I decided to fool around with my pass rusher rankings the other night and thought it might make an interesting post as we wind down the season. The way I try to look at pass rushers is a bit different so I’ll explain the methodology using the Chiefs’ Justin Houston, who rates as my most efficient pass rusher for the positions I looked at (34OLB, 43DE 3DE).
Using stats maintained by Pro Football Focus we can determine that when a QB drops back to pass without pressure he completes a pass 67.4% of the time. We consider that a success and anything else a failure on the play. When facing pressure a QB completes just 44.2% of his dropbacks that do not result in a sack. Using that data we can determine how many failures should result from a players pass rush attempts and how many theoretically occurred because of the pressure.
Houston has rushed the passer 300 times this year. On 300 dropbacks the QB should fail to complete a pass 97.9 times. However, only 242 of Houston’s snaps had no pressure. 14 plays resulted in a sack and 44 others resulted in a pressure. From those numbers we can estimate that 78.9 non-completions occurred without pressure, 14 failures occurred because of sacks, and another 24.6 non-completions because of pressure. For Houston that means his failures totaled 117.5, an increase of 20.1%. We can also say that this means Houston creates a failure 6.5% of the time.
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Who are the best in the NFL this seasons besides Houston? Connor Barwin ranks 2nd with an 18% increase followed by Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and Mario Williams. JJ Watt is the highest ranking 34 Defensive End with a 15% increase. Watt has rushed the passer a ridiculous 426 times according to PFF, which no doubt drives his numbers down since he is likely rushing on many plays that he would have no chance to generate a pressure.
It is probably worth noting that the most effective pass rusher on the season is Brandon Graham of the Eagles who didn’t make my list because he had less than 150 pass rush opportunities. The Eagles have never shown any faith to use him in more situations but generally his numbers jump off the page despite the limited opportunities.
Name value players not doing so well this year include Red Bryant (102/106), Haloti Ngata (94/106), Ahmad Brooks (85/106), Mathias Kiwanuka (83/106), Muhammad Wilkerson (79/106), and Michael Johnson (71/106).
We can also look at the players salary cap figures and compare their salary and performance to the average of the group to determine how much value was received by the team this year. Ideally we would be comparing this against the individual positions and separating veterans and rookies, but for our purposes this should do.
Our most undervalued players were Houston ($6.5M gained), Ayers ($5.7M), Pernell McPhee ($5.6M), Alex Okafor ($4.8M), and Aaron Lynch ($4.5M). The most overvalued are Ngata (-$13.8M), Williams (-$12.4M), Brian Orakpo (-$8.1M), Tamba Hali (-$7.7M), and Calais Campbell (-$7M).
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Here is the complete list. You should be able to sort the table by clicking on the headers
| Rank | Name | Team | Rush Snaps | % Failure Increase | Failures Per Rush | Cap Charge | True Value | Gain/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Houston | Chiefs | 300 | 20.1% | 6.5% | $1,598,812 | $8,130,428 | $6,531,616 |
| 2 | Connor Barwin | Eagles | 248 | 18.6% | 6.1% | $4,900,000 | $7,522,482 | $2,622,482 |
| 3 | Elvis Dumervil | Ravens | 264 | 17.4% | 5.7% | $3,375,000 | $7,045,370 | $3,670,370 |
| 4 | Robert Ayers | Giants | 210 | 17.1% | 5.6% | $1,250,000 | $6,931,917 | $5,681,917 |
| 5 | Mario Williams | Bills | 314 | 15.8% | 5.2% | $18,800,000 | $6,400,202 | -$12,399,798 |
| 6 | Pernell McPhee | Ravens | 238 | 15.4% | 5.0% | $681,140 | $6,249,239 | $5,568,099 |
| 7 | Jerry Hughes | Bills | 315 | 15.3% | 5.0% | $3,995,000 | $6,214,686 | $2,219,686 |
| 8 | JJ Watt | Texans | 426 | 15.0% | 4.9% | $4,575,567 | $6,090,168 | $1,514,601 |
| 9 | Junior Galette | Saints | 300 | 14.5% | 4.7% | $2,950,000 | $5,890,328 | $2,940,328 |
| 10 | Ryan Kerrigan | Redskins | 307 | 14.2% | 4.6% | $2,774,639 | $5,746,904 | $2,972,265 |
| 11 | Ziggy Ansah | Lions | 269 | 14.1% | 4.6% | $4,226,023 | $5,701,705 | $1,475,682 |
| 12 | Trent Cole | Eagles | 275 | 14.1% | 4.6% | $6,600,000 | $5,692,273 | -$907,727 |
| 13 | Cameron Wake | Dolphins | 322 | 13.9% | 4.6% | $7,285,000 | $5,649,490 | -$1,635,510 |
| 14 | Alex Okafor | Cardinals | 188 | 13.4% | 4.4% | $613,607 | $5,428,936 | $4,815,329 |
| 15 | DeMarcus Ware | Broncos | 341 | 12.7% | 4.2% | $9,666,666 | $5,157,483 | -$4,509,183 |
| 16 | Chandler Jones | Patriots | 185 | 12.5% | 4.1% | $2,229,136 | $5,064,789 | $2,835,653 |
| 17 | Aaron Lynch | 49ers | 228 | 12.4% | 4.0% | $469,500 | $5,006,614 | $4,537,114 |
| 18 | Cliff Avril | Seahawks | 287 | 12.3% | 4.0% | $9,250,000 | $4,981,477 | -$4,268,523 |
| 19 | Erik Walden | Colts | 189 | 12.3% | 4.0% | $4,250,000 | $4,972,407 | $722,407 |
| 20 | Jason Hatcher | Redskins | 299 | 12.2% | 4.0% | $3,750,000 | $4,946,229 | $1,196,229 |
| 21 | Clay Matthews | Packers | 260 | 12.2% | 4.0% | $10,943,750 | $4,933,835 | -$6,009,915 |
| 22 | Vinny Curry | Eagles | 207 | 12.2% | 4.0% | $922,318 | $4,930,628 | $4,008,310 |
| 23 | Jacquies Smith | Buccaneers | 158 | 12.0% | 3.9% | $395,294 | $4,853,667 | $4,458,373 |
| 24 | Everson Griffen | Vikings | 347 | 11.9% | 3.9% | $8,200,000 | $4,835,293 | -$3,364,707 |
| 25 | Quinton Coples | Jets | 197 | 11.8% | 3.8% | $2,400,763 | $4,770,482 | $2,369,719 |
| 26 | Osi Umenyiora | Falcons | 205 | 11.7% | 3.8% | $4,750,000 | $4,738,543 | -$11,457 |
| 27 | Michael Bennett | Seahawks | 331 | 11.5% | 3.8% | $4,000,000 | $4,675,991 | $675,991 |
| 28 | Robert Quinn | Rams | 322 | 11.4% | 3.7% | $3,002,357 | $4,601,619 | $1,599,262 |
| 29 | Paul Kruger | Browns | 334 | 10.9% | 3.6% | $8,200,000 | $4,411,152 | -$3,788,848 |
| 30 | William Hayes | Rams | 230 | 10.8% | 3.5% | $3,845,000 | $4,360,947 | $515,947 |
| 31 | Julius Peppers | Packers | 307 | 10.8% | 3.5% | $3,500,000 | $4,357,112 | $857,112 |
| 32 | Jason Worilds | Steelers | 270 | 10.7% | 3.5% | $9,754,000 | $4,334,539 | -$5,419,461 |
| 33 | Jeremy Mincey | Cowboys | 273 | 10.6% | 3.5% | $1,250,000 | $4,297,159 | $3,047,159 |
| 34 | Calais Campbell | Cardinals | 299 | 10.6% | 3.4% | $11,250,000 | $4,280,930 | -$6,969,070 |
| 35 | Willie Young | Bears | 278 | 10.6% | 3.4% | $2,666,666 | $4,273,193 | $1,606,527 |
| 36 | Charles Johnson | Panthers | 329 | 10.5% | 3.4% | $11,220,000 | $4,257,952 | -$6,962,048 |
| 37 | Terrell Suggs | Ravens | 329 | 10.5% | 3.4% | $7,800,000 | $4,232,431 | -$3,567,569 |
| 38 | George Johnson | Lions | 202 | 10.4% | 3.4% | $570,000 | $4,224,416 | $3,654,416 |
| 39 | Mike Daniels | Packers | 241 | 10.2% | 3.3% | $645,146 | $4,150,286 | $3,505,140 |
| 40 | Carlos Dunlap | Bengals | 371 | 10.2% | 3.3% | $8,600,000 | $4,149,209 | -$4,450,791 |
| 41 | Olivier Vernon | Dolphins | 323 | 10.2% | 3.3% | $759,520 | $4,141,280 | $3,381,760 |
| 42 | Kroy Biermann | Falcons | 244 | 10.1% | 3.3% | $4,083,334 | $4,087,787 | $4,453 |
| 43 | Derrick Morgan | Titans | 253 | 9.8% | 3.2% | $3,541,668 | $3,953,434 | $411,766 |
| 44 | Whitney Mercilus | Texans | 282 | 9.7% | 3.2% | $2,082,026 | $3,945,711 | $1,863,685 |
| 45 | Malik Jackson | Broncos | 276 | 9.7% | 3.2% | $623,403 | $3,937,216 | $3,313,813 |
| 46 | Dwight Freeney | Chargers | 277 | 9.7% | 3.2% | $4,007,813 | $3,933,107 | -$74,706 |
| 47 | Mario Addison | Panthers | 204 | 9.6% | 3.1% | $865,000 | $3,873,036 | $3,008,036 |
| 48 | Jurrell Casey | Titans | 339 | 9.6% | 3.1% | $4,674,359 | $3,869,070 | -$805,289 |
| 49 | Cameron Heyward | Steelers | 326 | 9.5% | 3.1% | $2,133,418 | $3,855,148 | $1,721,730 |
| 50 | Brian Robison | Vikings | 335 | 9.5% | 3.1% | $5,700,000 | $3,837,600 | -$1,862,400 |
| 51 | Tamba Hali | Chiefs | 315 | 9.4% | 3.1% | $11,464,706 | $3,797,918 | -$7,666,788 |
| 52 | Rob Ninkovich | Patriots | 368 | 9.4% | 3.1% | $2,850,000 | $3,791,491 | $941,491 |
| 53 | Khalil Mack | Raiders | 296 | 9.4% | 3.1% | $3,395,818 | $3,787,456 | $391,638 |
| 54 | Corey Liuget | Chargers | 291 | 9.2% | 3.0% | $2,645,918 | $3,724,649 | $1,078,731 |
| 55 | Jared Allen | Bears | 340 | 9.1% | 3.0% | $3,000,000 | $3,704,639 | $704,639 |
| 56 | Sam Acho | Cardinals | 154 | 8.8% | 2.9% | $1,549,607 | $3,555,416 | $2,005,809 |
| 57 | Calvin Pace | Jets | 171 | 8.6% | 2.8% | $2,500,000 | $3,489,899 | $989,899 |
| 58 | Jason Jones | Lions | 293 | 8.4% | 2.7% | $3,683,333 | $3,413,716 | -$269,617 |
| 59 | Sheldon Richardson | Jets | 302 | 8.4% | 2.7% | $2,285,000 | $3,398,138 | $1,113,138 |
| 60 | Brian Orakpo | Redskins | 179 | 8.3% | 2.7% | $11,455,000 | $3,365,198 | -$8,089,802 |
| 61 | Chris Clemons | Jaguars | 313 | 8.2% | 2.7% | $5,187,500 | $3,335,015 | -$1,852,485 |
| 62 | Cameron Jordan | Saints | 368 | 8.2% | 2.7% | $2,459,991 | $3,329,244 | $869,253 |
| 63 | Jason Pierre Paul | Giants | 343 | 8.2% | 2.7% | $4,611,000 | $3,328,012 | -$1,282,988 |
| 64 | Justin Tuck | Raiders | 198 | 8.2% | 2.7% | $5,000,000 | $3,319,226 | -$1,680,774 |
| 65 | Antonio Smith | Raiders | 278 | 8.2% | 2.7% | $4,946,875 | $3,307,064 | -$1,639,811 |
| 66 | Lamarr Houston | Bears | 244 | 8.1% | 2.7% | $5,040,000 | $3,295,465 | -$1,744,535 |
| 67 | Brooks Reed | Texans | 201 | 8.1% | 2.6% | $1,496,015 | $3,283,610 | $1,787,595 |
| 68 | Wallace Gilberry | Bengals | 344 | 8.0% | 2.6% | $1,800,000 | $3,250,838 | $1,450,838 |
| 69 | Shaun Phillips | Titans | 176 | 8.0% | 2.6% | $1,975,000 | $3,242,920 | $1,267,920 |
| 70 | William Gholston | Buccaneers | 225 | 7.9% | 2.6% | $595,136 | $3,189,515 | $2,594,379 |
| 71 | Michael Johnson | Buccaneers | 235 | 7.8% | 2.5% | $9,000,000 | $3,152,598 | -$5,847,402 |
| 72 | Justin Smith | 49ers | 299 | 7.8% | 2.5% | $6,936,666 | $3,143,093 | -$3,793,573 |
| 73 | Trent Murphy | Redskins | 211 | 7.7% | 2.5% | $813,236 | $3,114,724 | $2,301,488 |
| 74 | Bjoern Werner | Colts | 276 | 7.6% | 2.5% | $1,794,636 | $3,091,783 | $1,297,147 |
| 75 | George Selvie | Cowboys | 176 | 7.6% | 2.5% | $730,000 | $3,079,184 | $2,349,184 |
| 76 | Ray McDonald | 49ers | 347 | 7.5% | 2.5% | $3,230,985 | $3,056,637 | -$174,348 |
| 77 | Eugene Sims | Rams | 234 | 7.5% | 2.5% | $1,216,684 | $3,054,880 | $1,838,196 |
| 78 | Jabaal Sheard | Browns | 266 | 7.4% | 2.4% | $1,619,625 | $3,012,386 | $1,392,761 |
| 79 | Muhammad Wilkerson | Jes | 339 | 7.3% | 2.4% | $2,187,500 | $2,942,242 | $754,742 |
| 80 | Derrick Shelby | Dolphins | 160 | 7.0% | 2.3% | $573,334 | $2,846,773 | $2,273,439 |
| 81 | Tommy Kelly | Cardinals | 307 | 6.9% | 2.3% | $955,000 | $2,806,934 | $1,851,934 |
| 82 | Cory Redding | Colts | 307 | 6.9% | 2.2% | $4,391,668 | $2,788,700 | -$1,602,968 |
| 83 | Mathias Kiwanuka | Giants | 291 | 6.8% | 2.2% | $5,000,000 | $2,753,590 | -$2,246,410 |
| 84 | Derek Wolfe | Broncos | 332 | 6.8% | 2.2% | $1,420,036 | $2,752,308 | $1,332,272 |
| 85 | Ahmad Brooks | 49ers | 220 | 6.7% | 2.2% | $4,503,750 | $2,712,603 | -$1,791,147 |
| 86 | Andre Branch | Jaguars | 180 | 6.6% | 2.2% | $1,388,164 | $2,690,562 | $1,302,398 |
| 87 | Mike Neal | Packers | 272 | 6.5% | 2.1% | $3,750,000 | $2,617,805 | -$1,132,195 |
| 88 | Fletcher Cox | Eagles | 362 | 6.4% | 2.1% | $2,793,054 | $2,611,554 | -$181,500 |
| 89 | Desmond Bryant | Browns | 281 | 6.3% | 2.0% | $4,000,000 | $2,533,961 | -$1,466,039 |
| 90 | Allen Bailey | Chiefs | 337 | 6.0% | 2.0% | $2,808,986 | $2,438,325 | -$370,661 |
| 91 | Wes Horton | Panthers | 153 | 6.0% | 1.9% | $498,333 | $2,411,967 | $1,913,634 |
| 92 | Jared Crick | Texans | 253 | 5.9% | 1.9% | $667,875 | $2,369,848 | $1,701,973 |
| 93 | Brett Keisel | Steelers | 250 | 5.7% | 1.8% | $1,250,000 | $2,294,211 | $1,044,211 |
| 94 | Haloti Ngata | Ravens | 275 | 5.4% | 1.8% | $16,000,000 | $2,180,260 | -$13,819,740 |
| 95 | Dominique Easley | Patriots | 163 | 5.2% | 1.7% | $1,327,918 | $2,104,369 | $776,451 |
| 96 | Ricky Jean-Francois | Colts | 260 | 5.1% | 1.7% | $5,125,000 | $2,084,371 | -$3,040,629 |
| 97 | Quanterus Smith | Broncos | 153 | 5.1% | 1.7% | $468,000 | $2,071,853 | $1,603,853 |
| 98 | Malliciah Goodman | Falcons | 196 | 4.7% | 1.5% | $594,252 | $1,911,370 | $1,317,118 |
| 99 | Robert Geathers | Bengals | 271 | 4.7% | 1.5% | $2,700,000 | $1,903,755 | -$796,245 |
| 100 | Kendall Reyes | Chargers | 255 | 4.4% | 1.4% | $1,125,817 | $1,797,186 | $671,369 |
| 101 | Chris Jones | Patriots | 203 | 4.2% | 1.4% | $495,000 | $1,689,715 | $1,194,715 |
| 102 | Red Bryant | Jaguars | 152 | 3.7% | 1.2% | $5,468,750 | $1,479,888 | -$3,988,862 |
| 103 | Tim Jamison | Texans | 252 | 3.6% | 1.2% | $840,000 | $1,475,515 | $635,515 |
| 104 | Cam Thomas | Steelers | 170 | 2.9% | 1.0% | $1,500,000 | $1,186,606 | -$313,394 |
| 105 | Cedric Thornton | Eagles | 200 | 2.5% | 0.8% | $645,000 | $1,008,615 | $363,615 |
| 106 | Jarvis Jenkins | Redskins | 165 | 2.2% | 0.7% | $1,492,667 | $873,260 | -$619,407 |
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