Earlier this week Jason gave his thoughts on Eli Manning’s new contract, and today I will share the Expected Contract Value numbers associated with the deal.
Manning’s Expected Contract Value is almost $57 million out of a deal that purportedly will pay him $101 million over that same five-year time frame ($84 million is the new money, which dictates the APY, which is factored into the ECV inputs). The ECV chart shown below identifies his Expected Outcomes for each season of the deal. As with all older players, ECV has determined that Manning is highly unlikely to play out the entirety of this contract.
| Eli Manning |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
— |
98.1% |
— |
$36,500,000 |
| 2016 |
$18,000,000 |
63.8% |
$11,483,190 |
— |
| 2017 |
$13,500,000 |
40.8% |
$5,504,661 |
— |
| 2018 |
$16,000,000 |
14.5% |
$2,314,806 |
|
| 2019 |
$17,000,000 |
7.0% |
$1,194,125 |
|
| Subtotal |
|
$20,496,783 |
$36,500,000 |
| Total |
|
$56,996,783 |
While I have mentioned in the past that ECV penalizes quarterbacks for age more than it should, it is still fair to compare this contract to the ones signed by Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers, as they are subject to the same issue. As can be seen below, Manning’s ECV is slightly less than that of Rivers and Roethlisberger, despite the face that his new money APY is higher than that of Rivers and his fully guaranteed money is higher than that of Roethlisberger.
One reason for this is that Manning is a full year older than the other quarterbacks. If he was 33 at the time of signing, rather than 34, his Expected Contract Value would increase to $59.75 million. Otherwise, though, the difference in ECV is fairly negligible because the total size and structures of the three contracts are essentially the same (large signing bonus, only first year base salary guaranteed). Where the total size of a set of contracts is so similar, we would only expect a large ECV difference where one of the players has a distinguishing structure characteristic such as an option bonus or waterfall base salary guarantees.
| Philip Rivers |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
— |
91.7% |
— |
$37,500,000 |
| 2016 |
$16,500,000 |
63.9% |
$10,543,500 |
— |
| 2017 |
$14,000,000 |
39.0% |
$5,460,000 |
— |
| 2018 |
$15,000,000 |
16.6% |
$2,490,000 |
— |
| 2019 |
$16,000,000 |
9.0% |
$1,440,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$19,933,500 |
$37,500,000 |
| Total |
|
$57,433,500 |
| Ben Roethlisberger |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Adjustment |
| 2015 |
$4,250,000 |
97.3% |
$4,135,250 |
$31,000,000 |
| 2016 |
$17,750,000 |
70.0% |
$12,425,000 |
— |
| 2017 |
$12,000,000 |
49.9% |
$5,988,000 |
— |
| 2018 |
$17,000,000 |
17.3% |
$2,941,000 |
— |
| 2019 |
$17,000,000 |
9.1% |
$1,547,000 |
— |
| Subtotal |
|
$27,036,250 |
$31,000,000 |
| Total |
|
$58,036,250 |
Updating my list of highest quarterback Expected Contract Values, Manning comes in toward the bottom of the list just behind Rivers but ahead of Ryan Tannehill. His ECV does not receive any inflation adjustment, as all of these numbers have been translated to 2015 equivalencies. Just as frame of reference, if Manning signed this contract at the age of 26, as Wilson and Newton were when they signed their contracts this year, his Expected Contract Value would have been $80.1 million. Alas, he is instead 34, and he is therefore unlikely to see much more than half of the $101 million he could potentially earn.
| Player |
Expected Contract Value |
Inflation Adjusted ECV |
| Newton |
$89,631,502 |
$89,631,502 |
| Rodgers |
$81,831,100 |
$88,980,895 |
| Flacco |
$80,829,399 |
$87,328,320 |
| Ryan |
$71,796,000 |
$77,650,750 |
| Kaepernick |
$68,984,666 |
$70,060,492 |
| Wilson |
$69,697,894 |
$69,697,894 |
| Brees |
$59,474,000 |
$68,899,849 |
| Romo |
$59,756,000 |
$65,168,000 |
| Cutler |
$63,230,000 |
$64,962,500 |
| Stafford |
$59,367,000 |
$64,718,500 |
| Dalton |
$59,965,097 |
$61,357,303 |
| Roethlisberger |
$58,036,250 |
$58,036,250 |
| Rivers |
$57,433,500 |
$57,433,500 |
| Manning |
$56,996,783 |
$56,996,783 |
| Tannehill |
$55,558,237 |
$55,558,237 |
| Vick |
$46,817,000 |
$54,610,963 |
| Smith |
$47,221,900 |
$48,684,900 |
| Brady |
$37,857,000 |
$43,126,000 |
| Manning |
$37,431,000 |
$42,774,760 |
Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”
Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs
Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison
Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting
Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions
Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.
Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.
Nicholas Barton is a junior at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.