The chart below compares the Expected Contract Value with the stated contract value for each contract of $10 million or more signed during the 2016 offseason. Expected Contract Value 1.1 is applied at the time of signing. Expected Contract Value 1.1 takes into account the nature and timing of contract amounts, the resulting relationship between dead money and APY in each year of the contract, the length of the contract, and the position and age of the player. Expected Contract Value 1.1 is therefore a performance-neutral measurement of expected contract earnings. As a result, the primary way a player can exceed or fall short of his Expected Contract Value is to perform better or worse than the performance expectations implied by his contract.
| Player |
Team |
Stated Contract Value |
Length |
Expected Contract Value |
% Expected to be Earned |
| Janoris Jenkins |
NYG |
$62,500,000 |
5 |
$45,456,714 |
73% |
| Byron Maxwell |
MIA |
$49,500,000 |
5 |
$27,419,095 |
55% |
| Malcolm Jenkins |
PHI |
$40,000,000 |
5 |
$26,580,492 |
66% |
| Sean Smith |
OAK |
$38,000,000 |
4 |
$24,967,580 |
66% |
| Rodney McLeod |
PHI |
$35,000,000 |
5 |
$24,060,495 |
69% |
| Tashaun Gipson |
JAX |
$36,000,000 |
5 |
$23,832,753 |
66% |
| George Iloka |
CIN |
$30,000,000 |
5 |
$20,924,969 |
70% |
| Jeremy Lane |
SEA |
$23,000,000 |
4 |
$16,638,860 |
72% |
| Eric Weddle |
BAL |
$26,000,000 |
4 |
$14,679,380 |
56% |
| Casey Hayward |
SD |
$15,300,000 |
3 |
$11,726,258 |
77% |
| Adam Jones |
CIN |
$22,000,000 |
3 |
$11,326,225 |
51% |
| Coty Sensabaugh |
LA |
$17,000,000 |
3 |
$10,057,344 |
59% |
| Isa Abdul Quddus |
MIA |
$12,750,000 |
3 |
$8,782,080 |
69% |
| Andrew Sendejo |
MIN |
$16,000,000 |
4 |
$8,079,526 |
50% |
| Brent Grimes |
TB |
$14,000,000 |
2 |
$7,813,054 |
56% |
| Tracy Porter |
CHI |
$12,000,000 |
3 |
$6,961,034 |
58% |
| Total |
$449,050,000 |
|
$289,305,859 |
64% |
The weighted average “% Expected to be Earned” was 70% for the 82 contracts signed this offseason for which we calculated Expected Contract Value. Historically, we have found this amount to be approximately 67%. In this light, the defensive backs as a group performed somewhat poorly in contract negotiations. A number of the contracts listed above with the lowest percentage of expected earnings – Sensabugh, Sendejo, Grimes, Jones and Maxwell – did not include signing bonuses. These players may have guaranteed salary amounts in the first two contract seasons, but without signing bonus proration they will have no protection from being released in year three and beyond.
The players who will play the 2016 season at only 26 years of age – George Iloka, Tashaun Gipson, Jeremy Lane and Rodney McLeod – probably should have pushed hard to sign contracts of only two seasons in length. None of them received full salary guarantees at the time of signing in the third contract season (i.e. 2018), so each gave his respective team two or three years of team options. These team options have value to the teams, so presumably the players received more guaranteed money and/or more money per year than they would have received on a two-year deal. But for these younger players I think the upside of reaching free agency again at age 28 in 2018 is worth giving up some amount of money during 2016-2017. Instead, these players have given up control of the entire prime of their respective careers to the teams, who hold all of the upside and none of the downside during the 2018, 2019 and 2020 seasons.
The ranking of Expected Contract Value generally mirrors the ranking of stated contract value, but the discrepancies – Eric Weddle and Adam Jones – highlight the impact that a player’s age has on the calculations. It is certainly possible that both players could play well enough that their teams decide to retain them through the conclusion of their contracts, but the number of (non-QB/K/P) players in the league playing on a sizeable contract during an age-34 contract season is quite small. The Expected Contract Value formula therefore heavily penalizes older players, but it still contemplates that some outliers will exist. This is why a player’s probability of remaining under contract in any given year will never be 0%.
Maxwell’s Expected Contract Value on the five seasons remaining on his contract with the Eagles prior to being traded was $28,655,730. He received more guaranteed money in 2016-2017 than previously scheduled, but this was more than offset by the reduction in gross money during 2016-2017 and a lower expected outcome in 2018 as a result of potential dead money protection accelerating onto the salary cap of the Eagles in connection with the trade. As a general matter, the acceleration of signing bonus proration against the salary cap of the original team results in lower expected earnings for traded players following a trade.
| Janoris Jenkins |
| Stated Value: $62,500,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
$100,000 |
99.6% |
$99,600 |
$15,900,000 |
| 2017 |
$100,000 |
95.9% |
$95,900 |
$12,900,000 |
| 2018 |
$11,000,000 |
72.9% |
$8,023,170 |
— |
| 2019 |
$10,250,000 |
49.8% |
$5,101,439 |
— |
| 2020 |
$12,250,000 |
27.2% |
$3,336,560 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$16,656,714 |
$28,800,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$45,456,714 (73%) |
| Byron Maxwell |
| Stated Value: $49,500,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
96.7% |
— |
$8,500,000 |
| 2017 |
$7,000,000 |
77.6% |
$1,429,602 |
$3,000,000 |
| 2018 |
$10,000,000 |
51.8% |
$5,177,814 |
— |
| 2019 |
$10,000,000 |
33.6% |
$3,356,229 |
— |
| 2020 |
$11,000,000 |
17.1% |
$1,885,937 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$16,349,583 |
$11,500,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$27,349,583 (55%) |
| Malcolm Jenkins |
| Stated Value: $40,500,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
99.2% |
— |
$10,000,000 |
| 2017 |
— |
94.9% |
— |
$6,000,000 |
| 2018 |
$8,500,000 |
64.4% |
$5,477,077 |
— |
| 2019 |
$8,250,000 |
41.2% |
$3,399,267 |
— |
| 2020 |
$7,750,000 |
22.0% |
$1,704,148 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$10,580,492 |
$16,000,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$26,580,492 (66%) |
| Sean Smith |
| Stated Value: $38,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
$250,000 |
97.5% |
$243,770 |
$10,750,000 |
| 2017 |
$5,250,000 |
78.3% |
$4,112,076 |
$4,250,000 |
| 2018 |
$8,500,000 |
44.2% |
$3,760,157 |
— |
| 2019 |
$9,000,000 |
20.6% |
$1,851,578 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$9,967,580 |
$15,000,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$24,967,580 (66%) |
| Rodney McLeod |
| Stated Value: $35,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
99.6% |
— |
$9,000,000 |
| 2017 |
— |
97.7% |
— |
$4,000,000 |
| 2018 |
$6,000,000 |
82.0% |
$4,918,061 |
— |
| 2019 |
$7,500,000 |
53.8% |
$4,036,042 |
— |
| 2020 |
$8,500,000 |
24.8% |
$2,106,391 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$11,060,495 |
$13,000,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$ 24,060,495 (69%) |
| Tashaun Gipson |
| Stated Value: $36,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
$500,000 |
99.4% |
$496,775 |
$7,000,000 |
| 2017 |
$500,000 |
96.0% |
$480,010 |
$5,000,000 |
| 2018 |
$6,250,000 |
76.4% |
$4,777,605 |
— |
| 2019 |
$8,250,000 |
47.2% |
$3,897,836 |
— |
| 2020 |
$8,500,000 |
25.7% |
$2,180,528 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$11,832,753 |
$12,000,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$23,832,753 (66%) |
| George Iloka |
| Stated Value: $30,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
$2,600,000 |
97.2% |
$2,527,640 |
$5,000,000 |
| 2017 |
$4,800,000 |
89.4% |
$4,290,645 |
— |
| 2018 |
$5,600,000 |
74.2% |
$4,155,919 |
— |
| 2019 |
$6,000,000 |
51.9% |
$3,111,687 |
— |
| 2020 |
$6,000,000 |
30.7% |
$1,839,078 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$15,924,969 |
$5,000,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$20,924,969 (70%) |
| Jeremy Lane |
| Stated Value: $23,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
98.7% |
— |
$7,000,000 |
| 2017 |
$4,000,000 |
90.3% |
$3,612,905 |
— |
| 2018 |
$6,000,000 |
64.4% |
$3,862,685 |
— |
| 2019 |
$6,000,000 |
36.1% |
$2,163,271 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$9,638,860 |
$7,000,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$16,638,860 (72%) |
| Eric Weddle |
| Stated Value: $26,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
95.5% |
— |
$9,000,000 |
| 2017 |
$4,000,000 |
72.5% |
$2,900,189 |
— |
| 2018 |
$6,500,000 |
31.1% |
$2,024,213 |
— |
| 2019 |
$6,500,000 |
11.6% |
$754,978 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$5,679,380 |
$9,000,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$14,679,380 (56%) |
| Casey Hayward |
| Stated Value: $15,300,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
96.8% |
— |
$6,800,000 |
| 2017 |
$4,250,000 |
73.0% |
$3,101,858 |
— |
| 2018 |
$4,250,000 |
42.9% |
$1,824,400 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$4,926,258 |
$6,800,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$11,726,258 (77%) |
| Coty Sensabaugh |
| Stated Value: $14,500,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
96.3% |
— |
$4,500,000 |
| 2017 |
$4,000,000 |
68.5% |
$2,740,487 |
$1,000,000 |
| 2018 |
$5,000,000 |
36.3% |
$1,816,857 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$4,557,344 |
$5,500,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$10,057,344 |
| Isa Abdul-Quddus |
| Stated Value: $12,750,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
$25,000 |
97.1% |
$24,265 |
$4,225,000 |
| 2017 |
$4,250,000 |
69.2% |
$2,941,606 |
— |
| 2018 |
$4,250,000 |
37.4% |
$1,591,209 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$4,557,080 |
$4,225,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$8,782,080 (69%) |
| Tracy Porter |
| Stated Value: $12,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
$250,000 |
89.8% |
$224,549 |
$4,250,000 |
| 2017 |
$3,750,000 |
45.5% |
$1,706,669 |
— |
| 2018 |
$3,750,000 |
20.8% |
$779,816 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$2,711,034 |
$4,250,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$6,961,034 (58%) |
Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nick Barton.
Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate M&A associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.
Nick Barton is a junior at the McDonough School Business at Georgetown University. He is majoring in Finance and Operations and Information Management. Nick currently interns with an NFL team . His prior work experience includes interning with CollegeSplits and Dynamic Sports Solutions, and working as a research assistant for the Center of Applied Research of the Apostolate.