With every team reporting to camp we still have two rookie who remain unsigned- Zach Wilson of the New York Jets and Trey Lance of the San Francisco 49ers. It is really inexcusable for teams at this stage to not have their rookies signed. Every year we project the contracts and are usually within $100 of the entire four year total so there is nothing that goes into that part of the process. So let’s look at what the issues could be.
Overall, this is basically meaningless. If a player is good it doesn’t matter if he does or does not have a guaranteed salary and you should be going into this with all positive thoughts. How many players in the top 10 had their guarantees void, thus protecting the team? Since 2011 just three- Dion Jordan, Justin Gilbert, and Leonard Fournette. Of the three only Fournette’s was for something that might be an issue with a guarantee clause while the other two were hit for standard stuff.
So if this is the issue for either team they are either breaking with precedent or are simply waiting until the last second to avoid making a payment until it is absolutely necessary, which is not really in the best interest of the team.
Here is the reality- it almost never comes into play. I looked at every top 10 selection since 2011 and determined their rookie contract outcome. Of the 71 draft picks who have already reached a rookie contract outcome guess how many an offset would have come into play? One. Ereck Flowers. That is it. Of the other players who were released outright they had already voided their guarantees or simply never were signed to play anywhere else. So really what are you fighting over? A 1 to 3% chance to recover about 3% of the entire contract value. I’m sure you can pat yourself on the back for that while sitting on the couch after you were fired for drafting a bust.
Teams should give their top picks the best chances to succeed and haggling over all these things isn’t it. Ultimately Im sure these teams will use some modified no offset roster bonuses which is a solution that could have been reached ages ago. They can also dangle no offsets and in return ask for no lump sum payments. Use it as a bargaining chip but if you lose out in this part of the draft are you really hurt because of it?
My guess is one is waiting on the other to sign. If Wilson gets the big bonus and no offsets it gives Lance a reason to dig in on that and vice versa. The Jets may also be hoping to get the 49ers in as a data point on a more team friendly structure.
Hopefully both teams get their deals done ASAP. At least in the 49ers case they have a veteran QB on the roster and he is the one who they claim they are going to start. The Jets do not have that luxury. They decided not to waste the resources on a backup with experience so they are all in on Wilson. Having him miss even one practice is just bad. You have a new coach and new culture. Don’t be the same old Jets at the negotiating table and get them off to a rocky start. That is far more important the $1M you might save four years from now if Wilson is a disaster.
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