 186 | Laquon Treadwell | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | $2,483,745 |
| 187 | Eric Weems | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | $1,140,000 |
With the second round of the 2024 draft in the books I wanted to go…
With the first round of the 2024 draft in the books I wanted to go…
For those who are premium subscribers I put together a pdf file breaking down the…
With only a few days before the 2024 NFL Draft, it's that time again to…
Every year as the draft approaches I like to look at different trends over the…
In this week's OTC Podcast: Devonta Smith signs a huge extension Eagles salary cap strategies…
