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It’s been an interesting final couple of weeks to the 2014 season. Most of the top teams in the NFL have fared poorly down the stretch, with falling win projections and performance. The exceptions are the Patriots, who have been more or less status quo over the period, and the Seahawks who have taken over the NFC.
The team coming on the strongest at the end of the season has actually been the Cowboys who have pulled off two upsets against the Eagles and Colts, and in general played much better as of late. Also playing much better have been the Giants and Falcons. Atlanta can make the playoffs and would have a chance at beating both the Cardinals and Lions if they hosted those teams. Next week we’ll see how off the predicted wins ended up being from the real thing.
| Rank | Change | Team | Scoring Efficiency | Defensive Efficiency | Total Efficiency | Projected Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | – | Patriots | 39.2% | 12.8% | 52.0% | 12.9 |
| 2 | +3 | Seahawks | 11.8% | 28.2% | 40.0% | 11.8 |
| 3 | -1 | Broncos | 40.5% | -1.6% | 39.0% | 11.6 |
| 4 | -1 | Packers | 33.6% | 3.2% | 36.8% | 11.5 |
| 5 | +1 | Ravens | 10.6% | 14.7% | 25.3% | 10.4 |
| 6 | -2 | Colts | 27.8% | -3.1% | 24.8% | 10.3 |
| 7 | +7 | Cowboys | 20.4% | 1.3% | 21.7% | 10.0 |
| 8 | – | Eagles | 30.6% | -11.8% | 18.8% | 9.7 |
| 9 | +1 | Chiefs | -2.2% | 17.7% | 15.5% | 9.5 |
| 10 | -2 | Bills | -2.9% | 17.7% | 14.8% | 9.4 |
| 11 | – | Dolphins | 12.2% | 2.5% | 14.7% | 9.4 |
| 12 | +3 | Texans | -2.5% | 15.3% | 12.8% | 9.2 |
| 13 | +1 | Steelers | 19.9% | -9.1% | 10.8% | 9.0 |
| 14 | -2 | Lions | -16.3% | 26.6% | 10.4% | 9.0 |
| 15 | +1 | Bengals | 0.4% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.0 |
| 16 | -5 | Cardinals | -11.8% | 20.5% | 8.8% | 8.9 |
| 17 | – | Chargers | 4.2% | 0.6% | 4.9% | 8.4 |
| 18 | +5 | Giants | 4.4% | -9.2% | -4.7% | 7.5 |
| 19 | +5 | Falcons | 9.3% | -15.2% | -5.9% | 7.4 |
| 20 | -2 | Rams | -4.8% | -1.4% | -6.2% | 7.4 |
| 21 | -1 | Vikings | -9.7% | 2.7% | -7.0% | 7.3 |
| 22 | -3 | Saints | 10.4% | -19.3% | -8.9% | 7.1 |
| 23 | -2 | 49ers | -16.8% | 7.5% | -9.3% | 7.1 |
| 24 | – | Browns | -19.4% | 6.1% | -13.3% | 6.8 |
| 25 | – | Panthers | -12.9% | -5.9% | -18.8% | 6.2 |
| 26 | – | Bears | -7.2% | -24.6% | -31.8% | 5.0 |
| 27 | – | Jets | -26.7% | -7.0% | -33.7% | 4.8 |
| 28 | – | Redskins | -18.6% | -17.0% | -35.6% | 4.6 |
| 29 | – | Buccaneers | -28.1% | -13.5% | -41.6% | 4.1 |
| 30 | +1 | Raiders | -23.9% | -21.3% | -45.1% | 3.7 |
| 31 | -1 | Jaguars | -35.2% | -10.0% | -45.2% | 3.7 |
| 32 | – | Titans | -29.9% | -22.6% | -52.5% | 3.0 |
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