With the first NFL cutdown complete I wanted to take a look at how the 2022 undrafted players have fared thus far. The first look is to see the success rates based on the guaranteed salary of the players. Please note that these numbers are based on the result of the player’s original contract with the team who signed them. They may or may not still be in the NFL as that is something I’ll look at that after the final roster cutdowns.
| Guarantee | Players | Active | Waived |
| $1-$4,999 | 69 | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| $0 | 69 | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| $5,000-$14,999 | 122 | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| $15,000-$29,999 | 57 | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| $30,000-$49,999 | 33 | 75.8% | 24.2% |
| $50,000-$74,999 | 56 | 80.4% | 19.6% |
| $200,000+ | 15 | 86.7% | 13.3% |
| $75,000-$99,999 | 32 | 87.5% | 12.5% |
| $100,000-$199,999 | 52 | 90.4% | 9.6% |
| TOTAL | 505 | 68.9% | 31.1% |
Certainly it would seem that the level of guarantee has had an impact on who has and has not been retained thus far. Of players receiving a minor guarantee the hit rate has been just 46%. Players with no guarantees and guarantees between $5,000 and $15,000 are around 60%. Those numbers rise to 75% for those guaranteed between $15,000 and $50,000 and we move into the 80% range for the other categories. $75,000 seems to be a reasonable number for a team to offer to at least have a higher probability of keeping players through the first cut.
Here is a look at where each team stands with their initial UDFA signings in 2022.
| TEAM | Guarantee | GPP | % Active | Remaining Guarantee | Remaining Guar. % |
| Bears | $277,000 | $12,591 | 40.9% | $238,000 | 85.9% |
| Packers | $87,500 | $5,833 | 46.7% | $42,000 | 48.0% |
| Rams | $163,000 | $9,588 | 47.1% | $87,000 | 53.4% |
| Cardinals | $406,000 | $22,556 | 50.0% | $145,000 | 35.7% |
| Commanders | $657,500 | $38,676 | 52.9% | $487,000 | 74.1% |
| Patriots | $425,000 | $35,417 | 58.3% | $385,000 | 90.6% |
| Broncos | $638,000 | $49,077 | 61.5% | $430,000 | 67.4% |
| Lions | $860,000 | $66,154 | 61.5% | $615,000 | 71.5% |
| Jaguars | $1,151,000 | $54,810 | 61.9% | $837,000 | 72.7% |
| Bills | $272,500 | $19,464 | 64.3% | $93,000 | 34.1% |
| Steelers | $111,500 | $7,964 | 64.3% | $74,500 | 66.8% |
| Colts | $595,900 | $24,829 | 66.7% | $570,400 | 95.7% |
| Seahawks | $142,000 | $7,889 | 66.7% | $83,000 | 58.5% |
| Saints | $1,242,000 | $65,368 | 68.4% | $1,186,500 | 95.5% |
| Giants | $951,000 | $59,438 | 68.8% | $831,500 | 87.4% |
| Panthers | $612,500 | $38,281 | 68.8% | $595,000 | 97.1% |
| Falcons | $584,000 | $34,353 | 70.6% | $482,000 | 82.5% |
| Ravens | $250,000 | $13,889 | 72.2% | $197,000 | 78.8% |
| Dolphins | $809,500 | $53,967 | 73.3% | $714,500 | 88.3% |
| Eagles | $1,922,000 | $128,133 | 73.3% | $1,667,000 | 86.7% |
| 49ers | $602,500 | $46,346 | 76.9% | $537,500 | 89.2% |
| Titans | $666,500 | $35,079 | 78.9% | $616,500 | 92.5% |
| Browns | $710,000 | $47,333 | 80.0% | $670,000 | 94.4% |
| Raiders | $954,000 | $63,600 | 80.0% | $909,000 | 95.3% |
| Buccaneers | $278,500 | $17,406 | 81.3% | $258,500 | 92.8% |
| Jets | $460,000 | $76,667 | 83.3% | $375,000 | 81.5% |
| Texans | $683,000 | $56,917 | 83.3% | $590,500 | 86.5% |
| Chiefs | $404,000 | $31,077 | 84.6% | $403,000 | 99.8% |
| Chargers | $93,000 | $7,154 | 84.6% | $85,000 | 91.4% |
| Cowboys | $1,842,500 | $87,738 | 85.7% | $1,647,500 | 89.4% |
| Bengals | $146,000 | $8,111 | 88.9% | $143,500 | 98.3% |
| Vikings | $609,750 | $60,975 | 90.0% | $609,750 | 100.0% |
| NFL. Avg. | $612,739 | $40,209 | 69.9% | $518,942 | 80.7% |
The Bears had the least success rate but as a team bringing in a number of players to try to stick that is pretty expected. They still have about 85% of their guarantees still on the roster, so that would be above average for more targeted UDFA signings. The Packers and Rams are both under 50% and their guarantee levels are very similar, so they haven’t had any more or less success based on who they guaranteed salary for. This could be a case of just not having the openings. Neither team put a priority here with the Packers offering the lowest guarantee per player this year and the Rams being the 6th lowest.
Arizona has 50% of the players still on the roster but has already cut 65% of the guarantees they gave out, which might indicate a pretty poor prioritization of UDFA resources. The only team worse than them in this regard is Buffalo who has 64% active but just 34% of the guarantees still on the active roster.
The top hit rate is in Minnesota with 90% of the players still on the roster and 100% of the guarantees still on the team. They had the 7th highest amount guaranteed per player so they put a lot of effort into identifying this group. The Bengals have 89% of the UDFAs remaining but are among the lowest spenders. I rarely read into the Bengals numbers here as they will prioritize keeping guys as long as possible if they have any sunk investment in the player.
Dallas is number 3 and they put a massive priority here. Their $1.8M spent on UDFAs is second only to the Eagles as is their $87K average guarantee. Dallas has grown very risk averse in free agency so they are clearly looking to hit with their UDFAs. They have 85% of the players still on the team. The Chiefs and Chargers round out the top five with just under 85% each.
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