Categories: Expected Contract Value

Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts 3/12

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Ndamukong Suh
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$15,000	100.0%	$15,000	$26,485,000
2016	$15,000	99.0%	$14,850	$23,485,000
2017	$15,000	94.8%	$14,220	$9,985,000
2018	$17,000,000	50.5%	$8,585,000	—
2019	$19,000,000	34.0%	$6,460,000	—
2020	$18,360,000	16.6%	$3,047,760	—
Subtotal			$18,136,830	$59,955,000
Total			$78,091,830

Pass Catchers:

Jeremy Maclin
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$250,000	100.0%	$250,000	$12,750,000
2016	$250,000	97.8%	$244,500	$9,750,000
2017	$10,000,000	68.3%	$6,830,000	—
2018	$11,000,000	40.0%	$4,400,000	—
2019	$11,000,000	26.5%	$2,915,000	—
Subtotal			$14,639,500	$22,500,000
Total			$37,139,500

Randall Cobb
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$2,100,000	99.6%	$2,091,600	$13,000,000
2016	$5,900,000	93.8%	$5,534,200	—
2017	$9,500,000	68.6%	$6,517,000	—
2018	$9,500,000	46.1%	$4,379,500	—
Subtotal			$18,522,300	$13,000,000
Total			$31,522,300

Julius Thomas
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$100,000	99.6%	$99,600	$15,000,000
2016	$100,000	97.0%	$97,000	$6,000,000
2017	$7,100,000	65.6%	$4,657,600	—
2018	$8,600,000	37.9%	$3,259,400	—
2019	$9,100,000	26.0%	$2,366,000	—
Subtotal			$10,479,600	$21,000,000
Total			$31,479,600

Torrey Smith
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,250,000	99.5%	$1,243,750	$8,750,000
2016	$6,000,000	91.4%	$5,484,000	—
2017	$8,000,000	70.1%	$5,608,000	—
2018	$8,000,000	45.5%	$3,640,000	—
2019	$8,000,000	31.7%	$2,536,000	—
Subtotal			$18,511,750	$8,750,000
Total			$27,261,750

Running Backs:

Mark Ingram
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$100,000	99.9%	$99,900	$4,600,000
2016	$1,600,000	95.3%	$1,524,800	$1,500,000
2017	$3,600,000	66.2%	$2,383,200	—
2018	$4,600,000	40.2%	$1,849,200	—
Subtotal			$5,857,100	$6,100,000
Total			$11,957,100

Shane Vereen
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$100,000	98.7%	$98,700	$4,750,000
2016	$3,750,000	74.1%	$2,778,750	—
2017	$3,750,000	46.8%	$1,755,000	—
Subtotal			$4,632,450	$4,750,000
Total			$9,382,450

Frank Gore
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$1,000,000	96.4%	$964,000	$3,500,000
2016	$1,000,000	67.2%	$672,000	$3,000,000
2017	$3,500,000	14.3%	$500,500	—
Subtotal			$2,136,500	$6,500,000
Total			$8,636,500

Offensive Lineman:

Bryan Bulaga
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$2,000,000	99.3%	$1,986,000	$8,000,000
2016	$4,000,000	94.4%	$3,776,000	—
2017	$6,250,000	74.3%	$4,643,750	—
2018	$6,750,000	47.1%	$3,179,250	—
2019	$6,750,000	32.0%	$2,160,000	—
Subtotal			$15,745,000	$8,000,000
Total			$23,745,000 (70.4%)

Orlando Franklin
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.9%	—	$10,000,000
2016	—	97.2%	—	$5,500,000
2017	$6,000,000	62.9%	$3,774,000	—
2018	$6,750,000	34.4%	$2,322,000	—
2019	$7,250,000	21.3%	$1,544,250	—
Subtotal			$7,640,250	$15,500,000
Total			$23,140,250

Derek Newton
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.7%	—	$7,500,000
2016	$2,250,000	93.4%	$2,101,500	$2,500,000
2017	$4,750,000	67.9%	$3,225,250	—
2018	$4,750,000	44.8%	$2,128,000	—
2019	$4,750,000	32.6%	$1,548,500	—
Subtotal			$9,003,250	$10,000,000
Total			$19,003,250

Pass Rushers:

Jerry Hughes
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$150,000	99.7%	$149,550	$11,625,000
2016	$4,675,000	97.0%	$4,534,750	$6,000,000
2017	$7,550,000	76.6%	$5,783,300	—
2018	$7,500,000	48.3%	$3,622,500	—
2019	$7,500,000	30.1%	$2,257,500	—
Subtotal			$16,347,600	$17,625,000
Total			$33,972,600

Brandon Graham
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.6%	—	$9,000,000
2016	—	96.0%	—	$4,000,000
2017	$6,500,000	47.8%	$3,107,000	—
2018	$6,500,000	31.2%	$2,028,000	—
Subtotal			$5,135,000	$13,000,000
Total			$18,135,000

Defensive Backs:

Darrelle Revis
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.7%	—	$16,000,000
2016	—	95.9%	—	$17,000,000
2017	$9,000,000	64.8%	$5,832,000	$6,000,000
2018	$11,000,000	32.2%	$3,542,000	—
2019	$11,000,000	15.3%	$1,683,000	—
Subtotal			$11,057,000	$39,000,000
Total			$50,057,000

Devin McCourty
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$500,000	99.9%	$499,500	$17,500,000
2016	$500,000	98.1%	$490,500	$4,500,000
2017	$7,000,000	74.3%	$5,201,000	—
2018	$8,000,000	42.5%	$3,400,000	—
2019	$9,500,000	22.5%	$2,137,500	—
Subtotal			$11,728,500	$22,000,000
Total			$33,728,500

Kareem Jackson
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	$250,000	99.8%	$249,500	$14,000,000
2016	$250,000	96.5%	$241,250	$6,000,000
2017	$6,750,000	58.9%	$3,975,750	—
2018	$6,750,000	37.2%	$2,511,000	—
Subtotal			$6,977,500	$20,000,000
Total			$26,977,500

Brandon Flowers
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.9%	—	$10,250,000
2016	—	94.0%	—	$7,750,000
2017	$9,000,000	38.4%	$3,456,000	—
2018	$9,400,000	21.3%	$2,002,200	—
Subtotal			$5,458,200	$18,000,000
Total			$23,458,200

Buster Skrine
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	99.9%	—	$6,500,000
2016	—	96.6%	—	$6,500,000
2017	$6,000,000	53.7%	$3,222,000	—
2018	$6,000,000	37.5%	$2,250,000	—
Subtotal			$5,472,000	$13,000,000
Total			$18,472,000

Cary Williams
Year	Salary	Expected Outcome	Expected Value	Adjustment
2015	—	96.6%	—	$7,000,000
2016	$5,000,000	49.0%	$2,450,000	—
2017	$6,000,000	21.7%	$1,302,000	—
Subtotal			$3,752,000	$7,000,000
Total			$10,752,000

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.