Free Agency AfterMath: Commitment Index and 2017 True Cap Space

As most of the prominent free agents have been signed and much of league-wide salary cap space has been spent, today I will examine the ramifications the transactions have had on Commitment Index and True Cap Space for 2017.

Commitment Index:

Commitment Index measures net future salary cap commitments (prorated signing bonus amounts and guaranteed base salaries net of current salary cap space) relative to the average net future cap commitments of all teams. The primary concepts are as follows:

• Only actual commitments are relevant to evaluating future spending capacity (as opposed to scheduled salary cap numbers of existing contracts).
• Committing future salary cap space is only potentially detrimental to the extent the team does not possess at least an equal amount of current salary cap space available to be carried forward to future years to negate the future cap commitments.
• Net future salary cap commitments should be measured on a relative basis because a team only disadvantages itself in terms of future spending capacity to the extent it makes more net future cap commitments than the other teams in the league (if every team “mortgages its future” to the same degree, then no team has really “mortgaged its future” at all).
• Scoring highly in Commitment Index is not necessary a “bad” situation to be in, but it indicates a lack of flexibility in comparison to other teams. In that sense, whether or not the team is in long-term salary cap trouble depends in part on the strength of the roster to which the team has committed.

These numbers are based on what is included on Over The Cap as of the evening of Sunday March 20^th. The following contracts are known to not be included: Ian Williams, Steve McLendon, Zane Beadles, Kelvin Beachum, Tyvon Branch, Jarvis Jenkins and Quinten Coples.

The Texans and Giants made the largest leaps up the Commitment Index rankings, and farther down the list the Raiders and Jaguars began to move up from the bottom. The teams that have largely sat out of free agency – such as the Browns, Colts and Packers – have slid down the list as other teams have moved ahead of them in terms of net future cap commitments. The lack of transactions of some other teams that have been historically active in free agency – such as the Cowboys, Bills, Saints and Dolphins – would have been predictable by looking at their Commitment Index scores measured as of last summer.

A number of perennially successful teams – such as the Patriots, Seahawks, Broncos and Packers – occupy the middle of the Commitment Index rankings. These teams have talent on the roster worth committing to, but have avoided overextending themselves by committing too heavily to their then-current roster at any specific point in time. The Bengals should be commended for finding a way to keep a talented team largely under contract without actually making much of a true commitment in the contracts.

2017 True Cap Space:

The offseason transactions have also had an impact on the True Cap Space of each team in 2017. True Cap Space focuses on each team’s actual salary cap commitments, rather than the scheduled cap numbers of players currently under contract. The main point is that salary cap numbers can typically be avoided or manipulated through termination, trade or pay cut. However, certain amounts are fixed against the salary cap of each team. Prorated signing bonus amounts and dead money cannot be manipulated, traded, or deferred in any way. These amounts are completely “stuck” against the team’s salary cap. True Cap Space also considers fully guaranteed base salary, but in an environment where the Eagles can offload unwanted guaranteed salary in trades without attaching draft pick sweeteners, it seems more appropriate to focus on prorated signing bonus amounts and dead money.

As the chart below shows, the Ravens have already used up roughly $52 million of the 2017 salary cap. This is cap commitment that cannot be traded or avoided, and it will remain on the books regardless of whether the associated players remain on the team. At the other end of the spectrum, the Buccaneers have used up less than $9 million of the 2017 salary cap. The Eagles lead the league in total 2017 commitments by a wide margin, but a significant chunk of this commitment comes in the form of guaranteed base salary, which means that it can be traded to other teams.

Over The Cap currently shows the Buccaneers as having $74.76 million worth of salary cap space in 2017 and the Panthers as having $74.29 million. But despite these nearly identical numbers, the Panthers have truly committed roughly $22.68 million more to the 2017 salary cap than the Buccaneers. This is why looking at salary cap space as it is traditionally reported is misleading – doing so obscures the degree to which scheduled cap numbers of players under contract are (or are not) malleable. The Buccaneers and the Panthers do not have the same degree of flexibility in 2017 as it would seem by looking solely at the amount of cap space; the Buccaneers have noticeably more flexibility.

I should clarify that this analysis speaks solely to flexibility. I am not considering the strength of rosters or the number of impending free agents or the number of upcoming draft picks. All of these factors contribute to a more nuanced picture of the salary cap situation that each team currently maintains for 2017. Instead, I am simply identifying the amount of 2017 salary cap space that each team no longer has at its disposal in shaping its 2017 roster. But given the unpredictable nature of the NFL, more flexibility is certainly preferable to less flexibility if all else is equal.

Bryce Johnston is the creator of Commitment Index and the co-creator of Expected Contract Value.  Bryce earned his Juris Doctor from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics