Looking Ahead: 2014 Salary Cap Estimates

[adsenseyu1]

With the 2013 season effectively over for many teams I thought it would be a good time to take a look ahead at salary cap space in 2014. I think at this point we have a pretty good idea about cap carryover and can base the salary cap in 2014 on an estimated $125 million.

While these estimates should provide a pretty good guide there are a few things to take into account. First of all remember that these are OTC’s salary estimates (which are usually pretty accurate) and not a confirmed report. Second, the 2014 salary commitments will rise due to the earning of contract escalators for performance. For teams with 2010 draft picks on the roster these can reduce cap space by millions. Third, while we estimate carryover figures we do not have any adjustments yet. Adjustments can be positive (such as accounting for bonus money forfeited due to drug suspensions) or negative (NLTBEs actually earned). These adjustments can apply on both a teamwide and an individual basis. In many cases these are huge amounts that essentially lead to double counting. Imagine if a player has a NLTBE bonus in 2013 and 2014 for $2 million and he earns that bonus in 2013. What happens is that the teams cap space will be reduced in 2014 by $2 million to account for the earning of the NLTBE and the individuals cap charge will increase in 2014 by another $2 million to reflect the change in status from NLTBE to LTBE. Just like that a team has lost $4 million in projected cap space.

In the cap table you will notice two estimates. The first estimate is the cap space estimated by the current size of the roster. The second estimate is a teams’ “effective cap space” which is the amount of cap room that a team will have once its roster reaches 51 players. Usually teams sign players to futures contracts in January and February to flesh out their roster. The minimum salary for these players will be $420,000. Some receive small bonuses but for the most part $420,000 is a good cap charge estimate.

By our estimates the average cap space next year should be just under $18 million per team with $14.7 million being the effective cap space. The teams with big spending allowances will be the Raiders ($70.8M/$62.8M), Jaguars (57.0M/54.9M), Browns ($48.5M/$48.5M), Bears ($45.6M/$36.4M), Colts ($37.7M/$34.3M), Dolphins ($37.7M/$33M), and Bills ($35.1M/$32.2M).

The teams with the most trouble look to be the Seahawks ($3.79M/$759K), Rams ($2.5M/$411K), Chargers ($101K over/$1.3M over), Lions ($1.3M/4.1M over), Steelers ($9.2M Over/$13M over), Saints (11.5M over/$15.3M over), and the Cowboys ($20.7M over/$21.6M over).

We’ll be constantly updating our databases as soon as we become aware of any contract changes and feel free to email any contract information you may come across or would like to share with us. The more accurate we can be with our numbers the more services we can provide fans, media, agents, and anyone else involved in the sport. You can also use our salary cap calculators for your favorite team to try your hand at playing fantasy GM for 2014.

2014 Salary Cap Estimates

[adsenseyu4]

[adsenseyu2]

[subscribe2]