2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC East
As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season. Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy. ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team. I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up. I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision. As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.
I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more. First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low. At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot. Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website. As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.
New England Patriots:
| Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
| Rob Gronkowski | 99.4% | NO | |
| Marcus Cannon | 91.6% | NO | |
| Julian Edelman | 82.2% | NO | |
| Chandler Jones | 80.9% | NO | |
| Patrick Chung | 76.9% | NO | |
| Jerod Mayo | 76.1% | NO | |
| Brandon LaFell | 72.6% | NO | |
| Donta Hightower | 71.2% | NO | |
| Danny Amendola | 71.2% | NO | |
| Kyle Arrington | 65.8% | NO | |
| Rob Ninkovich | 58.3% | NO | |
| Brandon Browner | 49.0% | YES | |
| Sebastian Vollmer | 43.2% | YES | |
| Tom Brady | 41.5% | YES | |
| Ryan Wendell | 32.3% | YES | |
| Darrelle Revis | 27.2% | YES | |
| Vince Wilfork | 22.2% | YES |
New York Jets:
| Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
| Sheldon Richardson | 98.7% | NO | |
| Eric Decker | 97.0% | NO | |
| Dee Milliner | 97.0% | NO | |
| Jeremy Kerley | 96.5% | NO | |
| Percy Harvin | 89.8% | NO | |
| Breno Giacomini | 88.9% | NO | |
| Quinten Coples | 87.2% | NO | |
| Nick Folk | 73.0% | NO | |
| D’Brickashaw Ferguson | 61.6% | NO | |
| Nick Mangold | 52.3% | NO | |
| Chris Ivory | 51.6% | NO | |
| Chris Johnson | 36.6% | YES | YES |
| Calvin Pace | 14.5% | YES |
Miami Dolphins:
| Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
| Brandon Albert | 96.0% | NO | |
| Dion Jordan | 92.5% | NO | |
| Brent Grimes | 87.6% | NO | |
| Mike Wallace | 80.8% | NO | |
| Philip Wheeler | 76.5% | NO | |
| Koa Misi | 75.1% | NO | |
| Brian Hartline | 72.7% | NO | |
| Reshad Jones | 72.7% | NO | |
| Ryan Tannehill | 68.9% | NO | |
| Dannell Ellerbe | 58.6% | NO | |
| Brandon Gibson | 44.7% | YES | |
| Shelley Smith | 42.4% | YES | |
| Brandon Fields | 32.6% | YES | |
| Randy Starks | 26.4% | YES | |
| Cortland Finnegan | 26.3% | YES | |
| Cameron Wake | 20.3% | YES |
Buffalo Bills:
| Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
| Sammy Watkins | 99.9% | NO | |
| Aaron Williams | 99.6% | NO | |
| EJ Manuel | 98.3% | NO | |
| Stephon Gilmore | 87.7% | NO | |
| Eric Wood | 82.2% | NO | |
| Dan Carpenter | 79.5% | NO | |
| Chris Williams | 77.3% | NO | |
| Corey Graham | 73.8% | NO | |
| Mario Williams | 61.7% | NO | |
| Kraig Urbik | 54.3% | NO | |
| Leodis McKelvin | 53.8% | NO | |
| Manny Lawson | 45.8% | YES | |
| Kyle Williams | 45.6% | YES | |
| Keith Rivers | 42.0% | YES | |
| Scott Chandler | 33.3% | YES | |
| Fred Jackson | 13.0% | YES |
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