Beginning the week of March 21st I will post positional reports based on Expected Contract Value with commentary and a depictions of the information that is easier to process, but for reference purposes I will continue to post the calculations on a rolling basis as they become available.
Lamar Miller, Eric Weddle, C.J. Anderson, Derrick Shelby, Casey Hayward, Derrick Johnson, Robert Ayers, Coty Sensabaugh, Chris Hogan, Jerrell Freeman, Akiam Hicks, Jon Ryan, Al Woods, and Eugene Sims.
| Lamar Miller |
| Stated Value: $26,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
99.4% |
— |
$8,500,000 |
| 2017 |
— |
95.5% |
— |
$5,500,000 |
| 2018 |
$5,750,000 |
73.1% |
$4,203,649 |
— |
| 2019 |
$6,250,000 |
33.3% |
$2,080,723 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$6,284,372 |
$14,000,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$20,284,372 (78%) |
| Eric Weddle |
| Stated Value: $26,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
95.5% |
— |
$9,000,000 |
| 2017 |
$4,000,000 |
72.5% |
$2,900,189 |
— |
| 2018 |
$6,500,000 |
31.1% |
$2,024,213 |
— |
| 2019 |
$6,250,000 |
11.6% |
$754,978 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$5,679,380 |
$9,000,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$14,679,380 (56%) |
| C.J. Anderson |
| Stated Value: $18,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
$100,000 |
99.2% |
$99,246 |
$5,900,000 |
| 2017 |
$3,000,000 |
94.7% |
$2,840,036 |
— |
| 2018 |
$4,500,000 |
73.3% |
$3,297,942 |
— |
| 2019 |
$4,500,000 |
32.9% |
$1,481,306 |
|
| Subtotal |
— |
$7,718,531 |
$5,900,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$13,618,531 |
| Derrick Shelby |
| Stated Value: $18,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
98.8% |
— |
$6,000,000 |
| 2017 |
$3,000,000 |
91.4% |
$2,740,921 |
— |
| 2018 |
$4,500,000 |
68.3% |
$3,071,256 |
— |
| 2019 |
$4,500,000 |
40.0% |
$1,798,848 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$7,611,024 |
$6,000,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$13,611,024 (76%) |
| Casey Hayward |
| Stated Value: $15,300,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
96.8% |
— |
$6,800,000 |
| 2017 |
$4,250,000 |
73.0% |
$3,101,858 |
— |
| 2018 |
$4,250,000 |
42.9% |
$1,824,400 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$4,926,258 |
$6,800,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$11,726,258 (77%) |
| Derrick Johnson |
| Stated Value: $21,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
$250,000 |
88.9% |
$222,185 |
$6,750,000 |
| 2017 |
$4,000,000 |
43.6% |
$1,742,661 |
$2,000,000 |
| 2018 |
$8,000,000 |
9.3% |
$742,948 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$2,707,794 |
$8,750,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$11,457,794 (55%) |
| Robert Ayers |
| Stated Value: $19,500,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
85.9% |
— |
$7,500,000 |
| 2017 |
$6,000,000 |
41.5% |
$2,490,331 |
— |
| 2018 |
$6,000,000 |
21.0% |
$1,260,633 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$3,750,963 |
$7,500,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$11,250,963 (%) |
| Coty Sensabaugh |
| Stated Value: $14,500,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
96.3% |
— |
$4,500,000 |
| 2017 |
$4,000,000 |
68.5% |
$2,740,487 |
$1,000,000 |
| 2018 |
$5,000,000 |
36.3% |
$1,816,857 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$4,557,344 |
$5,500,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$10,057,344 |
| Chris Hogan |
| Stated Value: $12,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
$500,000 |
96.6% |
$483,077 |
$5,000,000 |
| 2017 |
$500,000 |
82.4% |
$412,061 |
$2,500,000 |
| 2018 |
$4,000,000 |
37.5% |
$1,498,663 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$2,393,801 |
$7,500,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$9,893,801 (82%) |
| Jerrell Freeman |
| Stated Value: $12,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
94.1% |
— |
$5,000,000 |
| 2017 |
$2,500,000 |
63.0% |
$1,573,952 |
$1,000,000 |
| 2018 |
$3,500,000 |
28.4% |
$993,600 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$2,567,552 |
$6,000,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$8,567,552 (71%) |
| Akiem Hicks |
| Stated Value: $10,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
96.5% |
— |
$5,000,000 |
| 2017 |
$5,000,000 |
64.8% |
$3,238,013 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$3,238,013 |
$5,000,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$8,238,013 (82%) |
| Jon Ryan |
| Stated Value: $10,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
97.4% |
— |
$3,400,000 |
| 2017 |
$1,000,000 |
91.4% |
$914,307 |
— |
| 2018 |
$2,600,000 |
66.3% |
$1,723,697 |
— |
| 2019 |
$3,000,000 |
45.6% |
$1,367,000 |
|
| Subtotal |
— |
$4,005,004 |
$3,400,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$7,405,004 (74%) |
| Al Woods |
| Stated Value: $10,500,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
$250,000 |
95.0% |
$237,379 |
$3,750,000 |
| 2017 |
$3,000,000 |
66.6% |
$1,996,666 |
— |
| 2018 |
$3,500,000 |
32.2% |
$1,126,729 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$3,360,775 |
$3,750,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$7,110,775 (68%) |
| Eugene Sims |
| Stated Value: $10,000,000 |
| Year |
Salary |
Expected Outcome |
Expected Value |
Guaranteed |
| 2016 |
— |
89.5% |
— |
$3,000,000 |
| 2017 |
$3,250,000 |
48.2% |
$1,567,755 |
— |
| 2018 |
$3,750,000 |
22.4% |
$840,585 |
— |
| Subtotal |
— |
$2,408,340 |
$3,000,000 |
| Expected Contract Value: |
$5,408,340 (54%) |
Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nick Barton.
Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate M&A associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail atbryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.
Nick Barton is a junior at the McDonough School Business at Georgetown University. He is majoring in Finance and Operations and Information Management. Nick currently interns with an NFL team . His prior work experience includes interning with CollegeSplits and Dynamic Sports Solutions, and working as a research assistant for the Center of Applied Research of the Apostolate.