Expected Contract Value: Quarterback Contract Comparison
As a result of the contract extensions signed by Cam Newton and Ryan Tannehill, as well as the ongoing discussion related to the contract negotiations of Russell Wilson, many NFL commentators have recently engaged in an exercise of contract comparison with respect to the largest quarterback contracts signed over the past several years. In terms of methodology, the usual suspects have been well represented: total stated contract amount, average annual value, fully guaranteed money, and three-year payout. But as I have previously explained, none of these metrics are adequate for valuing or comparing contracts.
Expected Contract Value can be used for more accurate contract comparison. As a refresher, the methodology is explained here. Below, I have listed the largest Expected Contract Value totals for quarterback contracts signed following the lockout. Farther down, I have displayed the forecasted likelihoods and the calculations for each contract. As you can see, there isn’t a particularly strong correlation between average annual value and Expected Contract Value, or between fully guaranteed money and Expected Contract Value. A contract’s stated value appears to say the most about its Expected Contract Value, but the hierarchy is still different, and the actual amounts are certainly misleading.
Some have also attempted to incorporate salary cap inflation into the contract comparison analysis, most often by stating the given contract’s average annual value as a percentage of the per-team NFL salary cap of the league year in which the contract was signed. I do not find this to be particularly relevant. First, average annual value assumes that all contract money is equally likely to be earned, and therefore fails to discount for the fact that money in later years of a contract (which often consists of larger salaries) is less likely to be earned than money in earlier years of a contract. Second, the NFL salary cap of a given league year should only be relevant with respect to the money actually earned by a player during that league year. Therefore, we do not need to adjust the average annual value of the contract to account for inflation. Instead, we only need to adjust the payments made to the player in prior league years to translate the contract into 2015 league year dollars. As a result, I have included in the individual charts calculations to adjust pre-2015 payments, and immediately below I show the ranking of inflation-adjusted Expected Contract Value totals.
The numbers are calculated based on the contracts as originally signed, not as they currently stand. For example, the fact that Tony Romo converted base salary into signing bonus in 2014 and 2015 is not considered. With respect to option bonuses and guaranteed base salary that is not fully guaranteed at signing, the numbers are calculated based on the opportunity that the team has to release the player prior to making the payment or fully guaranteeing the salary. But in subsequent years, the numbers are calculated based on the fact that the amount would have already been paid or guaranteed.
For example, Joe Flacco’s 2014 Save:Avg and Save:Cap are calculated prior to his option bonus being paid, but his 2015 Save:Avg and Save:Cap are calculated subsequent to his option bonus being paid. Alex Smith’s 2015 Save:Avg and Save:Cap are calculated prior to the 2015 base salary becoming fully guaranteed, but his 2016 Save:Avg and Save:Cap are calculated subsequent to the 2016 base salary becoming fully guaranteed, as the guarantee was triggered in 2015.
Some may take exception at the very low probabilities associated with certain contract years of the older quarterbacks (“Only a 7.8% likelihood that Peyton Manning plays out the 2015 season of this contract!”). Please keep in mind that the reason Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have had special careers is because they are the exception to most rules. While they should be celebrated for this, no projection system can be programmed to spot exceptions to rules. They have broken many records precisely because they have survived attrition and randomness and regression to the mean to a greater extent than is reasonable.
On the average, older players lose skill and get injured and choose to retire with greater frequency than younger players. And given that Peyton Manning had just missed an entire season with a serious neck injury at the time he signed his contract, placing an almost 10% likelihood on him playing for $20 million four seasons later actually sounds pretty reasonable. This neck injury is not considered in Expected Contract Value, but it illustrates the types of things that are indirectly included in Expected Contract Value through the 1,000+ inputs.Having said that, I have acknowledged in the past that Expected Contract Value undersells quarterback contracts for premier starters due to positional scarcity and the demonstrably different aging curve that the position enjoys relative to all other non-kicker positions. However, even if quarterback contracts result in Expected Contract Value totals that are smaller than would be accurate relative to other positions, such underestimation is applied equally within the position. As a result, I still think that it is fair to compare quarterback contracts using Expected Contract Value.
QB Expected Contract Value
| Player |
Stated Value |
Rank |
AAV |
Rank |
Full Guarantee |
Rank |
Expected Contract Value |
| Newton |
$103,800,000 |
6 |
$20,760,000 |
3 |
$41,000,000 |
4 |
$89,631,502 |
| Rodgers |
$110,000,000 |
4 |
$22,000,000 |
1 |
$56,750,000 |
1 |
$81,831,100 |
| Flacco |
$120,600,000 |
2 |
$20,100,000 |
5 |
$29,000,000 |
11 |
$80,829,399 |
| Ryan |
$103,750,000 |
7 |
$20,750,000 |
4 |
$42,000,000 |
2 |
$71,796,000 |
| Kaepernick |
$114,000,000 |
3 |
$19,000,000 |
9 |
$12,973,766 |
16 |
$68,984,666 |
| Cutler |
$126,700,000 |
1 |
$18,100,000 |
10 |
$38,000,000 |
7 |
$63,230,000 |
| Dalton |
$96,000,000 |
9 |
$16,000,000 |
14 |
$17,000,000 |
15 |
$59,965,097 |
| Romo |
$108,000,000 |
5 |
$18,000,000 |
11 |
$40,000,000 |
5 |
$59,756,000 |
| Brees |
$100,000,000 |
8 |
$20,000,000 |
6 |
$40,000,000 |
5 |
$59,474,000 |
| Stafford |
$53,000,000 |
16 |
$17,666,667 |
12 |
$41,500,000 |
3 |
$59,367,000 |
| Ben R. |
$87,400,000 |
11 |
$21,850,000 |
2 |
$31,000,000 |
10 |
$58,036,250 |
| Tannehill |
$77,000,000 |
13 |
$19,250,000 |
7 |
$21,500,000 |
12 |
$55,558,237 |
| Smith |
$68,000,000 |
14 |
$17,000,000 |
13 |
$19,000,000 |
13 |
$47,221,900 |
| Vick |
$80,000,000 |
12 |
$16,000,000 |
14 |
$32,500,000 |
9 |
$46,817,000 |
| Brady |
$57,000,000 |
15 |
$11,400,000 |
16 |
$33,000,000 |
8 |
$37,857,000 |
| Manning |
$96,000,000 |
9 |
$19,200,000 |
8 |
$18,000,000 |
14 |
$37,431,000 |
Inflation Adjusted ECV
| Player |
Expected Contract Value |
Rank |
Inflation Adjusted ECV |
| Newton |
$89,631,502 |
1 |
$89,631,502 |
| Rodgers |
$81,831,100 |
2 |
$88,980,895 |
| Flacco |
$80,829,399 |
3 |
$87,328,320 |
| Ryan |
$71,796,000 |
4 |
$77,650,750 |
| Kaepernick |
$68,984,666 |
5 |
$70,060,492 |
| Brees |
$59,474,000 |
9 |
$68,899,849 |
| Romo |
$59,756,000 |
8 |
$65,168,000 |
| Cutler |
$63,230,000 |
6 |
$64,962,500 |
| Stafford |
$59,367,000 |
10 |
$64,718,500 |
| Dalton |
$59,965,097 |
7 |
$61,357,303 |
| Roethlisberger |
$58,036,250 |
11 |
$58,036,250 |
| Tannehill |
$55,558,237 |
12 |
$55,558,237 |
| Vick |
$46,817,000 |
14 |
$54,610,963 |
| Smith |
$47,221,900 |
13 |
$48,684,900 |
| Brady |
$37,857,000 |
15 |
$43,126,000 |
| Manning |
$37,431,000 |
16 |
$42,774,760 |
Year by Year QB Breakdowns
| Cam Newton |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
— |
99.9% |
— |
$31,000,000 |
| 2016 |
$13,000,000 |
97.2% |
$12,636,000 |
$10,000,000 |
| 2017 |
$13,666,000 |
89.7% |
$12,258,402 |
— |
| 2018 |
$15,000,000 |
71.0% |
$10,650,000 |
— |
| 2019 |
$16,700,000 |
47.6% |
$7,949,200 |
— |
| 2020 |
$19,100,000 |
26.9% |
$5,137,900 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$48,631,502 |
$41,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$89,631,502 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2015 |
$31,000,000 |
— |
$31,000,000 |
| 2016 |
$22,636,000 |
— |
$22,636,000 |
| 2017 |
$12,258,402 |
— |
$12,258,402 |
| 2018 |
$10,650,000 |
— |
$10,650,000 |
| 2019 |
$7,949,200 |
— |
$7,949,200 |
| 2020 |
$5,137,900 |
— |
$5,137,900 |
| Total: |
|
|
$89,631,502 |
| Ryan Tannehill |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
— |
99.9% |
— |
$12.160,000 |
| 2016 |
— |
98.0% |
— |
$9,340,000 |
| 2017 |
$18,000,000 |
79.2% |
$14,256,000 |
— |
| 2018 |
$17,500,000 |
49.5% |
$8,662,500 |
— |
| 2019 |
$18,750,000 |
38.9% |
$7,293,750 |
— |
| 2020 |
$19,522,523 |
19.7% |
$3,845,987 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$34,058,237 |
$21,500,000 |
| Total |
|
$55,558,237 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2015 |
$12.160,000 |
— |
$12.160,000 |
| 2016 |
$9,340,000 |
— |
$9,340,000 |
| 2017 |
$14,256,000 |
— |
$14,256,000 |
| 2018 |
$8,662,500 |
— |
$8,662,500 |
| 2019 |
$7,293,750 |
— |
$7,293,750 |
| 2020 |
$3,845,987 |
— |
$3,845,987 |
| Total: |
|
|
$55,558,237 |
| Ben Roethlisberger |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$4,250,000 |
97.3% |
$4,135,250 |
$31,000,000 |
| 2016 |
$17,750,000 |
70.0% |
$12,425,000 |
— |
| 2017 |
$12,000,000 |
49.9% |
$5,988,000 |
— |
| 2018 |
$17,000,000 |
17.3% |
$2,941,000 |
— |
| 2019 |
$17,000,000 |
9.1% |
$1,547,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$27,036,250 |
$31,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$58,036,250 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2015 |
$37,135,250 |
— |
$37,135,250 |
| 2016 |
$12,425,000 |
— |
$12,425,000 |
| 2017 |
$5,988,000 |
— |
$5,988,000 |
| 2018 |
$2,941,000 |
— |
$2,941,000 |
| 2019 |
$1,547,000 |
— |
$1,547,000 |
| Total: |
|
|
$58,036,250 |
| Alex Smith |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2014 |
— |
99.7% |
— |
$19,000,000 |
| 2015 |
$12,000,000 |
81.2% |
$9,744,000 |
— |
| 2016 |
$14,200,000 |
86.5% |
$12,283,000 |
— |
| 2017 |
$13,300,000 |
28.3% |
$3,763,900 |
— |
| 2018 |
$17,000,000 |
14.3% |
$2,431,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$28,221,900 |
$19,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$47,221,900 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2014 |
$19,000,000 |
107.7% |
$20,463,000 |
| 2015 |
$9,744,000 |
— |
$9,744,000 |
| 2016 |
$12,283,000 |
— |
$12,283,000 |
| 2017 |
$3,763,900 |
— |
$3,763,900 |
| 2018 |
$2,431,000 |
— |
$2,431,000 |
| Total: |
|
|
$48,684,900 |
| Andy Dalton |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2014 |
$1,086,027 |
99.5% |
$1,080,597 |
$17,000,000 |
| 2015 |
$7,200,000 |
95.4% |
$6,868,800 |
— |
| 2016 |
$10,700,000 |
84.8% |
$9,073,600 |
— |
| 2017 |
$13,300,000 |
67.3% |
$8,950,900 |
— |
| 2018 |
$13,900,000 |
58.6% |
$8,145,400 |
— |
| 2019 |
$16,200,000 |
34.5% |
$5,589,000 |
— |
| 2020 |
$17,700,000 |
18.4% |
$3,256,800 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$42,965,097 |
$17,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$59,965,097 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2014 |
$18,080,597 |
107.7% |
$19,472,803 |
| 2015 |
$6,868,800 |
— |
$6,868,800 |
| 2016 |
$9,073,600 |
— |
$9,073,600 |
| 2017 |
$8,950,900 |
— |
$8,950,900 |
| 2018 |
$8,145,400 |
— |
$8,145,400 |
| 2019 |
$5,589,000 |
— |
$5,589,000 |
| 2020 |
$3,256,800 |
— |
$3,256,800 |
| Total: |
|
|
$61,357,303 |
| Colin Kaepernick |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2014 |
$100,000 |
99.8% |
$998,000 |
$12,973,766 |
| 2015 |
$12,800,000 |
92.5% |
$11,840,000 |
— |
| 2016 |
$14,300,000 |
82.2% |
$11,754,600 |
— |
| 2017 |
$16,900,000 |
64.9% |
$10,968,100 |
— |
| 2018 |
$17,400,000 |
57.2% |
$9,952,800 |
— |
| 2019 |
$19,200,000 |
34.5% |
$6,624,000 |
— |
| 2020 |
$21,400,000 |
18.1% |
$3,873,400 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$56,010,900 |
$12,973,766 |
| Total |
|
$68,984,666 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2014 |
$13,971,766 |
107.7% |
$15,047,592 |
| 2015 |
$11,840,000 |
— |
$11,840,000 |
| 2016 |
$11,754,600 |
— |
$11,754,600 |
| 2017 |
$10,968,100 |
— |
$10,968,100 |
| 2018 |
$9,952,800 |
— |
$9,952,800 |
| 2019 |
$6,624,000 |
— |
$6,624,000 |
| 2020 |
$3,873,400 |
|
$3,873,400 |
| Total: |
|
|
$70,060,492 |
| Jay Cutler |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2014 |
— |
99.4% |
— |
$22,500,000 |
| 2015 |
— |
94.2% |
— |
$15,500,000 |
| 2016 |
$16,000,000 |
80.1% |
$12,816,000 |
— |
| 2017 |
$15,000,000 |
31.7% |
$4,755,000 |
— |
| 2018 |
$16,000,000 |
25.8% |
$4,128,000 |
— |
| 2019 |
$20,000,000 |
11.8% |
$2,360,000 |
— |
| 2020 |
$21,700,000 |
5.4% |
$1,171,800 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$25,230,000 |
$38,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$63,230,000 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2014 |
$22,500,000 |
107.7% |
$24,232,500 |
| 2015 |
$15,500,000 |
— |
$15,500,000 |
| 2016 |
$12,816,000 |
— |
$12,816,000 |
| 2017 |
$4,755,000 |
— |
$4,755,000 |
| 2018 |
$4,128,000 |
— |
$4,128,000 |
| 2019 |
$2,360,000 |
— |
$2,360,000 |
| 2020 |
$1,171,800 |
— |
$1,171,800 |
| Total: |
|
|
$64,962,500 |
| Matt Ryan |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2013 |
— |
99.6% |
— |
$30,000,000 |
| 2014 |
$21,500,000 |
94.0% |
$11,750,000 |
— |
| 2015 |
$11,500,000 |
94.7% |
$10,890,500 |
— |
| 2016 |
$15,750,000 |
61.7% |
$9,717,750 |
— |
| 2017 |
$15,750,000 |
37.8% |
$5,953,500 |
— |
| 2018 |
$19,250,000 |
18.1% |
$3,484,250 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$41,796,000 |
$30,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$71,796,000 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2013 |
$30,000,000 |
116.5% |
$34,950,000 |
| 2014 |
$11,750,000 |
107.7% |
$12,654,750 |
| 2015 |
$10,890,500 |
— |
$10,890,500 |
| 2016 |
$9,717,750 |
— |
$9,717,750 |
| 2017 |
$5,953,500 |
— |
$5,953,500 |
| 2018 |
$3,484,250 |
— |
$3,484,250 |
| Total: |
|
|
$77,650,750 |
| Matthew Stafford |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2013 |
— |
100.0% |
— |
$31,500,000 |
| 2014 |
— |
99.7% |
— |
$2,000,000 |
| 2015 |
$1,500,000 |
96.1% |
$1,441,500 |
$8,000,000 |
| 2016 |
$17,000,000 |
57.7% |
$9,809,000 |
— |
| 2017 |
$16,500,000 |
40.1% |
$6,616,500 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$17,867,000 |
$41,500,000 |
| Total |
|
$59,367,000 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2013 |
$31,500,000 |
116.5% |
$36,697,500 |
| 2014 |
$2,000,000 |
107.7% |
$2,154,000 |
| 2015 |
$9,441,500 |
— |
$9,441,500 |
| 2016 |
$9,809,000 |
— |
$9,809,000 |
| 2017 |
$6,616,500 |
— |
$6,616,500 |
| Total: |
|
|
$64,718,500 |
| Aaron Rodgers |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2013 |
$500,000 |
100.0% |
$500,000 |
$37,750,000 |
| 2014 |
$1,400,000 |
99.3% |
$1,390,200 |
$9,500,000 |
| 2015 |
$2,100,000 |
94.1% |
$1,976,100 |
$9,500,000 |
| 2016 |
$12,600,000 |
64.4% |
$8,114,400 |
— |
| 2017 |
$13,650,000 |
48.2% |
$6,579,300 |
— |
| 2018 |
$20,900,000 |
20.5% |
$4,284,500 |
— |
| 2019 |
$21,100,000 |
10.6% |
$2,236,600 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$25,081,100 |
$56,750,000 |
| Total |
|
$81,831,100 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2013 |
$38,250,000 |
116.5% |
$44,561,250 |
| 2014 |
$10,890,200 |
107.7% |
$11,728,745 |
| 2015 |
$11,476,100 |
— |
$11,476,100 |
| 2016 |
$8,114,400 |
— |
$8,114,400 |
| 2017 |
$6,579,300 |
— |
$6,579,300 |
| 2018 |
$4,284,500 |
— |
$4,284,500 |
| 2019 |
$2,236,600 |
— |
$2,236,600 |
| Total: |
|
|
$88,980,895 |
| Tom Brady |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2013 |
— |
99.5% |
— |
$31,000,000 |
| 2014 |
— |
92.3% |
— |
$2,000,000 |
| 2015 |
$8,000,000 |
41.5% |
$3,320,000 |
— |
| 2016 |
$9,000,000 |
12.3% |
$1,107,000 |
— |
| 2017 |
$10,000,000 |
4.3% |
$430,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$4,857,000 |
$33,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$37,857,000 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2013 |
$31,000,000 |
116.5% |
$36,115,000 |
| 2014 |
$2,000,000 |
107.7% |
$2,154,000 |
| 2015 |
$3,320,000 |
— |
$3,320,000 |
| 2016 |
$1,107,000 |
— |
$1,107,000 |
| 2017 |
$430,000 |
— |
$430,000 |
| Total: |
|
|
$43,126,000 |
| Tony Romo |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2013 |
— |
99.5% |
— |
$26,500,000 |
| 2014 |
— |
89.0% |
— |
$13,500,000 |
| 2015 |
$17,000,000 |
64.4% |
$10,948,000 |
— |
| 2016 |
$8,500,000 |
42.4% |
$3,604,000 |
— |
| 2017 |
$14,000,000 |
21.6% |
$3,024,000 |
— |
| 2018 |
$19,500,000 |
7.5% |
$1,462,500 |
— |
| 2019 |
$20,500,000 |
3.5% |
$717,500 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$19,756,000 |
$40,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$59,756,000 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2013 |
$26,500,000 |
116.5% |
$30,872,500 |
| 2014 |
$13,500,000 |
107.7% |
$14,539,500 |
| 2015 |
$10,948,000 |
— |
$10,948,000 |
| 2016 |
$3,604,000 |
— |
$3,604,000 |
| 2017 |
$3,024,000 |
— |
$3,024,000 |
| 2018 |
$1,462,500 |
— |
$1,462,500 |
| 2019 |
$717,500 |
— |
$717,500 |
| Total: |
|
|
$65,168,000 |
| Joe Flacco |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2013 |
$1,000,000 |
99.9% |
$999,000 |
$29,000,000 |
| 2014 |
$21,000,000 |
95.8% |
$20,118,000 |
— |
| 2015 |
$11,000,000 |
90.9% |
$9,999,999 |
— |
| 2016 |
$18,000,000 |
59.8% |
$10,764,000 |
— |
| 2017 |
$20,600,000 |
31.4% |
$6,468,400 |
— |
| 2018 |
$20,000,000 |
17.4% |
$3,480,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$51,829,399 |
$29,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$80,829,399 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2013 |
$29,999,000 |
116.5% |
$34,948,835 |
| 2014 |
$20,118,000 |
107.7% |
$21,667,086 |
| 2015 |
$9,999,999 |
— |
$9,999,999 |
| 2016 |
$10,764,000 |
— |
$10,764,000 |
| 2017 |
$6,468,400 |
— |
$6,468,400 |
| 2018 |
$3,480,000 |
|
$3,480,000 |
| Total: |
|
|
$87,328,320 |
| Drew Brees |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2012 |
— |
99.5% |
— |
$40,000,000 |
| 2013 |
$10,000,000 |
86.4% |
$8,640,000 |
— |
| 2014 |
$11,000,000 |
56.7% |
$6,237,000 |
— |
| 2015 |
$19,000,000 |
16.3% |
$3,097,000 |
— |
| 2016 |
$20,000,000 |
7.5% |
$1,500,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$19,474,000 |
$40,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$59,474,000 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2012 |
$40,000,000 |
118.8% |
$47,520,000 |
| 2013 |
$8,640,000 |
116.5% |
$10,065,600 |
| 2014 |
$6,237,000 |
107.7% |
$6,717,249 |
| 2015 |
$3,097,000 |
— |
$3,097,000 |
| 2016 |
$1,500,000 |
— |
$1,500,000 |
| Total |
|
|
$68,899,849 |
| Peyton Manning |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2012 |
— |
88.0% |
— |
$18,000,000 |
| 2013 |
$20,000,000 |
35.4% |
$7,080,000 |
— |
| 2014 |
$20,000,000 |
51.4% |
$10,280,000 |
— |
| 2015 |
$19,000,000 |
7.8% |
$1,482,000 |
— |
| 2016 |
$19,000,000 |
3.1% |
$589,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$19,431,000 |
$18,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$37,431,000 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2012 |
$18,000,000 |
118.8% |
$21,384,000 |
| 2013 |
$7,080,000 |
116.5% |
$8,248,200 |
| 2014 |
10,280,000 |
107.7% |
$11,071,560 |
| 2015 |
$1,482,000 |
— |
$1,482,000 |
| 2016 |
$589,000 |
— |
$589,000 |
| Total: |
|
|
$42,774,760 |
| Michael Vick |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2011 |
— |
99.4% |
— |
$20,000,000 |
| 2012 |
— |
93.9% |
— |
$12,500,000 |
| 2013 |
$16,500,000 |
47.1% |
$7,771,500 |
— |
| 2014 |
$15,500,000 |
23.6% |
$3,658,000 |
— |
| 2015 |
$16,500,000 |
17.5% |
$2,887,500 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$14,317,000 |
$32,500,000 |
| Total |
|
$46,817,000 |
| |
| Year |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation |
Adjusted ECV |
| 2011 |
$20,000,000 |
119.4% |
$23,880,000 |
| 2012 |
$12,500,000 |
118.8% |
$14,850,000 |
| 2013 |
$7,771,500 |
116.5% |
$9,053,797 |
| 2014 |
$3,658,000 |
107.7% |
$3,939,666 |
| 2015 |
$2,887,500 |
— |
$2,887,500 |
| Total: |
|
|
$54,610,963 |