Now that all decisions on fifth year options for the 2020 first round picks have been made, this would be a good time to observe how the contract mechanism, first introduced in the 2011 CBA, has fared over the course of a decade.
Note that the five players that were extended before a decision even needed to be made on their fifth year option (Whitney Mercilus, Lane Johnson, Christian McCaffrey, Kolton Miller, Jordan Love) are classified in the green Exercised line. Also note that Justin Blackmon is classified as Terminated even though there is a chance he is still on the Jaguars’ Reserve/Suspended list. I have also classified Jeff Okudah’s contract as terminated, even though it was instead renegotiated so the Lions would pick up some of Okudah’s salary. According to Ian Rapoport, this made Okudah ineligible for the fifth year option. My guess is that the NFL ruled the renegotiation to be an entirely new contract, and one that did not include the fifth year option within it.
The average number of options picked up per draft is 19.1, and the median is 19.5. The most recent draft where the fifth year options have been decided, 2020, is notable for being the first one ever where more options were declined (14) than exercised (officially 12–if counting Love’s extension, 13). This could be aggravated by five players whose contracts were terminated. But it could also signal a change in attitude for the fifth year option due to a change in the 2020 CBA that fully guarantees the fifth year option, whereas in the 2011 CBA it was guaranteed only for injury. This change first applied to the 2018 NFL Draft, so the sample size is small–and indeed, 2018 had the second highest fifth year options picked up, but it’s a trend to watch in the future of drafts subject to the 2020 CBA in this regard.
Position | Exercised | Declined | Terminated | % Exercised |
TE | 7 | 1 | 0 | 87.5% |
IDL | 26 | 9 | 1 | 72.2% |
QB | 21 | 7 | 5 | 63.6% |
CB | 26 | 10 | 5 | 63.4% |
T | 24 | 12 | 2 | 63.2% |
S | 10 | 7 | 0 | 58.8% |
WR | 22 | 12 | 4 | 57.9% |
C | 4 | 3 | 0 | 57.1% |
G | 9 | 6 | 1 | 56.3% |
EDGE | 25 | 19 | 3 | 53.2% |
LB | 12 | 12 | 0 | 50% |
RB | 5 | 7 | 2 | 35.7% |
It is surprising to see tight end as the position with the most fifth year option pickups (Hayden Hurst the one exception) given the low value of the position, but only eight tight ends have been drafted in this period, so a small sample size may be at play. Conversely, it is also surprising to see edge rusher with a low exercise rate, and given the high volume of edge rushers drafted, it may suggest that the hit rate for the position in the first round is lower, even if drafting one high makes sense due to the value of the position.
Quarterback featured the most share of rookie contracts terminated before the fifth year option could be exercised, possibly another example of a highly desired position being reached for due to its sheer importance. And running back is quite notable for the poor exercise rate–yet another indication that drafting one in the first round is a poor process of draft capital management.
Team | Exercised | Declined | Terminated | % Exercised |
Texans | 8 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
Panthers | 9 | 1 | 0 | 90% |
Rams | 7 | 1 | 0 | 87.5% |
Chargers | 9 | 2 | 0 | 81.8% |
Falcons | 8 | 2 | 0 | 80% |
Bengals | 8 | 3 | 0 | 72.7% |
Saints | 8 | 3 | 0 | 72.7% |
Chiefs | 5 | 2 | 0 | 71.4% |
Packers | 7 | 3 | 0 | 70% |
Bucs | 7 | 3 | 0 | 70% |
Commanders | 6 | 2 | 1 | 66.7% |
Dolphins | 8 | 3 | 1 | 66.7% |
Bills | 6 | 3 | 0 | 66.7% |
Cowboys | 6 | 2 | 1 | 66.7% |
Jets | 7 | 4 | 0 | 63.6% |
49ers | 8 | 4 | 1 | 61.5% |
Ravens | 6 | 4 | 0 | 60% |
Lions | 6 | 3 | 1 | 60% |
Giants | 7 | 3 | 2 | 58.3% |
Colts | 4 | 2 | 1 | 57.1% |
Broncos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 55.6% |
Steelers | 5 | 4 | 0 | 50% |
Vikings | 7 | 6 | 1 | 50% |
Cardinals | 5 | 4 | 1 | 50% |
Patriots | 4 | 3 | 1 | 46.7% |
Browns | 7 | 3 | 5 | 46.7% |
Titans | 5 | 5 | 1 | 45.5% |
Eagles | 4 | 4 | 1 | 44.4% |
Bears | 3 | 4 | 1 | 37.5% |
Jaguars | 3 | 7 | 1 | 27.3% |
Raiders | 3 | 6 | 2 | 27.3% |
Seahawks | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0% |
Finally, here was a request after I initially published this article that was easy enough to crunch:
Somewhat not surprising, the 1st overall pick is the only pick that has had all 10 fifth year options picked up–although the rates for the 2nd and 3rd overall picks are not nearly as rosy. The 28th overall pick has only one fifth year option picked up–for Kelvin Benjamin, who failed to cash in on that fifth year as he was traded and then cut from his rookie contract.
With a sample size of only 10 players per pick (except for the 32nd overall pick, due to the Patriots being stripped of a first rounder in 2016 as punishment for Deflategate), there is much back and forth in the chart, but the trendline shows a reasonable decline from 80% at the top to 40% at the bottom.
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