Expected Contract Value forecasts that AJ Green can expect to see about $52.27 million of the $70.176 million he is schedule to earn over the next 5 seasons. This comes in behind Julio Jones ($57.286M [ignoring the 2020 contract year]) and Dez Bryant ($55.3M), but ahead of Demaryius Thomas ($50.511M) and TY Hilton ($44.152M). But keep in mind that Green’s fully guaranteed money at signing ($26.75M) is well behind that of Bryant ($32M), Thomas ($35M), and Jones ($35.5M). This goes to show that fully guaranteed money is generally overrated in contract analysis. It has an affect on the earnings expectation of a player, but if the difference is whether or not the second year base salary is fully guaranteed, then the difference is going to be minimal. Numbers for all of the WRs below the break:
| AJ Green | ||||
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.3% | — | $26,750,000 |
| 2016 | $10,000,000 | 90.4% | $9,038,219 | — |
| 2017 | $10,500,000 | 73.1% | $7,671,924 | — |
| 2018 | $10,750,000 | 47.6% | $5,111,914 | |
| 2019 | $12,176,000 | 30.4% | $3,698,301 | |
| Subtotal | $25,520,361 | $26,750,000 | ||
| Total | $52,270,361 | |||
| Julio Jones | ||||
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.9% | — | $22,000,000 |
| 2016 | — | 98.5% | — | $13,500,000 |
| 2017 | $11,500,000 | 79.4% | $9,125,339 | — |
| 2018 | $10,500,000 | 63.1% | $6,629,630 | |
| 2019 | $12,500,000 | 48.2% | $6,031,021 | |
| 2020 | $11,426,000 | 27.8% | $3,181,824 | |
| Subtotal | $24,967,814 | $35,500,000 | ||
| Total | $60,467,814 | |||
| Dez Bryant | ||||
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 100.0% | — | $23,000,000 |
| 2016 | — | 98.8% | — | $9,000,000 |
| 2017 | $13,000,000 | 95.3% | $12,389,000 | — |
| 2018 | $12,500,000 | 52.4% | $6,550,000 | |
| 2019 | $12,500,000 | 34.9% | $4,362,500 | |
| Subtotal | $23,301,500 | $32,000,000 | ||
| Total | $55,301,500 | |||
| Demaryius Thomas | ||||
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.9% | — | $22,000,000 |
| 2016 | — | 97.4% | — | $13,000,000 |
| 2017 | $8,500,000 | 72.7% | $6,179,500 | — |
| 2018 | $12,500,000 | 44.3% | $5,537,500 | |
| 2019 | $14,000,000 | 27.1% | $3,794,000 | |
| Subtotal | $15,511,000 | $35,000,000 | ||
| Total | $50,511,000 | |||
| TY Hilton | ||||
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.9% | — | $11,000,000 |
| 2016 | $9,000,000 | 93.7% | $8,433,000 | — |
| 2017 | $8,000,000 | 86.1% | $6,888,000 | — |
| 2018 | $11,000,000 | 65.4% | $7,194,000 | |
| 2019 | $13,000,000 | 51.4% | $6,682,000 | |
| 2020 | $14,542,000 | 27.2% | $3,955,424 | |
| Subtotal | $33,152,424 | $11,000,000 | ||
| Total | $44,152,424 | |||
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